AEI discussion Iranian influence in the Middle East

At the The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) discussion on "Iranian Influence in the Middle East and Beyond," Danielle Pletka of AEI said looking at the Iranian "reach" from the past helps us gets some insight into the regime’s intent in Iraq. There are a lot of telling signs of change, she said, using as an example the economy in Syria, and how Iran is becoming a dominant role there. Iran imports weapons from Russia, and then provides them to Syria, she said. In regards to Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah, they provide diplomatic, military, and economic support. They have taken a ‘very prominent role’ in the re-armament of the Lebanese.

Kimberly Kagan, President of the Institute for the Study of War, said Iran has been a force of instability in Iraq since 2003. Beyond discussion of weapons, she said, there are a lot of other influences, and that the provision of weapons is just one leg of the story. What is surprising in Iranian policy, she said, is the creation of the secret cells which have become an independent entity. The Iranian and Hezbollah Connection to special Groups in Iraq have been reorganized, Kagan said. She said they have been watching more advisers operating across Iraq to keep the militia running.

Frederick Kagan of AEI said one of the things that is an issue is Iranian weapons supplied to Afghanistan. Too often in a discussion, he said, people tend to look at the regime of Iran from their own point of view. A very important issue, he said, is the Afghanistan refugees in Iran. On the one hand, he said, they have let the Afghans move pretty freely and in general terms have treated them very well, but recently have decided that "enough is enough." In April 2007, Iran began a process of rounding up refugees and migrant workers and "dumping them" in Afghanistan without notifying the Afghan government.

Secretary Condoleezza Rice testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Budget 2009 Hearing

At the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Budget for Fiscal Year 2009 Hearing, Representative Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), said there are many developments in the present that were of concern. At the top of the list, she said, is the "accelerating spread of the capacity to make nuclear weapons." She said the threat to the world’s security is obvious, and said the nuclear fuel in a reactor can be used in "dirty bombs."

She went on to say that our efforts in North Korea to have them give up their nuclear weapons program has encountered obstacles, and that we are in danger of making the same errors we have made in the past. The greatest threat to the world’s security, she said, is Iran’s determination to lay the foundation for a nuclear weapons program.

Lehtinen said that China and Russia continue to assist Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, and said "I regret that the Olympics are being held in the capital of a country which does not respect the human rights of its own population."

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that "we’ve made a lot of progress" over the last several years. In Iraq, she said, we really did not have an institution that could deal with the restructuring. If America does not stand for freedom, liberty, and the rights of the oppressed, she said, then nobody will.

Chairman Howard Berman (D-CA) asked Rice if the American people should be worried about Iran’s nuclear capability. Rice answered the enrichment of fissile materials were of a great danger. In answer to questions from Lehtinen, she said that we have worked with the Army Corps of Engineers to deal with the tunnels in Egypt and the smuggling problems. She said it’s important to note that there are intensive discussions going on with the Egyptians and the Israelis to find a solution that involves all parties, but has no intention of talking to Haamas.

For Afghan reconstruction, Rice said that there is "about a billion dollars" being requested. In response to Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Rice said our commitment to Afghanistan over the last six years has been over 20 billion dollars. This was in defense to the statement by Rohrabacher about the budget being overfunded in the favor of humanitarian assistance programs such as AIDS research.

Representative Robert Wexler (D-FL) said that Rice and Prez Bush made a total of 935 false public statements pre-9/11 in an orchestrated attempt to be misleading about the war. Rice said "I take my integrity very seriously."

Talking Points: American Enterprise Institute event on bloggers in the Middle East

Speaking were:

Arash Sigarchi, an Iranian blogger who had been sentenced to 14 years in prison for espionage and insulting the country's leaders, speaking through an interpretter

Mohammed Ali, an Iraqi blogger (http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/)

Tony Badran, a Lebanese blogger (http://beirut2bayside.blogspot.com/)

Arash in his opening statement described how he was forced into blogging by the pervasive censorship of the media in Iran. Publishing anything critical of the government results in beatings, fines, and jail. When Arash began blogging, the government was largely unaware of the Internet, so he was free to publish whatever he wanted. In recent years, though, it has begun monitoring the Internet. Arash said that western funds to promote democracy in Iraq allows the government to brand bloggers and others as mouthpieces of the US, so a better form of aid would be to help people get Internet access. Responding to a question from Paul Wolfowitz about the reach of Voice of America and other media, Arash also said that access to western media is more limited than access to drugs. He also noted that Ahmadinejad is still quite popular, and the general people don't know about economic sanctions against Iran.

