Reevaluating Russia

Reevaluating Russia

According to military historian and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute Fredrick Kagan, the threat that Russia poses following the invasion of Georgia has been severely understated.

"This is a major problem. We have not seen an overt act of aggression by a major state, at least in the northern hemisphere, since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, and I fear that this is not the end of it,"

Kagan says that the threat extends to all former Soviet nations are potentially at risk, citing a 27 percent increase in Russia's military budget, a renewed attempt to create an all volunteer army, and three full scale army exercises within the past two months.

"What they are basically trying to do is to create a small American [sic] army that will have the capability to conventionally retake the Soviet Empire."

Russia has also had numerous violations of international law beyond the invasion of South Ossetia, including interrogating prisoners of war and the systematically bombing the entire Georgian military complex. Kagan says that they declaration made by Russian President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin that Russia has the right to intervene militarily in other countries to protect the lives and dignity of Russian citizens abroad is also a dangerous precedent in international law.

"That sets the bar for Russian intervention on the floor. There is no way that the Baltic states or Ukraine can behave in such a way that the Russians will never have the opportunity to say that the dignity of Russian citizens in those territories is not under attack...dignity in this context is a meaningless concept," said Kagan.

Kagan says that a response is possible, and that the idea that the U.S. needs to maintain good relationships in order to have Russian help deter the Iranian nuclear threats is ungrounded.

"The Russians have never been helpful with the Iranian nuclear program, nor will they be helpful with the Iranian nuclear program, except in the sense that they are helping the Iranians to develop a nuclear program. What they will not do is help us to shut that program down."

Ukrainian President Yushchenko declares democratic sovereignty

Amid domestic political turmoil and neighboring geopolitical conflict, speaking through a translator, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko addressed the country's future plans for an independent and democratic Ukraine. Nearly two weeks ago, Ukraine's ruling coalition collapsed, and last year at this time the parliamentary elections put in place an 'orange' coalition featuring an alliance between the Yushchenko's party and the party of Prime Minister Julia Temeshinko. The recent Russian-Georgian conflict has caused international tension between Ukraine and Russia over the fact that Ukraine hosts Russia's Black Sea fleet and the transportation of energy supplies between Russia and Europe.

In the context of the Russian-Georgian conflict and pro-Russian forces active in the Krimean area, Yushchenko said that he is ready to fight and protect his sovereign nation and determine it's own defense and security policy. He strongly confirmed that his territory would never be used for any country to deploy nuclear weapons. Addressing the fears of communist presence in the government, Yushchenko did not understand how Prime Minister Temeshinko made their top partnership with communists because, he said, "there are no Ukrainian communists. These communists always represented interests of a different country."

Yushchenko confirmed his support of NATO, saying it is "the best model to guarantee security in the (Ukraine's) international coordinates". The President continued to declare his plan for a democratic Ukraine and integration into the European Union under the Association Agreement. The Association Agreements would include a free trade area and a start to negotiations of visa free access between the EU and Ukraine.

Georgia and Russia: The next step

Combat may have ceased in Georgia, but in Chris Dodd's (D-Conn.) view only one aspect of the conflict has been resolved.

"There are two ways to undermine, if not topple a democratic government. Either militarily, or by crushing and strangling the economy to make life so miserable, the mandate of the government comes into question," Dodd said today during a Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on the consequences of Russia's August invasion.

"Many expert observers believe that having failed in the first approach Russia now seems to have shifted towards the second."

Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns addressed the committee's concerns over the future of Georgia and Russia, the steps the Bush administration has taken, and the implications of the invasion that are still unfolding.

"We and our European partners have made clear there will be no business as usual with Russia... For our part the administration has withdrawn the 123 agreement on civil nuclear cooperation with Russia and suspended US-Russian bilateral military programs," said Burns.

Questions were raised over the humanitarian response in Georgia. Senator Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) described how President Bush initially said that the Department of Defense would be head the effort which was contradicted when Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said responsibility fell on the State Department.

