Panel Spars Over Diplomatic Influence Of Post-Nuclear Iran
At a panel of leading foreign policy experts hosted by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) on Friday, Ambassador John Limbert, former deputy assistant Secretary of State, declared that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons won’t significantly alter in influence on the global environment.
“I heard that the comment that an Iranian nuclear weapon would change everything in the region,” Limbert said. “Well, I’m sure it would change some things, but there are certain things it would not change and Iran would remain essentially isolated and diplomatically weak as it is today.”
Other panel members, however, disagreed with Limbert.
John Hannah, former national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney, said that an Iranian nuclear weapon would greatly increase Iran’s economic and diplomatic global influence.
“With a country as important as Iran - as large as it is, as influential as it is, with as much oil as it has - there could be an awful lot of people flowing back to deal with Iranians,” Hannah said. “That sanctions regime and isolation will, in fact, inevitably erode and eventually disappear.”
Stephen Rademaker, former assistant Secretary of State, echoed Hannah’s sentiments and explained that if Iran had nuclear weapons during their proxy war with Israel in 2006, they would have been more liberal in their tactics against Israel.
“Iran, in that war, had to be restrained,” Rademaker said. “There was a level of escalation beyond which Israel would stop hitting back at Hezbollah, the proxy, and they would hit back at the patron of the proxy.”
“Nuclear weapons change that,” Rademaker continued. “If Tehran has nuclear weapons the ability of Israel to hit back at the patron, the real sponsor of the war, is substantially diminished.”
Limbert, however, claimed that his fellow panelists’ alternate opinion is based on a general misconception of Iran’s power.
After comparing Iran to a backgammon player that improvises frequently, Limbert expressed that, “this lack of contact, this lack of engagement…has led to a distorted image of what they can do and what they are capable of.”