Gates: Afghanistan is “greatest military challenge right now”

While testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates laid out the challenges facing the Defense Department. Gates said that “the greatest military challenge right now is Afghanistan,” but went on to say that there is “no purely military solution in Afghanistan”. Gates said that the highest priorities should be increasing the size and training of the Afghan army. He stated that America’s NATO allies could be doing more to support the war in several ways: providing caveat free military forces, providing a greater number of civilians for other efforts pertaining to operations and building, and sharing the financial burdens associated with Afghan army, estimated to be $3-4 billion in the next several years. Gates said that Afghanistan will be a “long and difficult fight”, and that the goal is for it not to be a base for terrorists.

On the topic of Iraq, Gates highlighted that on January 1st the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the US and Iraq went into effect. SOFA withdraws US combat troops from Iraqi cities by the end of June with all troops out by 2011. Secretary Gates said that the upcoming elections in Iraq show progress. In his prepared testimony, Gates noted that the “sovereignty of Iraq” is one of the “non-military ways to blunt Iran’s power to threaten its neighbors and sow instability throughout the Middle East”. On Iran, Gates reinforced that they are “developing the capabilities needed to support a nuclear weapons program.” He said that “the lower price of oil deprives Iran of revenues and, in turn, makes U.N. economic sanctions bite harder.”

On North Korea, Secretary Gates said that denuclearization is still the goal, but it is uncertain whether North Korea will be willing to entirely give up its nuclear ambitions.

Speaking generally on foreign policy, Secretary Gates said that the United States military “must be able to dissuade, deter, and, if necessary, respond to challenges across the spectrum.” He highlighted the modernization China has recently been engaged in of their armed forces, specifically in cyber warfare, anti-satellite weaponry, anti-air and anti-ship weaponry, and their use of submarines and ballistic missiles. Gates said, “modernization in these areas could threaten America’s primary means of projecting power and helping allies in the Pacific: our bases, air, and sea assets, and the networks that support them.” Gates pointed out that the ground offensive by Russian troops into Georgia was preceded by a “sophisticated cyber attack”, and said that the Russian army is a “force to be reckoned with” in Eastern Europe. Secretary Gates was careful to say that Russia’s current efforts to dominated its “near abroad” should not be confused with the Soviet ideological campaign to dominate the world.

Defense Secretary Gates also met today with the House Armed Services Committee on the similar topics.

By Michael Ruhl, University of New Mexico - Talk Radio News Service

Smart relations with Georgia to prevent conflict with Russia

“I don’t think we’re moving towards another Cold War, but the dangers do exist,” said Salome Zourabichvili, Chairwoman of the Georgia's Way Party (former Minister of Foreign Affairs in Georgia). Zourabichvili says Georgia, Russia and the European Union need to have a frank and firm discussion about border security, energy policy and security, and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) in order to prevent more conflict between Georgia and Russia.

At a discussion at the Woodrow Wilson center, Zourabichvili recommended that the Obama administration recognize Georgia’s desire for Democracy, independent media, and government transparency. She warned the U.S. to aid Gerorgia’s government and institutions conditionally in order to allocate funds to the best place. Zourabichvili said private American institutions who fundraise for Georgia end up unintentionally funding the Georgian military budget (one-third of the national budget in 2007) and “regime consolidation.” With little pressure for government transparency, Zourabichvili said local levels of government practically “don’t exist,” have no budget and are largely governmentally controlled.

Zourabichvili said in exchange for a clear allocation of funds to Georgia, the U.S. will see a Democratizing nation and prevent the opportunity for escalated violent conflict between Georgia and Russia.

Medvedev ruling a continuation of Putin

In contrast to the American Presidential transition of power, Kathryn Stoner-Weiss argued that the transition of power from Russian President Putin to President Medvedev is not bringing any change at all. Weiss, associate director of research and senior research scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University and former Title VIII supported scholar at the Kennan Institute, made this argument at a discussion on "Medvedev's Challenges in Governing Putin's Russia: What a New American President Should Know.”

With the current global economic crisis and Russia’s growing interest in economic development over security, Weiss advises President-Elect Obama to engage with Russian civil society and improve relations with Russia and their European allies.

