Swine Flu Still Going Strong

By Learned Foote- Talk Radio News Service

The H1N1 virus, widely known as swine flu, is responsible for 127 deaths and more than 27,000 documented cases of infection in the U.S., explained medical experts Tuesday.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, discussed the implications of the virus’ spread. He clarified the difference between seasonal and pandemic influenza, while noting that the two categories of disease could potentially overlap.

According to Fauci, seasonal flu is “exquisitely predictable,” and the population has immunity to similar strains of the disease. The seasonal flu causes approximately 36,000 deaths per year in the U.S.

The pandemic flu is comparatively unpredictable. Fauci said that this sort of virus is “new enough that the...vast majority of the population has had not only no exposure to the virus, but they haven’t had exposure to anything that’s even related to that virus.” Because the population has no “residual immunity” to this new virus, the disease is more likely to harm young people, who normally are not deeply affected by the seasonal flu.

The World Health Organization declared a flu pandemic for the first time in 41 years on June 11th.

Fauci said that many measures to protect the public’s health have been taken over the past several months, beginning with low-tech measures such as closing schools. The CDC has isolated the virus, and five companies are currently working to create a vaccine to potentially be administered to the population dependent on a more deadly or wide-spread H1N1 strain.

He said that the recent strain of H1N1 is not as dangerous as other related viruses.

“It’s not killing a high percentage of people, and the same thing holds true for transmissibility,” said Fauci.

Fauci also noted that the virus has been “remarkably constant” and not susceptible to mutations that could render a vaccine ineffective. “Can it change to the point of veering away from the vaccine we’re making? Yes. Is it doing it? No.”

Dr. Harvey V. Fineburg, President of the Institute of Medicine, warned that health care officials should not underestimate the potential threat, even though a campaign to immunize millions of Americans overestimated the impact of the virus in the 1970s.

“In 1976, the focus of policy-makers and public health authorities were almost entirely driven by the worst case. Today we have to be careful not to make the complementary error of having all of our attention only on the most likely case,” Fineburg explained.

The mortality rate for documented H1N1 cases in the U.S. is 0.46 percent.

Pandemic Or What?

Coffee Brown MD, University of New Mexico, Talk Radio News

There are three main differences between a normal flu and a pandemic flu, as described by the Department of Homeland Security: incidence, virulence, and demographics.
Incidence refers to how many of us will get it. In a normal year, about 15 percent of 300 million Americans, or about 45 million people will get infected. In a pandemic, rates rise to 25-50 percent, or 75-150 million cases.
Virulence refers to how many of us will die of the infection. In a normal year, that’s about 0.07 percent, or about 35 thousand out those 45 million. In 1918, mortality was about 2.5 percent, which would be about 7.5 million deaths, given today’s population.
Demographics refers to which of us are at most risk. In a normal year, nearly all deaths occur in people over 65 years old. In 1918 and 1957, mortality was highest among school-aged children and young adults.
This summary, with some calculations, comes from information provided by DHS and presented at GlobalSecurity.Org
Let’s compare the 2009 A-H1N1 Flu. “Atypical flu” may be a handier name. “Swine flu” is passe’.
Incidence: As of 05/02/09: There have been 615 confirmed cases in 15 countries. Attack rates so far are too low and data too incomplete to meaningfully calculate.
Virulence: Mortality in Mexico, the country hardest hit so far, is 16 out of 397 cases: about 4 percent, which works out to four thousand per hundred thousand (a common way of expressing this type of number).
The one U.S. death might properly have been considered a Mexican death, since that child contracted the disease there. If calculated as U.S. data: one death out of 141 cases: about point seven percent. If that fatality is not charged to the U.S. account, the mortality rate outside of Mexico is zero percent as of this writing.
Demographics: Reports say that the Mexican victims were young, but I have not been able to locate details to confirm that. The World Health Organization says that more study would be needed to confirm that younger people are more at risk.
Other: The other elements of this flu that merit precautions are that it is genetically unique, meaning we may have no immunity, and that it is slightly out of season, meaning that it exhibits at least some unpredictable behavior.
We are still at phase 5, so clusters of cases in multiple countries, which would define phase 6, have not yet been confirmed.
Per the WHO, there no travel advisories at this time.
Do masks help? Yes, no, and maybe. Yes: as tiny as viruses are, they could slip right through any screen that we could breathe through, but the virus is carried in droplets of exhaled moisture, and those droplets do stick to the mask. No: But the masks dry, and it’s not clear whether the virus survives and detaches into the inhaled air. Maybe: the real test would be whether people with masks get fewer infections (though such people probably also take more precautions in general), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that data is not yet available.

