Thursday
Apr302009
If There's No Pork, Where's The Beef?
Coffee Brown, MD, University of New Mexico, Talk Radio News
A typical flu season kill 37,000 Americans. The swine flu, officially known as "2009 H1N1", may be responsible for up to 160 deaths in Mexico and one infant death in the U.S.
Of those who have contracted the disease outside of Mexico, the illness has been relatively mild. So, what's the big deal?
"This is a whole new kind of flu," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Flu viruses mutate slightly every year, but not like this, Fauci said. Genes from four separate viruses - avian, human, and two kinds of swine flus, have combined into this strain.
Our vaccines and immune systems have "never seen anything like it," Fauci said. That's what makes it potentially more dangerous. While this means that we have little or no natural immunity, it does not necessarily mean that this flu must be any more infectious or virulent than the average flu.
So, why is it called "swine flu"? Actually, Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) really wishes we wouldn't call it that, as it's hurting the pork industry. Fauci agrees, "The name that is now being used is 'the 2009 H1N1 flu.'"
Despite Egypt's decision to eliminate all swine from the country, people can still eat pork without contracting the swine flu. The American Heart Association may advise moderation, but this flu is entirely unrelated to pigs. Still, the pork industry and health officials are going to have to come up with a catchier name than "2009 H1N1 flu" if they want us to stop calling it "swine flu."
Epidemic or Pandemic? An epidemic means that more cases are occurring than predicted. With seasonal flu, epidemiologists have so much experience that they can usually predict the number of cases fairly accurately. The number they are seeing right now wouldn't even be noticeable in the middle of flu season, but this one was winding down for the year. Since this is really a new type of flu, the CDC don't yet have the experience to predict a "normal" season or number of cases.
A pandemic occurs when a disease covers a large geographic area, such as a continent, or multiple continents, as this one has. The common cold is a type of pandemic, though we usually don't bother to call it that. Neither word actually refers to the severity of the disease, the likelihood that a sufferer will end up in the hospital or even die.
So what about the rising number of cases? If that makes you nervous, stop watching them, because the numbers will rise steeply with every re-count for the foreseeable future, whether this is a killer flu or of ordinary severity.
On April 29, 2009, the WHO raised the level of alert to "phase 5. "What does that mean? Phase 4 meant human to human transmission, phase 5 means the same thing, but in more than one country, phase 6 will mean clusters of cases, outbreaks, in more than one country. Phases 7 and 8 describe the trailing off of the disease.
So, is it going to get worse, or go away? It may do either. The behavior of flus is variable, and epidemiologists don't have enough information yet to predict this one's course. Almost any scenario imaginable could occur.
At a Senate hearing Wednesday, convened on short notice in response to this flu, John McCain (R-Ariz) asked, "Should we close the borders?"
"No," Richard E Besser, MD, Acting Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, HHS,responded. That was tried during the SARS outbreak, and it appears to have been unsuccessful. Simulations suggest that closing the borders would have little, if any, effect on limiting spread, and it would tie up massive resources that could be put to much better use elsewhere. If we had been one of the later countries to be hit, we might have tried closing the borders to buy a few more weeks to get ready, but even then the gain would be slight, Besser said. The World Health Organization concurs.
That led Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to ask about resources. Besser told him that stockpiles of antivirals , masks, and respirators are sufficient, because they had been bought when funding was better. Recent cutbacks have cost public health thousands of jobs, lost or threatened, and have made it harder for states to exercise their pandemic control plans.
The Office of the Biomedical Advance Research and Development Authority , which prepares contingency plans and caches supplies, has never had its own funding, but has receives sporadic money from NIH, according to Fauci.
In his 100 day address last night, President Obama re-iterated many of these points, saying "We are continuing to closely monitor the emergency ... (This is) obviously a very serious situation," adding that schools with confirmed or suspected cases should close temporarily.
Obama is requesting $1.5 billion for the further stockpiling of medicines and equipment, and for logistical support. He echoed the CDC and WHO by reminding people, "I've asked every American to take the same steps you would take to prevent any other flu: Keep your hands washed; cover your mouth when you cough; stay home from work if you're sick; and keep your children home from school if they're sick."
Readers: Please send questions, tell us what you need to know.
Great Plains GOP Senators Say No To Cap And Trade
Three GOP senators from Great Plains states criticized the cap-and-trade bill that recently passed in the House of Representatives, and is currently being reviewed in the Senate.
According to Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Ky.), the bill is a "wet dog that is not welcome in the farmhouse or the ranch." Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) firmly said that "this bill is not going to work in the Senate," and claimed that it lacks "even a 5% chance of being successful."
Sen. Johanns, formerly the Secretary of Agriculture under President George W. Bush, said that the legislation would hurt the economy, especially in agricultural communities. "The average farmer will never buy into the idea that maybe, just maybe, if they pay higher production costs and go through this regimen that is going to be established, that they might do better," he said.
The Senators dismissed testimony given by the United States Department of Agriculture to the Agriculture Committee on Wednesday. "The USDA analysis...has holes enough to drive a grain truck through," said Sen. Roberts. He said it was based on assumptions of the EPA [Environmental Protection Agency], which he argued is "driven by their agenda. I don't think it is driven by accurate assessment...as to the effect on farmers and ranchers in rural, small-town America."
Sen. Johanns said he has worked with the economists of the USDA in the past, and that they produce "excellent work." He maintained, however, that this analysis is "tragically incomplete" and it is "remarkable how deficient it is in analysis."
Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) questioned how effectively the legislation could protect the environment, arguing that other carbons will not act to cut carbon emissions, thus stripping the U.S. of competitive advantage in the marketplace. He said that the "costs are real and the savings are theoretical."
The GOP Senators suggested that another piece of legislation could gain bipartisan support. "We ought to be serious abut reducing CO2 emissions," said Thune. He emphasized "incentives for rural renewable energy production," which he said would avoid a "crushing economic burden on American business."