Tuesday
Jun302009
Key U.S.-Russia Non-Proliferation Treaty May Expire Without Renewal, Say Foreign Affairs Experts
By Celia Canon- Talk Radio News Service
Charles D. Ferguson and Stephen Sestanovich, Senior Fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations, explained that the 1991 START non-proliferation treaty may not be renewed following the U.S.-Russia Summit this July.
“There can’t be an agreement unless there’s also a formal renunciation by the U.S of the missile defense plan. That’s rather unlikely to happen, and if the Russian stick to that line, the chances of arms control are [slim],” said Sestanovich.
START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was ratified in 1991 by Russia and the U.S in an effort to achieve a dramatic reduction in strategic forces such as warheads and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the post-Cold War era.
According to the U.S. based Arms Control Association, “Russia claimed 4,237 total deployed strategic warheads under the terms of the 1991 START nuclear reductions agreement” while the U.S has 3,696 deployed strategic warheads.
“What has really agitated the Russians... is the American plan to deploy some rather basic elements of the missile defense system in Eastern Europe,” Sestanovich explained, referencing the Bush administration’s decision to install missiles at a base in Poland and to build a radar station in the Czech Republic. Both deals intended to protect Europe from “rogue states” such as Iran.
Ferguson added, “The [Obama] administration has a review of its missile defense policy on the way, and that makes it a little more difficult for them to reach any specific understandings with the Russian about this issue. They can’t offer certain kinds of assurances.”
President Barack Obama has recently agreed to halt military developments in Eastern Europe if Russia agrees to participate actively against Iran.
Ferguson countered Moscow’s accusations that a U.S presence in neighboring states is a serious military threat, saying “What we are looking at is a much smaller, much more modest missile defense system... There’s really no technical reasons for the Russians to be worried at this stage about missile defense as it is currently proposed.”
Charles D. Ferguson and Stephen Sestanovich, Senior Fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations, explained that the 1991 START non-proliferation treaty may not be renewed following the U.S.-Russia Summit this July.
“There can’t be an agreement unless there’s also a formal renunciation by the U.S of the missile defense plan. That’s rather unlikely to happen, and if the Russian stick to that line, the chances of arms control are [slim],” said Sestanovich.
START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was ratified in 1991 by Russia and the U.S in an effort to achieve a dramatic reduction in strategic forces such as warheads and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the post-Cold War era.
According to the U.S. based Arms Control Association, “Russia claimed 4,237 total deployed strategic warheads under the terms of the 1991 START nuclear reductions agreement” while the U.S has 3,696 deployed strategic warheads.
“What has really agitated the Russians... is the American plan to deploy some rather basic elements of the missile defense system in Eastern Europe,” Sestanovich explained, referencing the Bush administration’s decision to install missiles at a base in Poland and to build a radar station in the Czech Republic. Both deals intended to protect Europe from “rogue states” such as Iran.
Ferguson added, “The [Obama] administration has a review of its missile defense policy on the way, and that makes it a little more difficult for them to reach any specific understandings with the Russian about this issue. They can’t offer certain kinds of assurances.”
President Barack Obama has recently agreed to halt military developments in Eastern Europe if Russia agrees to participate actively against Iran.
Ferguson countered Moscow’s accusations that a U.S presence in neighboring states is a serious military threat, saying “What we are looking at is a much smaller, much more modest missile defense system... There’s really no technical reasons for the Russians to be worried at this stage about missile defense as it is currently proposed.”
tagged 
Charles D.Ferguson, Councol on Foreign Affairs, Czech Republic, Eastern EUrope, ICBMs, Moscow, Polan, President Barack Obama, Russia, START, Stephen Sestanovich, Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, Us, arms control association, bush administration, cold war, misile defese pan, non proliferation treaty, nuclear, summit, warheads in News/Commentary
Charles D.Ferguson, Councol on Foreign Affairs, Czech Republic, Eastern EUrope, ICBMs, Moscow, Polan, President Barack Obama, Russia, START, Stephen Sestanovich, Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, Us, arms control association, bush administration, cold war, misile defese pan, non proliferation treaty, nuclear, summit, warheads in News/Commentary
U.S-Russia Summit Low On Substance, Say Analysts
According to experts from the Woodrow Wilson Center, the July 6th-8th U.S-Russia Summit did not produce decisive agreements, but paved the way for the pursuit of further cooperation between the two former Cold War nations.
Blair Ruble, Director of WWC's Kennan Institute, said “Before everybody forgets about this summit, I think its important to say that the meeting accomplished certain modest goals and in the best case has provided a platform for the relationship between the United States and Russia to develop a little bit further.”
William Pomeranz, Deputy Director of WWC's Kennan Institute, added that the two countries had hoped to work on bilateral commissions and moving forward with START, but that “If the goal was initially to reset the tone, there was some success in resetting the tone.”
Experts had anticipated that the renewal of START on non-proliferation, and the U.S.'s plan to install a missile defense shield in Poland would create discord between President Barack Obama and Moscow.
Although the Poland issue was not part of the talks, Ruble said that “The granting of over-flight rights to the Americans who are moving military goods and personnel to Afghanistan is a positive step.”
Despite the fact that the two nations were able to come to any major agreements, Ruble suggested that the context in which the Summit took place may justify the lack of symbolism of the meeting.
“It already up to a certain extent, is a non event, certainly in comparison with other events in the past, and this has something to do with the G8 meting following immediately thereafter. It has to do with the coincidence of the Michael Jackson funeral really pushing the summit aside,” said Ruble.