If There's No Pork, Where's The Beef?

Coffee Brown, MD, University of New Mexico, Talk Radio News


A typical flu season kill 37,000 Americans. The swine flu, officially known as "2009 H1N1", may be responsible for up to 160 deaths in Mexico and one infant death in the U.S.

Of those who have contracted the disease outside of Mexico, the illness has been relatively mild. So, what's the big deal?

"This is a whole new kind of flu," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Flu viruses mutate slightly every year, but not like this, Fauci said. Genes from four separate viruses - avian, human, and two kinds of swine flus, have combined into this strain.

Our vaccines and immune systems have "never seen anything like it," Fauci said. That's what makes it potentially more dangerous. While this means that we have little or no natural immunity, it does not necessarily mean that this flu must be any more infectious or virulent than the average flu.

So, why is it called "swine flu"? Actually, Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) really wishes we wouldn't call it that, as it's hurting the pork industry. Fauci agrees, "The name that is now being used is 'the 2009 H1N1 flu.'"

Despite Egypt's decision to eliminate all swine from the country, people can still eat pork without contracting the swine flu. The American Heart Association may advise moderation, but this flu is entirely unrelated to pigs. Still, the pork industry and health officials are going to have to come up with a catchier name than "2009 H1N1 flu" if they want us to stop calling it "swine flu."

Epidemic or Pandemic? An epidemic means that more cases are occurring than predicted. With seasonal flu, epidemiologists have so much experience that they can usually predict the number of cases fairly accurately. The number they are seeing right now wouldn't even be noticeable in the middle of flu season, but this one was winding down for the year. Since this is really a new type of flu, the CDC don't yet have the experience to predict a "normal" season or number of cases.

A pandemic occurs when a disease covers a large geographic area, such as a continent, or multiple continents, as this one has. The common cold is a type of pandemic, though we usually don't bother to call it that. Neither word actually refers to the severity of the disease, the likelihood that a sufferer will end up in the hospital or even die.

So what about the rising number of cases? If that makes you nervous, stop watching them, because the numbers will rise steeply with every re-count for the foreseeable future, whether this is a killer flu or of ordinary severity.

On April 29, 2009, the WHO raised the level of alert to "phase 5. "What does that mean? Phase 4 meant human to human transmission, phase 5 means the same thing, but in more than one country, phase 6 will mean clusters of cases, outbreaks, in more than one country. Phases 7 and 8 describe the trailing off of the disease.

So, is it going to get worse, or go away? It may do either. The behavior of flus is variable, and epidemiologists don't have enough information yet to predict this one's course. Almost any scenario imaginable could occur.

At a Senate hearing Wednesday, convened on short notice in response to this flu, John McCain (R-Ariz) asked, "Should we close the borders?"

"No," Richard E Besser, MD, Acting Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, HHS,responded. That was tried during the SARS outbreak, and it appears to have been unsuccessful. Simulations suggest that closing the borders would have little, if any, effect on limiting spread, and it would tie up massive resources that could be put to much better use elsewhere. If we had been one of the later countries to be hit, we might have tried closing the borders to buy a few more weeks to get ready, but even then the gain would be slight, Besser said. The World Health Organization concurs.

