Tuesday
Jun302009
Key U.S.-Russia Non-Proliferation Treaty May Expire Without Renewal, Say Foreign Affairs Experts
By Celia Canon- Talk Radio News Service
Charles D. Ferguson and Stephen Sestanovich, Senior Fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations, explained that the 1991 START non-proliferation treaty may not be renewed following the U.S.-Russia Summit this July.
“There can’t be an agreement unless there’s also a formal renunciation by the U.S of the missile defense plan. That’s rather unlikely to happen, and if the Russian stick to that line, the chances of arms control are [slim],” said Sestanovich.
START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was ratified in 1991 by Russia and the U.S in an effort to achieve a dramatic reduction in strategic forces such as warheads and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the post-Cold War era.
According to the U.S. based Arms Control Association, “Russia claimed 4,237 total deployed strategic warheads under the terms of the 1991 START nuclear reductions agreement” while the U.S has 3,696 deployed strategic warheads.
“What has really agitated the Russians... is the American plan to deploy some rather basic elements of the missile defense system in Eastern Europe,” Sestanovich explained, referencing the Bush administration’s decision to install missiles at a base in Poland and to build a radar station in the Czech Republic. Both deals intended to protect Europe from “rogue states” such as Iran.
Ferguson added, “The [Obama] administration has a review of its missile defense policy on the way, and that makes it a little more difficult for them to reach any specific understandings with the Russian about this issue. They can’t offer certain kinds of assurances.”
President Barack Obama has recently agreed to halt military developments in Eastern Europe if Russia agrees to participate actively against Iran.
Ferguson countered Moscow’s accusations that a U.S presence in neighboring states is a serious military threat, saying “What we are looking at is a much smaller, much more modest missile defense system... There’s really no technical reasons for the Russians to be worried at this stage about missile defense as it is currently proposed.”
Charles D. Ferguson and Stephen Sestanovich, Senior Fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations, explained that the 1991 START non-proliferation treaty may not be renewed following the U.S.-Russia Summit this July.
“There can’t be an agreement unless there’s also a formal renunciation by the U.S of the missile defense plan. That’s rather unlikely to happen, and if the Russian stick to that line, the chances of arms control are [slim],” said Sestanovich.
START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was ratified in 1991 by Russia and the U.S in an effort to achieve a dramatic reduction in strategic forces such as warheads and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the post-Cold War era.
According to the U.S. based Arms Control Association, “Russia claimed 4,237 total deployed strategic warheads under the terms of the 1991 START nuclear reductions agreement” while the U.S has 3,696 deployed strategic warheads.
“What has really agitated the Russians... is the American plan to deploy some rather basic elements of the missile defense system in Eastern Europe,” Sestanovich explained, referencing the Bush administration’s decision to install missiles at a base in Poland and to build a radar station in the Czech Republic. Both deals intended to protect Europe from “rogue states” such as Iran.
Ferguson added, “The [Obama] administration has a review of its missile defense policy on the way, and that makes it a little more difficult for them to reach any specific understandings with the Russian about this issue. They can’t offer certain kinds of assurances.”
President Barack Obama has recently agreed to halt military developments in Eastern Europe if Russia agrees to participate actively against Iran.
Ferguson countered Moscow’s accusations that a U.S presence in neighboring states is a serious military threat, saying “What we are looking at is a much smaller, much more modest missile defense system... There’s really no technical reasons for the Russians to be worried at this stage about missile defense as it is currently proposed.”
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Stephen Sestanovich,
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Former Defense Secretary Optimistic That U.S.-Russia Summit Will Produce Renewed Ties
As the U.S-Russia summit from July 6th-8th nears, former Secretary of Defense William Cohen, who spoke at the Center for American Progress Thursday, delivered an optimistic message on the chances of cooperation between the two nations based on goals that both share.
“The distrust is long, it’s deep, but in my opinion it’s not irresponsible... [President Obama] has to decide what the nature of our relationship is going to be with Russia. He has to identify 5 or 6 areas of potential cooperation,” said Cohen.
Russian political experts and Washington think-tanks alike believe the upcoming summit could produce a renewal in Russo-American ties.
Cohen and Dr. Samuel Charap, a Fellow at the Center for American Progress, identified six points of common interest between the U.S. and Russia: Arms control and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, stability and security for the former Soviet region, the fight against violent extremism, the introduction of Russia to Western organizations such as the WTO, energy conservation, and the health and wellness of the two populations.
On the scheduled expiration of START, ratified by Russia and the United States in 1991 to achieve a dramatic reduction in strategic forces, Cohen said “If President Obama and his counterparts are dedicated to doing that [complete the renewal of START by the end of the year], it’s achievable.”
Cohen reiterated the importance of Russia’s role in foreign affairs, indicating that “the non proliferation of weapons of mass destruction: we both have interests in that; curbing Iranian and North Korean nuclear ambitions. Frankly I don’t really think we will be able to solve Iran’s ambitions for nuclear weapons capability without the help of Russia. Russia will have far more leverage than we will. The question is are they going to be wiling to exercise that leverage in their dealings with Iran. They have serious commercial interests in Iran...”
Charap agreed with Cohen that the U.S. should include Russia in international organizations.
“The administration's policies should be guided by the long term goal of integrating Russia into western and other international institutions. integration in these structures, rather than isolation from them is in the U.S national interest because they require greater accountability,” said Charap.
In addition to national security issues, Cohen also discussed economic benefits of renewed ties between the two nations.
“[Russians] need to have Western investment and it has not exactly been a hospitable environment for Western investment. There are serious questions remaining concerning the rule of law... and safe investment,” said Cohen, adding that “The U.S should encourage the development of a democratic Russia that observes the universal values of human rights, political pluralism and the rule of law” in order to encourage foreign direct investment.