We're Going to Have to Kill A Lot of Taliban, Says Expert

Philip Bunnell - Talk Radio News Service

Dr. David Kilcullen told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday that in order to reach the point of reconciliation with insurgents in Afghanistan “we’re going to have to kill a lot of Taliban to get them to negotiate.”

Kilcullen , non-resident senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said bluntly that “when governments fight insurgents, they win 80% of the time, however, when governments fight insurgents in other countries, they are victorious 20% of the time.” 

Kilcullen said a government that is fighting insurgents at home has a political need to negotiate. Therefore, Kilcullen asserted that the United States will need to “negotiate from a position of strength,” and that the Taliban must believe that “they will have more to gain from talking to us than continuing to fight.”

Ryan Crocker, former ambassador to Iraq, agreed with Kilcullen saying that “reconciliation is only possible when insurgents are unsure if they are winning.”

Crocker also criticized the deadline for troop withdrawal in Afghanistan and the effects of publicizing will have on the attitudes of insurgents. While it is very complicated and nuanced, Crocker said he was concerned as to how the Taliban viewed the deadline, stating that they see it “as a date they need to hold out to, then they’ll be ok.”

Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, briefly touched on the 90,000 leaked documents regarding the war in Afghanistan from the public whistleblower website WikiLeaks.

“It’s important not to overhype or get excessively excited about the meaning of those documents,” said Kerry. “To those of us who have lived through the Pentagon Papers… there is no relationship whatsoever between that event and these documents.”

White House Gaggle by Dana Perino

White House Gaggle
By Ellen Ratner
Briefer: Dana Perino

The President’s Schedule
The president had his usual briefings.
At 11:30 a.m. he will make a statement on Iraq. In the morning he met with Gen. David Petraeus, commander of Multinational Forces Iraq and Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker. The president also met with the special envoy to Sudan.

This afternoon he will go to the ranch in Crawford, Texas. The White House announced that the president will make three commencement addresses this year. The first is May 4 at Greensburg High School in Greensburg Kansas, the second is May 29 at the United States Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and the third will be May 31 Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina.

The White House announced the summer schedule for tee ball on the White House lawn. There will be three games this summer: one in June with Hispanic Americans and others with members of the U.S. military.

The president also had a private meeting in the Oval Office and on the Truman balcony with the Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker, but Perino said that would not discuss the content of the meeting.

On Iraq
Perino said that the cost of reconstruction is increasingly being picked up by Iraqis and that they have more resources available to them. A question arouse as to the timing of a dramatic pull out in Iraq as it relates to the U.S. presidential election. “From our perspective, politics will not enter into it,” Perino said.

She explained that the speech is going to focus on the recommendations from Gen. Petraeus. The president will speak about the planning reduction from 20 brigade combat teams to 15. The president will also announce his support for a 45 days of “consolidation and evaluation” before another draw down of forces is scheduled.

The president will also speak about the tours of duty for soldiers scheduled to deploy after August 1, 2008 will be 12 months in Iraq and a min of 12 months at home in the United States. Perino said “the troops will continue to come home,” but she said “some people" (implying the Congressional Democrats) want to “change the goal posts.”



On Columbia Free Trade
Dana said that they “dismayed and disappointed” and if Democrats have a vote today they will effectively kill the agreement. She said they had been working with Democrats for months and yesterday’s meeting was cordial and frank. The president feels that his hand was forced.

On Torch Relay and Protests
The president said that people around the world have the right to express themselves he will continue to have private talks with China about human rights. Perino said that President Bush has a good relationship with the Chinese, which allows him to do that.

Petraeus and Crocker face Congress for a second day

The House Armed Services and House Foreign Affairs committees hosted Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the Multinational Force Iraq commander and ambassador in Iraq respectively.

The testimony and questions did not differ significantly from their testimony the two men gave in the Senate. In fact, both Petraeus and Crocker read their opening statements verbatim at all four hearings where they were called to testify. There was less protest of the testimony in the House committees than had been in the Senate, only one protester was escorted out of the Armed Service hearing. And there were no visible protesters at the Foreign Relations committee.

In the Armed Services Committee, responding to questions from Mike McIntyre (D-NC), Crocker spoke of an ongoing review process for looking at the 18 agreed-upon legislative benchmarks and agreed to inform the committee of the results of the review when completed next week. So far only three of the benchmark legislation has been approved by the Iraqi parliament and only one of those has been implemented. Crocker also emphasized that Iraq is a sovereign nation and that Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki is able to make his own decisions, as made clear by recent action in Basra, and that if Maliki were to exclude Muqutada al Sadr from the political progress that is his prerogative.