Ali, an Iraqi blogger, said that he had spoken with other bloggers, in both Iraq and Sudan, who had been inspired by him to begin blogging. Arab media outlets are heavily government funded, but blogging allows independent people to express themselves cheaply. Blogging can be difficult, though, because Internet access is scarce.

Tony Badran said that in Lebanon, where Internet access and access to western media are much more common, blogging presents other difficulties. Blogs are being used for propaganda and conspiracy theories by Syria, and it can be difficult to distinguish genuine citizen blogs from Syrian "info ops."

White House Gaggle with Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto

The president had his normal briefings and will meet this morning with Ambassador Richard Williamson, special envoy to Sudan. Fratto said that the White House continues to push for movement of peace keeping troops in Sudan and is firmly committed to working with the United Nations on the peace process in Sudan. Fratto said that the president was pleased with his trip to the Middle East and might give some kind of recap or briefing to that effect early next week.

This afternoon the president will have a conference call with congressional leaders about the "economic landscape." The meeting will include Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulsen. The participants are expected to talk about economic data and the possibility of an economic stimulus package. Fratto was quick to point out that no matter what short term measures might be decided on, the White House supports making permanent the Bush tax cuts as they believe they will be beneficial in the long term. "The president does believe that in the short term some boost is necessary," Fratto said.

Fratto referred to the economic data the president has been examining for week "mixed."

"Most economists in the private sector are not predicting a recession," he said. He said that the president wants to work together with congressional leaders on what should be done about this "soft patch in the economy." He said the White House sees this as an economic slowdown in the short term, but would not elaborate on what kinds of components the administration support in a solution. Fratto said that the call was an opportunity for the president to listen to the congressional leadership and what their advisors are saying about economic conditions.

"We would like to see Congress act quickly on the housing issue," Fratto said. He pointed out several factors the White House believes to be contributing to the slowdown and mentioned the housing and mortgage problems and rising energy costs. In terms of a possible legislative solution, Fratto said that President Bush is leaving all options on the table.

On the NIE on Iran, Fratto said that the president stands by the "full scope of the NIE findings, including the fact that Iran had a weapons program."

Pentagon PM Report

The Pentagon has announced a one-time, seven-month deployment for 3,200 Marines to Afghanistan starting in March. Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell stressed that this was a “one time…extraordinary…finite” deployment and discouraged labeling it as a surge. “A surge, I think, at least in the Iraq definition of things, was a plussing up of forces for an indefinite period of time,” Morrell said. “This is a plussing up of forces, and a significant one.”

Morrell said that this decision reflected a new ability to fulfill a long-standing desire of commanders on the ground with an addition of forces for the Afghanistan spring and summer or “fighting season.”

“Finding these forces has been difficult,” he said. “The Marines, I believe, have made a decision that they can, at least temporarily, continue this heightened operational tempo for a little longer to meet the needs expressed by the commanders in Afghanistan.”

 The forces will be divided between combat operations and the ongoing training mission of Afghan national police and the Afghan army. Morrell said this deployment would be finite regardless of conditions on the ground next December when the seven months are up. He said that NATO member countries might be called on to “back-fill” positions vacated by the Marines when they redeploy by the end of the year.

The Secretary of Defense Robert Gates met with a delegation from Poland, including the Defense Minister, Bogdan Klich. The main focus of private talks between the two officials was strategic missile defense and the possibility of placing missile defense technology in Poland. Poland is one of the top recipients of military aid in Europe.

Finally, Morrell addressed an incident last Sunday when five Iranian fast boats threatened US warships in the Persian Gulf. He said that the combined threats of the five boats, their interference with the US ships’ travel path, releasing "white boxes" in their wake, and troubling radio transmissions were enough to make the threat significant to the Pentagon. He also said that any notion of the Pentagon's media response being timed or hyped up to coincide with Bush's trip to the Middle East was “absurd.”