"It's a combined effort...the Defense Department took the early lead in moving humanitarian supplies to Georgia which was a natural step to take...but over time we have seen the state department taking the lead under Undersecretary Reuben Jeffrey and working with the Georgians to work on a long term plan for reconstruction," replied Burns.

The committee also discussed whether there were any warning signs or actions that could have been taken to avoid hostilities.

"I honestly don't think so. This is a crises and a set of tensions that has been building for some time...there were mistakes and miscalculations on all sides. We worked very hards both with the Russians and the Georgians government to urge restraint," said Burns.

Secretaries of state address the challenges the next president will face

Although the administrations they served held clear differences in their views on foreign policy, five former secretaries of state seemed to arrive at a unified conclusion: the next president will need to take innovative steps in order to restore the reputation of the United States abroad.

Speaking at a George Washington University forum on the challenges of the next president, former secretaries of state Madeline Albright, James Baker, Warren Christopher, Henry Kissinger, and Colin Powell touched upon a myriad of topics, including how the U.S. should engage with increasingly hostile regimes, what steps the next president should take to combat climate change, and what should be done about the current brood of humanitarian crises.

Iraq played an important role in the hour-and-a-half discussion and brought forth a disagreement between Albright and Kissinger. When faced with the question of whether or not the U.S. should adopt a timetable for troop withdrawal, Kissinger remarked that it gave every opponent the opportunity to hold out for a deadline. Albright replied,

"There's a difference from saying that we have to remove our troops by 16 months and saying we need to bring them out at x minute."

The five secretaries also backed future support of NATO, despite recent aggression from Russia.

"The Russian Federation is not going to be the Soviet Union. That movie failed at the box office," said Powell.

Domestic issues were also addressed. Baker, who also served as the Secretary of Treasury from 1985–1988 commented that the recent collapse of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Lehman Brothers was one of the worst economic disasters in the century and agreed with the recent decision to not bail out any more banks.

The election was discussed in the closing segment of the forum. Baker mentioned that he endorsed McCain, Albright said that she was supporting Barack Obama, and Powell continued to withhold his endorsement, saying that he will wait until the debates. When asked by moderator Frank Sesno if he was having a hard time deciding since Powell was the first black Secretary of State and Obama stands to be the first black President, Powell simply announced that he was an American first and foremost and would not let either his friendship with McCain or his similarity in race with Obama influence his decision.

While Kissinger did not mention whether or not he would endorse a candidate he did give his opinion on the superfluous nature of the presidential race.

"I think the 24 hour news cycle and constant demands produce a necessity on the candidate to pretend they have an answer to every question."

Security in a Cyber World

The Internet has evolved into a tool of war.

"The Georgia-Russian conflict, perhaps, that is the first instance of a military action containing a clear cyber component. Denial-of-service attacks were launched by Russia against Georgia," said Deputy Secretary for the Department of Homeland Security Paul A. Schneider during a forum on the nation's cyber security posture.

"There were large swaths of Georgians that could not access any information about what was happening in their country. Government websites were defaced and the delivery of government information was seriously curtailed".

To meet high-tech threats such as these the DHS has rolled out a series of safety measures called the Cyber Initiative, with the goal of strengthening the security of both federal and private sector networks, operating and defending in real time, and expanding counter intelligence capabilities against foreign governments.

"Intelligence is one of our best preventative tools. I don't have to go into any detail, you all know the examples...up through World War II with the use of radar. We need to have similar types of tools in order to make better use of intelligence in the cyber domain in order to stop our adversaries before they can launch attacks against us,' said Schneider.

Another important aspect of the initiative is to create a more centralized manner of dealing with cyber threats. The National Security Cyber Center has been recently created to coordinate protection across the federal networks, including the .mil and .gov domains.

Schneider addressed concerns that the initiative could violate the privacy of citizens.

"If someone is seeking to access our systems and possibly inject some sort of malware it is perfectly within our right to take a closer look and see whether that code poses a threat, just as you would ask a few questions from a stranger who would want to enter your house."