House Republicans Ready Enhanced Sanctions Against Belarus

By Agot Deng

Rep. Christopher Smith (R-NJ) said Monday that the U.S. and EU should work together to increase efforts to bring about democratic reform to Belarus.

Today marked the one-year anniversary of the bloody December 19, 2010 election-night crackdown in Belarus, which, in the words of Smith, “swept up more than 700 opposition supporters who dared to challenge the rule of Alexander Lukashenka.”

“The last year has been an awful one for the Belarusian people,” Smith told reporters. “The tactics employed on the infamous election night…and afterwards confirm the nature of Lukashenka’s rule — a dictatorship that perpetuates a pervasive climate of fear to squelch dissent.”

“The dictator has undertaken repressive measures on a scale and a brutality which has not been seen in Europe for more than a decade,” Smith added.

Smith called on Belarus to immediately release all of its political prisoners.

Smith and fellow House Republicans Dan Burton (Ind.) Frank Wolf (Va.) and Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.) have introduced a bill to reauthorize the Belarus Democracy Act of 2004, which has been referred to the Committee on Foreign Affairs and also to Committees on the Judiciary and Financial Services for consideration.

Smith and his co-sponsors would like to see the international community apply sanctions on the Government of Belarus, including economic sanctions, provision of weapons or weapons-related technologies or weapons-related training, cooperation of the Government of Belarus with any foreign government or organization for purposes related to the censorship or surveillances of the internet.

Smith has also drafted a letter to the ICC asking for the indictment of Lukashenka based on his 17 years of rule.

Kim Jong Il Dead At 69

UPDATE — Yonhap News, a South Korean media outlet, is reporting that North Korea test fired two short-range missiles Monday. According to a South Korean official cited by the news agency, the test is not believed to be linked to the death of Kim Jong Il.

North Korea announced Sunday that its longtime ruler, Kim Jong Il, died over the weekend.

The 69-year-old dictator reportedly passed away after becoming fatigued during a train ride on Saturday. The news was broken yesterday at noon during an official North Korean state television broadcast.

The following analysis courtesy of global intelligence firm Stratfor:

“Kim’s death comes as North Korea was preparing for a live leadership transition in 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim’s father and North Korea’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung, a transition that had been intended to avoid the three years of internal chaos the younger Kim faced after his father’s death in 1994. Kim Jong Il had delayed choosing a successor from among his sons to avoid allowing any one to build up their own support base independent of their father. His expected successor, son Kim Jong Un, was only designated as the heir apparent in 2010 after widespread rumors in 2009 and thus has had little experience and training to run North Korea and little time to solidify his own support base within the various North Korean leadership elements. Now, it is likely that Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Jang Song Thaek, will rule behind the scenes as Kim Jong Un trains on the job. Like the transition from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il, it is likely that North Korea will focus internally over the next few years as the country’s elite adjust to a new balance of power. In any transition, there are those who will gain and those who are likely to be disenfranchised, and this competition can lead to internal conflicts.”

“The immediate question is the status of the North Korean military. Kim Jong Un is officially the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers Party of Korea and was recently made a four-star general, but he has no military experience. If the military remains committed to keeping the Kim family at the pinnacle of leadership, then things will likely hold, at least in the near term. There were no reports from South Korea that North Korea’s military had entered a state of heightened alert following Kim Jong Il’s death, suggesting that the military is on board with the transition for now. If that holds, the country likely will remain stable, if internally tense.”

“Kim’s death does not necessarily put an end to recently revived discussions with the United States and others over North Korea’s nuclear program. Pyongyang has increasingly felt pressured by its growing dependence on China, and these nuclear talks provide the potential to break away from that dependence in the long term.”

LISTEN: TRNS Discusses The Euro Zone Crisis With EU Ambassador

TRNS White House Correspondent Victoria Jones discusses the financial crisis in Europe with Joao Vale De Almeida, the European Union’s Ambassador to the U.S.

Vale De Almeida makes the case for why Americans should pay attention to the economic activity across the Atlantic, emphasizing that what happens in Europe will ultimately have a major impact on both the US and global economy.

Listen 

Obama And Maliki Prepare For "Equal Partnership"

With U.S. troops set to leave Iraq by month’s end, President Barack Obama pledged to maintain an ongoing, normalized relationship with the country during a joint press conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki Monday.

“This is the shared vision that Prime Minister Maliki and I reaffirmed today: an equal partnership, a broad relationship that advances the security, the prosperity and the aspirations of both our people,” Obama said. “We don’t want to create big foot prints inside of Iraq.”

Similarly, al-Maliki acknowledged the shift in power that will come after the U.S. ends its military presence, explaining via translator that the country will be pursuing a foreign policy in which Iraq “does not intervene in the affairs of others and will not allow others to intervene in its own affairs. 

Obama noted that although nearly all U.S. troops will return home by January 1st, America will continue to maintain a strong presence in the region.

In addition to outlining America’s future with Iraq, the President trumpeted the final phase of the nearly nine year long combat operation.

“This is a season of homecomings,” Obama said. “Military families across America are being reunited for the Holidays. In the coming days, the last American soldiers will cross the border out of Iraq, with honor and with their heads held high.”

Panel Spars Over Diplomatic Influence Of Post-Nuclear Iran

At a panel of leading foreign policy experts hosted by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) on Friday, Ambassador John Limbert, former deputy assistant Secretary of State, declared that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons won’t significantly alter in influence on the global environment.  

“I heard that the comment that an Iranian nuclear weapon would change everything in the region,” Limbert said. “Well, I’m sure it would change some things, but there are certain things it would not change and Iran would remain essentially isolated and diplomatically weak as it is today.”

Other panel members, however, disagreed with Limbert. 

John Hannah, former national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney, said that an Iranian nuclear weapon would greatly increase Iran’s economic and diplomatic global influence.

“With a country as important as Iran - as large as it is, as influential as it is, with as much oil as it has - there could be an awful lot of people flowing back to deal with Iranians,” Hannah said. “That sanctions regime and isolation will, in fact, inevitably erode and eventually disappear.”

Stephen Rademaker, former assistant Secretary of State, echoed Hannah’s sentiments and explained that if Iran had nuclear weapons during their proxy war with Israel in 2006, they would have been more liberal in their tactics against Israel.

“Iran, in that war, had to be restrained,” Rademaker said. “There was a level of escalation beyond which Israel would stop hitting back at Hezbollah, the proxy, and they would hit back at the patron of the proxy.”

“Nuclear weapons change that,” Rademaker continued. “If Tehran has nuclear weapons the ability of Israel to hit back at the patron, the real sponsor of the war, is substantially diminished.”

Limbert, however, claimed that his fellow panelists’ alternate opinion is based on a general misconception of Iran’s power.

After comparing Iran to a backgammon player that improvises frequently, Limbert expressed that, “this lack of contact, this lack of engagement…has led to a distorted image of what they can do and what they are capable of.”