Ahmadinejad is an "existential" threat, but only to Iran

Two experts on Iranian foreign policy discussed their respective theories on
Iran's electoral trends and security policies. Professor Ali Ansari, director of the
Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews, claimed that as
Iran's domestic situation worsens, President Ahmadinejad tends to focus on
international issues, which will only hurt Iran.

But Ansari stressed that Iran cannot be ignored. Iran sits on top of a rich oil
reserve. In terms of regional security, Professor Ansari foresees the reinvention
of the Northern Tier (Iran, Turkey, and India) as a possibility. However, he does
not see a U.S.-Iran conflict any time soon. There may be a few hairline conflicts,
but not a deliberate attack.

According to Suzanna Maloney, senior fellow of the Saban Center for Middle East
Policy at the Brookings Institution, the 2009 parliamentary elections will be the
most important elections in Iranian history. Maloney also spoke positively about
the upcoming presidential election in the U.S., which will provide a new
perspective on Iran foreign policy in the post 9/11 era.

President Ahmadinejad and other leaders are convinced that the U.S. is on a
decline, Ansari said. Maloney said that Akbar Rafsanjani, former president of
Iran, is one of the only leaders opening doors to the U.S. Although Rafsanjani
and Ahmadinejad are extremely hostile in a political sense, they are tactically
cooperative.

Ansari noted that Democratization is slowing down. This is because many of the
government officials in Iran are political figureheads, not strategic
professionals. Before 2004, there was a "rebirth of professionalism" beginning
to develop, but, lately, the trend has been more revolutionary.

Iran's human rights violations continue under Ahmadinejad

The American Enterprise Association held a discussion on Iranian society under the current Ahmadinejad presidency, focusing on its impact on civil liberties and political efficacy.

Tom Parker, executive director of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, said that the human rights situation in Iran “is not good,” and is “typical of many authoritarian regimes” where minorities are routinely discriminated against and denied basic rights. Targeted groups for whose safety the organization is “greatly worried” include Sunnis, Suffis, women, homosexual men, bloggers, and ethnic minorities like Kurds and Arabs. Parker said there are no Sunni mosques in Tehran because of the discrimination, and that many gay men have been executed on charges of male rape. Discriminations can occur through trumped-up charges or implementation of new laws designed to target certain groups, he said. Parker mentioned a public information film released by the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence that displays American politicians--one of whom is Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) working in secret below the White House to undermine the Iranian government, whose vilified plans involved cooperation of “subversive” Iranian human rights groups. Parker highlighted the importance of the Iranian blogosphere in spreading accurate information and “getting a debate going” in Iran’s largely silent or nonobjective media.

Mohebat Ahdiyyih, senior Iran analyst at the Open Source Center, said that it really is “that bad” in Iran, and that President Ahmadinejad has upset the balance of various factions in the new country. He said conditions could change if another president were elected. However, Iran Nameh editor Hermoz Hekmat said that while there are elections in Iran, there are no political parties—thus rendering the elections “non-elections.” Because Iranian society has no political parties, no free press, and no influential non-governmental organizations, he continued, the elected president “has absolutely nothing to do” with the people’s vision for their government.

European Parliament Members lambast Iranian government

The National Press Club hosted 3 speakers for a discussion today on Iran. Featured speakers included two members of the European Parliament—Portuguese member Paulo Casaca, and Scottish member Straun Stevenson, as well as strategic policy counselor and author Alireza Jafarzadeh.

Casaca kicked off the discussion by warning leaders not to take the rhetoric of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with a grain of salt. He said that the United States and Europe have largely been ignoring statements made by Ahmadinejad and compared them to threats made by Osama Bin Laden in 1998 when, he said, no one was paying attention. Casaca touched on Ahmadinejad's recent trip to Iraq where he met with the leaders there and noted that violence came to a standstill for the 48 hours of his visit insinuating that Iran is largely responsible for the conflict there. He also issued his support for the most recent United Nations' sanctions against Iran.

Stevenson began by referring to government of Iran as “Islamofascist.” He called the Iranian government “the most evil regime on the face of this Earth” and said that Iran was responsible for the extensive security measures taken in airports and other places following the 9/11 attacks. He said that Iran is now acquiring missile launchers capable of sending rockets to cities in Europe and said that appeasement measures with Iran have “gone crazy.” He expressed support for anti-Ahmadinejad dissidents and called for the West to collaborate with “pro-democracy” groups such as the People's Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI). Stevenson said that a military attack on Iran would be “catastrophic” and said that instead, the West should work to support political dissidents and students in Iran demonstrating against what he called “fascist Mullahs.” He also supported sanctions against Iran but said that their needs to be more done.

Jafarzadeh, who recently published a book on Iran and “the coming nuclear crisis,” spoke very critically of the Iranian government. He expressed heavy doubt in their denials of pursuing nuclear arms. According to Jafarzadeh, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has yet to inspect Iranian facilities and other locations where he said were openly known to be used for atomic research. Like the other two speakers, Jafarzadeh said that he supports sanctions against Iran but wanted to see the sanctions coupled with political pressure.

