Washington Institute discusses the future of democracy in the Middle East

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy held its Soref Symposium today. The panel consisted of former Israeli minister Natan Sharansky, former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. and chief Israeli negotiator with Syria Itamar Rabinovich, former CIA director James Woolsey and Dennis Ross of the Washington Institute.

Sharansky said that in order for the U.S. to be successful in the Middle East it must follow its own principles, comparing its assertion of principles during the cold war, to the kind of principles needed now in the region. The two values he said he felt were most important to Israel’s cause were democracy and a strong national state.

Rabinovich said that as a country the U.S. must determine pillars that can be used to sustain a strong, positive relationship in the 21st century. He said that these pillars need to encapsulate values and interests shared by the U.S. and Israel. Also, Rabinovich said that the main threat to democracy in the Middle East and to America is Iran and radical terrorist groups.

Former CIA director Woolsey said that the major problem facing the U.S. and Israel is the threat of two prominent and wealthy totalitarian regimes, the Wahabi family in Saudi Arabia and the modern Shiite movement since 1979. He said that the only way to limit the power of these regimes was to end American dependence on foreign oil.

Ross discussed that the best way to create lasting public policy is to make it relate to American values, which our people will most passionately respond to. He also said that the movement to delegitimize Israel is the newest form of anti-Semitism, and that Israel is faced with the same enemies that the U.S. is faced with.

Petraeus: It would be an honor to serve

In his speech addressing Congress before the full committee hearing on his nomination to be reappointed to grade of general and to be commander of the United States Central Command, General David Petraeus said there are four concerns. The first is violent extremism, including but not limited to al Qaida. Second, weapons of mass destruction and lack of transparency by countries such as Iran, which he said is a major cause of concern. Third, lack of sustainable economic development in the Middle East, which is a serious security concern, as poor communities can cause hotbeds of extremism. Fourth, narcotics and arms smuggling which can threaten legitimate operations and can help out terrorists. While this is not an exhaustive list, he said, this is a basic list.

A purely military solution is not the solution, he said, and the approach should be to first seek to strengthen our international partnerships with which to pursue our mutual interests. If he is confirmed, he said, he will search for comprehensive results, by looking for the underlying reasons for issues. I will work tirelessly as a combatant commander and Congress to work that those serving have best equipment, and care for those that have been wounded, Petraeus said. This is a sacred obligation that I take very seriously, he said, and it will mean carrying the heaviest rucksack I’ve ever shouldered, just as our soldiers are carrying heavy rucksacks now. There can be no alternative but to soldier on with them, to help us carry out our assigned mission. It would be an honor, he said, to serve.

Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, appearing before the committee to be considered for appointment to the grade of general and to be commander of the Multi-National Force-Iraq, said that as he reflects on his nomination, he’s humbled and honored. He understands the great cost our nation has endured in Iraq, and the responsibility that comes with his position. Integrity, commitment and drive that such a position demands, is something that he hopes to bring with him should he be confirmed to his position.

During the initial speech of Petraeus, Code Pink caused a major disruption by shouting, screaming, and demonstrating their anti-war cause while wearing outfits that were depicting “bloody clothes” and “death.” While the Capitol Police removed them and Senator Carl Levin (D- Mich), Chairman, asked them to be quiet and refrain from demonstrating vocally. The remaining Code Pink members sat silently, holding signs that said “Stop the Killing” and “Endless War,” but not creating further disruptions.

Senate urges pressure on Saudi Arabia to increase oil production

Five senators held a press conference today immediately following a vote on a Democratic proposal to “suspend filling the nearly full Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in order to increase supply and lower energy prices,” the official release said. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) said that Saudi Arabia currently produces nearly two million barrels of oil per day below capacity, and said that prices would likely lower by 50 cents per gallon in the next month or two if they increased production by just one million barrels per day. Schumer said that himself and the other senators wanted to present President Bush with a “motion of disapproval” of the Saudi arms deal, and urge him to put pressure on the Saudis to increase productivity and lower prices as he leaves for his trip to the Middle East today. “We are saying to the Saudis that ‘if you don’t help us, why should we be helping you?’” Schumer said. “You need our arms, but we need you to cooperate and not strangle American consumers.”

Sen. Bernard Sanders (D-VT) said that OPEC functions as a cartel, and that it is time for Pres. Bush to say to OPEC that “we are going to challenge their very existence,” so they can no longer “limit production and artificially raise prices.” Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) said that Bush “needs to demonstrate leadership,” and while he is “talking to the Saudis about oil production as he should, he should have done it long ago.”