That led Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to ask about resources. Besser told him that stockpiles of antivirals , masks, and respirators are sufficient, because they had been bought when funding was better. Recent cutbacks have cost public health thousands of jobs, lost or threatened, and have made it harder for states to exercise their pandemic control plans.

The Office of the Biomedical Advance Research and Development Authority , which prepares contingency plans and caches supplies, has never had its own funding, but has receives sporadic money from NIH, according to Fauci.

In his 100 day address last night, President Obama re-iterated many of these points, saying "We are continuing to closely monitor the emergency ... (This is) obviously a very serious situation," adding that schools with confirmed or suspected cases should close temporarily.

Obama is requesting $1.5 billion for the further stockpiling of medicines and equipment, and for logistical support. He echoed the CDC and WHO by reminding people, "I've asked every American to take the same steps you would take to prevent any other flu: Keep your hands washed; cover your mouth when you cough; stay home from work if you're sick; and keep your children home from school if they're sick."

Readers: Please send questions, tell us what you need to know.

The Cost Of Swine Flu Unknown

By Kayleigh Harvey - Talk Radio News Service

A hearing on the economic outlook turned to swine flu today and raised the question “are we ready to cover the costs?”

Dr. Christina Romer, Chair of the Council for Economic Advisors, came to the House Joint Economic with upbeat news that, “during the first one hundred days if the Obama administration...the Recovery Act has already saved or created about 150,000 jobs,” said Romer. Adding “that most of the benefits of the Recovery Act are yet to come... our
estimates remain that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act spending will create or save 3.5 million jobs before the end of next year.”

This information was over-shadowed however when Congressman Vic Snyder (D-Ark.) turned the topic to the developing outbreak of swine flu. He asked Dr. Romer, “How should we view the added uncertainty in the economy both here and abroad that may be created the threat of a major health flu pandemic around the world?”

Romer said that swine flu was of “major concern” to the administration. In terms of the economic effects caused by a swine flu pandemic, Romer said effects would depend on “how severe it is,” and that they are working on collating information concerning the swine flu outbreak. At the moment the true cost factor looked “uncertain,” said Romer.

Adding to her point Romer said, “uncertainty is probably the biggest effect at this point. Whether it will make consumers nervous. Whether it will, you know, government will have to take actions, that unfortunately will have economic consequences, that is what we are facing.”

Closing on this topic Romer stressed, that the top priority of the administration was to, “do whatever it takes to ensure that lives are saved.”

The cost of the swine flu pandemic to the American citizen remains unknown until the severity of the outbreak unveiled.

A Swine Flu Primer

Coffee Brown, MD, University of New Mexico, Talk Radio News Service

Is swine flu the pandemic we know is coming? According to federal agencies and a blue-ribbon panel of experts: maybe. The situation is early enough and changing fast enough that we can reasonably hope for the best even as we plan for the worst. This primer is designed to help you do just that. We will continue to post updates. The short answer is that basic hygiene is the most important thing to concentrate on.

The swine flu is a virus, not a bacteria, therefore, antibiotics are not useful against it.
The virus is Influenza A (H1N1), meaning that not all flu is this particular swine flu, and not all respiratory viruses are this virus. This virus has elements of human, avian, and swine flu virus genetics (i.e., not human genes, or bird or pig). There is little or no current human resistance to this strain. Pork is not in any way associated with this virus at this time. raising pigs or eating pork are not thought to carry any risk whatsoever for this infection.

Well then, what can you do? For now, treat this as good practice, not just for the WHO and the CDC, but for each individual: Wash your hands frequently, cover your face when you sneeze or cough, wash your hands after doing so, and demand the same courtesy from those around. Clean doorknobs, faucet handles and similar items that are touched by many other people. Avoid unnecessary travel to Mexico, Avoid work, school, or gatherings if cases have been reported in the immediate area, or if you have any infectious symptoms. Working while ill is not the heroic thing to do.