White House Gaggle

Briefer: Dana Perino

President had his normal briefings this morning. At 10:25 am, he will receive the Annual Report to the Nation by the Boy Scouts of America. At 10:50 am, President Bush meets with the King of Jordan. At noon, President and Mrs. Bush will host a private social lunch with the King and Queen of Jordan in the Family Dining Room of the White House. At 1.15 pm, the President makes remarks to Political Appointees and Federal Government Employees in DAR- Constitution Hall in Washington, DC.
White House Press Secretary Dana Perino will brief the press at noon today.


Middle East

Perino said that, “there is a lot of tension between the Israelis and the Palestinians, “and Secretary Rice is in region to bridge the gaps and bring them back together. One of the things Secretary Rice said, and the President agrees with is that, “Hamas has made themselves an enemy of the Palestinian state.” Perino said that the Palestinians could have a Palestinian state given the leader they have now--Hamas is what is holding them back. Secretary Rice will also be meeting with Prime Minister Olmert as they are also concerned about the situation.

When asked if it is really possible to negotiate peace with a divided Palestine, Perino said that they believe Hamas is a terrorist organization and Israel has the same feeling. She continued to say that, “President Abbas has said that he wants to be the Palestinian President for everybody, including the people living in Gaza, who are living under terrible conditions right now… The strategy is to try to allow the Palestinians to see that is a choice to make. There is a path that can get you to a Palestinian state and possible more security and prosperity… The purpose of Secretary Rice’s trip is to try to establish again this clear strategy and division between the choices there is to make for the Palestinians. “ A reporter questioned Perino when it comes to the Palestinians in Gaza, saying that she assumes that they actually have a choice or wish to make a choice, which that does not seem to be the case. Perino said that she thinks they do have a choice. She also said that the government that US is working with, lead by President Abbas, is the one that has chosen peace. Perino said the “issue is that it is extremely complicated, and we never said that this was going to be easy.” But we do believe that people have a choice, Perino continued, “and the President believes that when people have a choice they will chose freedom.”


OPEC

When asked about a response to OPEC’s decision to not increase production to ease prices, Perino said that she hasn’t heard anything about yet. She will wait until they make an official announcement. Perino did say that she oil producing countries should work to keep the markets well supplied.


Iran

Perino was asked about a comment on Iran who has rejected the sanctions resolution that was imposed by the United Nations. Perino said that they were not expecting anything else from the regime of Iran. We have provided several incentives for the Iranians if they would halt the enrichment of uranium and come to the negotiation table. Perino also said that she was pleased to see that the UN went forward with the 3rd rounds of sanctions. “A lot of people did not think that it was not going to be possible after our National Intelligence Estimate came out in December…”


Ahmadinejad in Iraq

When asked if the President talked to the Iraqi Prime Minister Malaki after the visit of the Iranian President Ahmadinejad, Perino said that they haven’t talked since. Though there have been reports by Ambassador Crocker and General Petreus.


Boy Scouts

When asked if the President has any concerns about discriminatory practices by the Boy Scouts against gays and atheists, Perino said that she had not asked about it, but “the President has always said that everybody should be treated with dignity and respect. “

Current and former commdanders give outlook of slow progress in Iraq

Iraq was the topic of the day at the Pentagon, where current and former commanders took time to update the press on operations in Iraq and the outlook for troop levels and military strategy in the future.

Gen. James Dubik, commander of Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq, explained about the transfer of power from Coalition to Iraqi security forces. He explained the substantial growth in the forces that has occurred between June and December of 2007. While limited number of Iraqi security units, army and national police, are conducting and, in some cases, leading operations, the coalition, and primarily the United States remains responsible for weapons and logistical support, or what Dubik called enabling forces. He said that the challenge of handing over the capabilities and of speeding up the vetting process for growing the ranks remains.

Another important appearance was made by former second-in-command in Iraq Gen. Ray Odierno. Odierno has been moved out of Iraq and replaced by Gen. Lloyd Austin as Multinational Corps commander. Odierno was able to draw some conclusions for the press corps about the progress in Iraq over his 15 months as a commander. He said that there have been large security gains on account of the surge, though he said that these gains have not reached a point where they are totally irreversible. However he did say that he was comfortable with planned troop reductions and that that point where gains were irreversible did not have to be reached before the troop dawn downs could continue as scheduled. Within the next week the number of brigade combat teams will be reduced to 18 and then down to 15 by July of 2008.

Odierno did take a rare step into politics saying that any presidential candidate should consider the strategy of assessment of all conditions before acting on draw down. Odierno said it was too early to talk about what specific withdrawal plans from the candidates would look like because as he said, "a lot can change in Iraq in 10 months."



Odierno has insight on the subject of Iran, specifically president Ahmadinejad's recent visit to Baghdad. When U.S. visitors have come to Baghdad in the past there is often some kind of security situation, specifically rocket attacks by what Odierno called "Iraninan surrogates." The reason why Ahmadinejad was able to walk around more freely, said Odierno, was because those militant groups were not attacking. He said he hopes that Iraqis will continue to see Iranian meddling and recognized that it is their training and directions to surrogate militant groups that are causing problems for Iraqis.

He said that overall the surge was a success, not only because of the increase in numbers but the change in tactics. He credited the decrease in abilities of al-Qaida in Iraq to the fact that coalition forces were in the neighborhoods and that the Sons of Iraq program had made supporters of coalitions forces more recognizable.