Also in the Armed Services Committee, Rep.Randy Forbes (R-VA) questions the worth of the war to the average housewife who worries about groceries and the high cost of gas. Petraeus responded that "what happens in Iraq has ripple effects that will ripple into the United States." He noted that if there is an interruption to oil flows, there will bean even higher price at the gas tank. He said that the war is worth it because it inhibits al-Qaida's ability to establish a base in Iraq and conducts further attacks on the United States.

In the Foreign Relation Dan Burton(R-IN)asked whether a "precipitous pull out" from Iraq were to happen a vacuum were to be created only al-Qaida could fill it. Crocker answered that given conditions at this time, if the U.S. were to withdraw all soldiers in six months, there would be a downward spiral and al-Qaida would benefit, possibly establishing a base in the Middle East.

In the only heated exchange, Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) asked about the strategic forces agreement and whether it would tie the hands of the next president if that president were to advocate a radical policy change and attempt to withdraw troops immediately. He allowed Crocker one word and that was, "No." Questioning Petraeus Sherman asked whether he would prepare upon the election of a new president to fulfill their policy. Petraeus said that he can only serve one boss and one policy at a time, but that the military would have a plan for a more expedient withdrawal. Petraeus said that he was uncomfortable with the line of questioning, reasserting his belief in civilian control of the military.

Has there been progress in Iraq?

What progress has been made in Iraq? The progress question or some variant of it was asked repeatedly at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on "Iraq After the Surge: What Next?" Chairman Joseph Biden (D-DE) said in his opening statement violence in Iraq has gone down, but not as far as anticipated. These are fragile gains, he said, and the notion of staying in the country is not the goal. The continued loss of life, drains on our treasury, the impact of readiness on our armed services, and the ability to send soldiers to where al-Qaida has grouped, is like "treading water" and we can't keep treading water without exhausting ourselves.

Ryan Crocker, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, relayed that it is hard to see progress in Iraq, and there is much to be done. However, he said, the surge is working. We have begun to develop a long-term relationship with the United States and Iraq, and the heart of the framework is a United States presence in Iraq. Our forces will remain in Iraq past December 31, which is when the current UN agreement expires. The new agreement will not make permanent bases in Iraq or raise up troop levels. Almost everything about Iraq is hard, Crocker said, but hard does not mean hopeless. Our gains are fragile and reversible. In regards to Iraq, Americans and the world will judge us not on what we have done, but what will happen in the future.

We have been transferring power to Iraqis, said Gen. David Petraeus, commander of the Multi-National Force in Iraq. Half of the provinces in Iraq are under their control, and Iraq's security forces expenditures have exceeded ours. While the forces in Iraq itself have improved, Petraeus said, their forces are not ready to defend themselves on their own. They are shouldering a lot of the load, but they are not yet ready for a resurgence of al-Qaida in Iraq, better known as AQI. There is an operational consideration, he said, transference of power requires a lot of time and monitoring. We've asked a great deal of our men and women in uniform, he said, and we are grateful and appreciate their sacrifices. All Americans should take great pride in them.

But what would happen if we removed our troops? Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) asked that question, and Petraeus responded that we have put our teeth into their jugular, and we need to keep it there. In response to an additional question from Senator Biden, Petraeus said we are at a "six or seven" level on a scale from one to ten towards readiness to return to our pre-surge troop level. Biden also asked Ambassador Crocker, "In a choice, the Lord Almighty came down and sat in the middle of the table there and said, 'Mr. Ambassador, you can eliminate every al-Qaida source in Afghanistan and Pakistan or every al-Qaida personnel in Iraq,' which would you pick?" The Ambassador said he would choose al-Qaida in the Afghanistan Pakistan border area.

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) said AQI was not in Iraq before we got there, and that AQI is really the focus here. If we are successful in Iraq, he asked, do we anticipate that AQI will not reconstitute itself? At what point do we say that they will not be particularly effective? In terms of our success in Iraq, it's just as fair to say that we can't get rid of AQI but just create a manageable situation. What is a legitimate affair between Iran and Iraq that would make us comfortable enough to pull out our troops? We all have the greatest interests in seeing a successful resolution in Iraq, he said. I continue to believe that going in was a blunder. I think that the surge has reduced violence and given us breathing room, he said, but not enough breathing room. I think increased pressure in a measured way, includes a withdrawal of troops.

Petraeus to the Senate: Success in Iraq is fragile

General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, U.S. ambassador to Iraq, testified before the Senate Armed Services committee about the situation in Iraq. The room was packed, almost all the committee members were there and there were several protesters dressed as dead Iraqi women holding signs that said things like "There is no military solution General Petraeus!" These protesters did interrupt several times, the loudest of which was a man who chanted "Bring them home!" as he was escorted out.