Should you go to work or school? Yes, with these exceptions: If you have any respiratory symptoms or if swine flu has been identified in your immediate community. These are also the circumstances which would support wearing a mask or avoiding gatherings.

What symptoms should you look for? If your are worried about a contact, symptoms should begin within 7 days. Symptoms should include some combination of the following:
Respiratory symptoms, like sniffles, congestion, cough (typically not productive), or sore throat, are almost always present. Fever, muscle aches, chills, fatigue and malaise are frequent, Occasionally nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. If you believe you may have the flu, your doctor can test for it.

Currently available antivirals are effective against this strain, and a quarter of government stockpiles, totaling about 11 million doses, have been released from government stockpiles to communities for treatment and prevention. Protection lasts about 10 days. Your has physician has specific guidelines for the use of these medicines, They should NOT be used “just to be sure.”

The current flu vaccine is not effective against this strain. A new vaccine is under consideration, but will not be available over the short term. First steps, distributing a “seed virus” to pharmaceutical companies to create pilot batches of vaccine, have begun. The pilot batches need to be tested for safety and effectiveness before full-scale production is requested. By the time that decision can be made, the pattern of this disease will be much more clear. The whole process takes several months before vaccines are available to consumers, which means it will not be available during this season. The vaccine may still be important, though, because history shows that a second or even third wave may present during fall and/or winter.

Sen. Arlan Specter (D-Penn.) attended today’s hearing briefly to emphasize the need to balance fully informing the public with the need to keep the problem in perspective.

What is the government doing about this? Plans have been long since prepared for just this situation, supplies, like antivirals, masks, and respirators have been distributed by the CDC and FEMA. Daily updates are being distributed to healthcare workers all over the country. The CDC advises a regional containment strategy, varying the level of response to the local pattern of illness. Increased screening of arrivals from out of the country, or travel restrictions within the country, would not be expected to reduce the spread.

We are on Stage 4 alert, per the WHO, how bad is that?
It simply means that there definite cases of human-to-human transmission, Stage 4 does not mean that the disease has become more severe.

All the really sick people are in Mexico. It is not known why the most severe cases appear to be confined to Mexico so far, but the CDC expects some severe cases to occur here as well. How worried should you be? Think of this as similar to an orange level terrorist alert. The emergency designations allow government resources and authorities to be positioned before a disaster occurs.There is a real possibility that the outbreak will worsen, but for now, it’s a matter of being ready. Of the 40 American cases as of last night (04/27/09), one has been hospitalized, none has died, the rest have been mild.

As of 04/28/09, 64 cases had been confirmed, and five Americans hospitalized. These numbers will be outdated by the time you read them. What does that signify? This is an expected event: more cases will be discovered each day for a while, and therefore more hospitalizations. The percent who become severely ill may go up, if this turns out to be highly contagious and virulent, or may go down, as screening picks up more of the milder cases that would normally go un-noticed. The ultimate pattern is not clear this early, but all government agencies are taking the possibility of a true pandemic seriously, and individuals should do the same. States and municipalities should review their infectious disaster plans.

Because of increased attention and the need to report new developments rapidly, expect conflicting information and ongoing reappraisal.

Harkin asked the panel whether funding is adequate for their response. they responded collectively that past funding has made it possible to begin work on a vaccine, and also enabled surveillance that Schuchat said lead to the virus beginning analysis in the U.S. before Mexico sent specimens to Canada for identification. Harkin said that he was disappointed that Mexico considered American bureaucracy a stumbling block, and that he would follow up on that. The panel also told him that reduced funding undermined the states’ ability to operate existing epidemic plans, had cost PHS 12,000 employees.

This Information is from The Centers for Disease Control http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ ,the World Health Organization’s http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/ Dr. Richard Besser and the Senate Appropriations Committee Chaired by Sen Tom Harkin (D-Iowa).
Witnesses included: Rear Adm. Anne Schuchat, interim deputy director for Science and Public Health Program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases; and Paul Jarris, executive director of the Assn. of State and Territorial Health Officials.