Weiss said President Medvedev has always been working under Putin, and that Putin is clearly still running the country. Russia is currently proposing to extend the term of president from four years to six years for the next elected president, which Weiss believes opens the door for Putin to come back into office. Weiss argued that the causes of economic growth under Vladimir Putin were independent from the regime change after President Yeltsin, and that the corruption and drawback of freedoms actually worsened under Putin. Transparency International dropped Russia’s ranking by 26 places from last year, tying Russia with Syria and Kenya.

Weiss also believes Putin did not necessarily represent a democracy because he had high approval ratings. She said his high approval was the result of people conflating a leader with an era, and because Putin put restrictions and regulations on the media.

Pharmaceuticals may help Russia enter WTO

According to James N. Class, assistant vice president of international affairs at the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, Russia's acceptance into the World Trade Organization may be aided by pharmaceuticals.

During the Soviet era, Russia had a pharmaceutical industry that provided generic versions of Western drugs. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the status of these factories came into question. "You have 7,00 factories that need something to do," said Class. While many of these factories failed to meet Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP), then President Vladimir Putin made a 2004 statement in favor of meeting a better standard of GMP that put national treatment and WTO ascension on the table.

Research and development (R&D) for medicine has not yet been significantly affected by globalization, leaving the U.S. with 79.5% of the R&D market. However, Russia's status as an emerging market can help draw R&D to the country, since populations without a history of heavy pharmaceutical use are considered better for clinical testing. Once clinical testing is brought to an emerging economy, it is possible to increase funding for academic research centers. An increase of R&D funding will benefit Russia by stimulating their industries, addressing security concerns, and by giving Russia the means to stop buying overpriced generics from other European countries Class explained.

Class concluded that there are several factors that are blocking Russia's ascension to the WTO. The efforts have met with domestic resistance at home and the geopolitical situation with Georgia has stalled WTO Working Party meetings that would make the ascension possible. Still, there is a belief that meetings with the Working Party will resume in November, thus removing one of Russia's obstacles.

Press Conference by East-West Institute on Disarmament at the United Nations


Sergio Duarte, UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs (TBC); Sergey Kislyak, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. and an expert on weapons of mass destruction; Max Kampelman, Former Head of the U.S. Delegation to the Negotiations with the Soviet Union on Nuclear and Space Arms; Ved Malik, Former Chief of Army Staff of India (TBC); and John Mroz, President of the East West Institute, to brief on a new initiative to break the logjam on nuclear non-proliferation
This was discussed as an action agenda and seizing the moment. They said that many people are asking questions about armaments. The concept is to launch an effort to build consensus.

Ambassador Kislyak: It is not a Russian initiative , but they have been invited to comment and participate in the debate. Russia has put forth initiatives. What is missing is a willingness to work on this. Nuclear weapons security is important to be worked on. The START treaty expires next year. Russia has always been supportive a nuclear free Mid-East. On the issue of regional enrichment centers the issue is to make it attractive to countries like Iran but you need to make it a joint venture. The proposal is to have Russians servicing the centrifuges. So far the Iranian government has not accepted this proposal but they have not rejected it. Other former Soviet Bloc countries have been interested in the proposal. The current treaty is for reductions and verification of those reductions. It is being implemented successfully. What the Russians want is to also cover delivery systems and that includes a number of rules that they have established such as accounting rules. Some of our American friends do not see the post START treaty in the same way. There are things that must go first before you start the zero option such as START. The question is how do you move to zero? It has to be practical not just theoretical.

Ved Malik: When it comes to nuclear weapons this must be discussed on a global level not regional.

John Mroz: It is now possible to speak in the US for the first time to get rid of all nuclear weapons. It could not have been spoken about before. This is a mobilization to work with many other NGO’s. Assumption that this is a new time and that also the global economic crises is related to this. There was real verification that the North Korean’s nuclear facility was destroyed. In the Secretary General’s Five points that he proposed today were actionable items. Things are in flux and the question is how you can use this time.

Ambassador Kampleman: This is an effort by both Democrats and Republicans to understand that the world is in serious danger. There is a keen and not a partisan interest in disarmament. Recent public opinion polls show that this issue concerns the American people. The task is to have a coordinated effort. The human race is theoretically in some danger. The Zero option is not making a campaign for fewer weapons we are making a campaign for zero weapons. One weapon can do enormous damage.