In his opening statement Petraeus said that there has been significant reduction in violence and that the surge in U.S. troops, Iraqi security forces and an uptick in diplomatic efforts. He addressed the recent flare-up in Basra, saying that it underscored the importance of the cease fire with Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr. He wrote that the threat of al-Qaida in Iraq is "still lethal and substantial" and that "withdrawing too many forces too quickly could jeopardize the progress made over the last year."

Petraeus recommended to the chain of command that withdrawal of surge forces continue through schedule withdrawals in July. Then, Petraeus said, the military should pause to look at all the conditions on the ground, which the general described as "battlefield calculus". After a 45-day period of evidence gathering Petraeus said that they would wait for conditions to be meet the criteria for a draw down before further recommending a withdrawal of troops. This second period of waiting could come immediately after the 45-day assessment or last for months depending on conditions, Petraeus said.

In his assessment of the political situation Ambassador Ryan Crocker testified that while benchmark legislation is slow to be enacted it has been passed by the parliament, which demonstrates progress. He said that the challenges to the rule of law are enormous and that development is not linear. He emphasized that Arab neighbors need to be more helpful and less destructive. He pointed to Iran as an unhelpful neighbor saying that they undermine success in Iraq and the recent fighting in Basra is one example. He said that training, signature weapons, and money still continue to flow from Iran into Iraq.



The two witnesses also emphasized the influence of Iran in training, equipping and funding Shiite militias in Iraq. Both Petraeus and Crocker said that they have seen evidence that "special groups"--Shiite militias not associated with Muqtada al Sadr, and other criminal militias, including those involved in last weeks fighting-- are supported and funded by the Iranian Quds force, loyal to Ayatolla Ali Khamenei. When Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) asked if the Iranian-backed groups responsible for the "murder of hundreds of American soldiers and thousands of Iraqi soldiers," Petreaus said, "I do believe that is correct."


Overall the Republicans praised the efforts of Petraeus and Crocker, the success of the surge at reducing violence and the initiative of the Maliki government in going after criminal elements in Basra. The Democrats generally said that the surge had not achieved the objective of creating political progress in Iraq and talked about how Iraqi oil revenues were not offsetting the cost of the war as promised at the start of the war.

Many topics about the status of the force and the situation on the ground in Iraq were covered in the question and answer sessions.

Sen. Clinton (D-NY), a presidential candidate, took part of her question time to respond to statements and suggestions that calling for a withdrawal of U.S. troops is irresponsible. "It might well be irresponsible to continue the policy that has not produced the results that have been promised time and time again at such tremendous cost to our national security..."

"I think it is time to being the orderly withdrawal of our troops," she said. Her main question for Crocker was about the strategic security agreement that the Bush administration has announced it will form with Iraq by July. Crocker told Clinton that the Iraqi government will submit the agreement to the Iraqi parliament and said that they intend to negotiate the agreement as "an administrative agreement" where the U.S. Congress will not be consulted or asked to ratify.

Clinton's question to Petraeus, surrounded the conditions that would have to exist for the general to recommend to the president a change in strategy. He responded that their has been progress in the political area and that the conditions are clear. He said that they will examine the enemy, the Iraqis, and the security situation. Petraeus expanded an earlier metaphor that this is not linear mathematical situation, but rather a long look at battlefield geometry and political/military calculus.

As ranking member, Republican presidential candidate John McCain made a statement where he defended the success of the surge in reducing violence. He said that because of the surge the U.S. can talk about success in Iraq. "We will insure that the terrible price we have paid has not been paid in vain" McCain said. He emphasized the need to help Iraq fight Iranian-backed special groups.

In an effort to combat an earlier gaffe about a 100-year war, McCain repeated, "I don't want to keep our troops in Iraq on minute longer than is necessary to secure our interests there." McCain speaking of the sacrifices of the American military, closed by saying, "The congress must not choose to loose in Iraq."

Another focus was Petraeus' role in the recent fighting in Basra. Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) asked if the Maliki government had followed his advice in planning and executing the mission to route out criminal Shiite elements in Basra. Petreaus said that not only was he not informed until two days before the attacks, but that the advice he gave once informed was not followed and that the Iraqi security forces entered into combat ill prepared.

When asked by Sen. John Warner(R-VA), if the war in Iraq had been "worth it" to protect America's national security interests Petraeus answered that he would not have taken the job as Multinational Forces commander if he did not feel it was worth it. Crocker responded that al-Qaida is our "mortal and strategic enemy" and that going after al-Qaida in any context makes the United States safer.