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) said that she is “pleased” that the Senate was able to pass the amendment today, but she “would rather see a comprehensive package.” She added, “but if we’re going to have to do it one scrap at a time, that’s how we’ll do it.”

America's Oil: Good to the last drop

By Ellen Ratner

As I sit here writing this column from the oil rich Middle East, I am reflecting on the political oil wars that we are hearing so much about from President Bush, Congress and the presidential candidates. Yet, no matter our favorite party, branch of government or candidate, the whole story is not being told.

During the last week in April, there were press briefings galore in Congress with words and accusations flying everywhere. The price of oil is killing our economy, small airlines are folding and larger ones are laying off employees or trying to merge. Trucks and their drivers are parading around the Capitol on a daily basis, honking horns and making it clear that it is difficult to survive with the gas prices so high.

The Democrats want the president to stop adding to the strategic oil reserve, which is 97 percent full. So far the president has not budged. The Democrats figure that it could save Americans 5 to 24 cents per gallon. Their plan put forward in four congressional bills includes holding OPEC accountable for price fixing (HR 2264), cracking down on gas price gouging (HR 1252), repealing subsidies to oil companies, investing in renewables (HR 5351) and developing new mileage standards (HR 6).



During several of the pressers, the Democrats rattled their swords. They pointed out that the Saudis had reduced their oil output by 800,000 barrels a day since 2005. Then came the threat, saying that Congress would "block their, (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE), lucrative arms deals." Of course Americans would be on the Democrats' side on this one. Why should we sell arms to countries that are making record profits? The answer is two words: Russia and China. Having just returned from Sudan, it is clear that as soon as the United States opts out of oil production, then China is going to opt in. If that means the price of entry is arms sales, then China and Russia are going to "pay that price" and sell arms. The threat of no arms sales sounds great to the Americans watching the evening news, but it is short sighted indeed.

All of this saber rattling took place against the backdrop of Exxon Mobil releasing its quarterly profits, which are a whopping $10.25 billion for the quarter. The numbers look great for oil investors now, but there are clouds over the horizon, and the large investors are well aware of the darkening cloud cover.

That cloud is called Hubbert's peak. M. King Hubbert predicated in the mid '50s that the world was reaching peak oil production and that the United States would reach it by 1970. He was laughed at and disregarded. Hubbert was right, and one member of Congress has been the lone voice for Hubbert's Peak and the implications that it brings. That member is Republican scientist Roscoe Bartlett from Maryland. As the lone wolf he has said, "You can't pump what is not there." This might explain why there is less oil being pumped from Saudi Arabia. They might be close to peak oil production. There was a stated increase in Saudi "oil reserves" about 10 years ago, but there is no data real data to back up this alleged "find." Saudi Arabia going dry is a very scary situation for the economy and Middle Eastern stability, and cutting off arms sales isn't going to change that fact.

Ordering GAO studies, Rep. Bartlett has continually been on the floor of the House showing graphs and pushing for renewables and alternative energy sources. He was also first out of the box to discuss what he terms as the "investment risk" of doing business with countries that have the largest proven reserves and carry the most political risk. Those just happen to be Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela. He has many ideas, including plans for the U.S. to achieve energy independence. One is a bill for "net metering" which encourages Americans to sell back any energy they produce using solar, wind and other alternative energy sources.

There are numerous ways to mitigate the effects of peak oil in the U.S. or anywhere else, but these require long-term planning, investment and action. Idle threats such as cutting off arms sales or stopping CEOs from taking home more bacon are not going to address the problem. Rep. Bartlett has been saying what no one wants to hear. It is time we paid attention.

News from the United Nations 2.4.08

Today Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was in Bucharest, Romania.  The SG met with NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and discussed tomorrow's meeting on Afghanistan.  In a written statement, the Secretary-General indicated that the two "discussed various issues of mutual interest and concern, starting with the situation in Afghanistan, and Kosovo, the Millennium Development Goals, regional offices and fighting against crime. I am also grateful for the kind gesture to allow shelter to refugees."

Later this week Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes will travel to the middle east to discuss partnership and collaboration between the United Nations, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.  Mr. Holmes will meet with top-level government officials, and Red Cross affiliates.  On April 8th he will deliver the key-note address at the Dubai International Humanitarian Aid and Development Conference.

Today the United Nations issued a report stating school enrollment in South Sudan is expected to surpass 1 million.  According to the UN, Last year enrollment was approximately 340,000 students; this year enrollment will be 1.3 million. Since 2007, in conjunction with the government of South Sudan, the 'Go to School' United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) has worked to develop permanent education facilities, as well as construct a stable education infrastructure.