Bureau Chief Ellen Ratner Gives Her Predictions For 2010

We are beginning the second decade of the millennium. We'll see congressional elections, the winter Olympics and a few Republican candidates beginning the Iowa and New Hampshire slog toward the nomination for president. Some of the year is highly predictable, while the wild card of the weeks and days will bring entertainment, sadness and joy as we move through the next 365 days. So, without the benefit of a crystal ball or being able to discern the stars, here is what I predict.

1. Health care passes the House and Senate within a week of the State of the Union address. The plan might be to get it done before the State of the Union, but it will be passed within a week in either direction of the congressional speech. The president's address will be used as the rallying cry.

2. The November midterm elections will have the Democrats losing a maximum of 23 seats in the House, but not more. They will lose three seats in the Senate. This loss will prompt the Republicans to once again see this as a mandate and move to the conservative wing of the party. Unless Newt Gingrich rises to the top as the potential nominee, the party will begin to support right-wing candidates who do nothing except increase President Obama's chance for re-election.

3. We discover more water on other planets and even see the precursors for life on some of these. The possible discovery of water on the moon and Mars has increased the chances of sustainable life in many far away lands. "That we are not alone" is becoming more and more of a reality. Not exactly the bar scene from "Star Wars," but on a microbe level we are not the only actors.

4. We impose sanctions on Iran. I do not need to be a soothsayer to predict this, but all indications lead to imposing sanctions. The trouble is that without the help of some of the Arab countries that trade with Iran such as UAE, there is not much help that sanctions could work.



5. After the sanctions are imposed, there will be a significant, internal change in Iran, which will make the Obama idea of possible communication a reality – although the neo-cons will be furious.

6. Consuming less and giving more becomes the consequence of the poor economy. As Americans have less and reassess their values, blatant consumerism will reduce. Charitable giving will increase among middle-class donors.

7. Americans will become more aware of the drug trade from Mexico. It has been something that has been lost in the immigration debate. Mexico as a "failed state" will become more of a headline.

8. Afghanistan will calm down, and it will look like Gen. Stanley McChrystal's plan is working. The Taliban will be waiting for its moment and will wait us out. We will declare victory and with the exception of few headlines down the line when the Taliban and the warlords take back their territory. By that time America is on to new concerns and does not even register a blip.

9. Meg Whitman wins the race for governor of California. Former Gov. Brown and San Francisco Mayor Newsom don't make the final cut with the people of California.

10. Prevention in health becomes the buzzword. The insurance lobby, freaking out that it can't drop subscribers, turns to the only thing it knows works: getting Americans healthier. It works with governors and states to help fund tobacco prevention and healthy diet programs.

11. Unusual state taxes get voted on. California will tax medical marijuana, and other states find ways to tax Internet purchases and develop sin taxes.

So there you have it readers. I invite you to send me yours, and we will look at my track record in a year! Have a wonderful New Year and may God bless you and your family.

Democrats Entering 2010 Races Strong, Says Sen. Menendez

Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, stated Tuesday that he believes any predictions about future elections are still premature, but expressed optimism over his party's ability to maintain control of the Senate.

"We are still fourteen months away from an election...and that's an eternity," Menendez said in a pen and pad session with reporters.

However, Menendez believes that Democrats are still better positioned for the long-term, noting that Republicans have done nothing to put the U.S. in better economic shape. According to him, health care reform is a strong asset for Democrats because Republicans' strategy is for the elimination of the public option.

"Republican strategy is short-sided...they have forfeited the two biggest issues: the economy and health care," Menendez said.

Reid: Democrat’s Support of Specter is Not Conditional

By Michael Ruhl, University of New Mexico – Talk Radio News Service

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.)
Photo by Michael Ruhl

According to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), the Democratic Leadership will stick by Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter through thick and thin. The remarks came at a power breakfast on Capitol Hill, where Reid addressed, among other things, Specter’s recent defection to the Democratic Party.

President Obama, Vice President Biden and Reid have all pledged to support Specter when he comes up for reelection in 2010. When asked today whether or not that support was dependent on Specter voting a certain way, Reid said that it wasn’t.

“I’m not going to be in a forever, never position, but the facts are that he’s going to vote with us most of the time,” Reid Said. “I can’t foresee him doing anything that would be so mean spirited that Obama, Biden, and Reid would turn against him.”

If Al Franken wins the Senate Seat in Minnesota, which is still being contested in court, Specter would be the 60th Democrat in Congress, the number needed to stop a Republican filibuster.

“I don’t think [Specter is] going to be an automatic vote, but I don’t have any automatic votes,” Reid said. He was referring to fears from the right that Specter will be the key vote in stifling Republican policy.

Critics believe that Specter is going to help the Democrats steamroll through radical legislation.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has called the filibuster-proof Senate a “threat to the country.” He it would allow the Democrats to “have whatever it wants, without restraint, without a check or a balance.”


Specter's defection became a reality when he was assured by Reid that his seniority in the Senate would not be compromised. Reid has publicly stated that no members of Congress will be “bumped” from a committee position to make room for Specter.

The deal struck regarding Specter’s seniority was that upon defecting, he would be treated as though he had been elected a Democrat in 1980.

Not this Congress, at least.

Reid left open the door to moving Specter up in the ranks next Congress, and said, “We’ll work something out,” adding that in every new session of Congress, committee positions are worked out at the beginning of the term and restructured as necessary, and that the next Congress will not be an exception.

Specter’s Spectacle

By Michael Ruhl, University of New Mexico – Talk Radio News Service

Senator Arlen Specter
Photo by Michael Ruhl

Senator Arlen Specter (Penn.) says that he left the Republican Party because they had stuck their nose into party affairs to the point of breeding extremism. Ironically the Democrats are doing the exact same thing to their newest member. Micromanaging from the highest level doesn’t seem to be exclusive to the Republicans.

Yesterday Specter walked away from the party he has been with for nearly four decades, because he felt they were ignoring moderate voice. Specter announced his decision to defect to the Democratic Party, only the twenty-first time that a Senator has done such a thing since 1890.

President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) have both said they will fully support Specter in his 2010 election, but Congressman Joe Sestak (D-Penn.) was not sure that the party establishment should be backing Specter in this way.

“If decisions and candidates are being chosen in Washington, you may just reemphasize that divisive barrier that’s between the parties,” Sestak said. “I think we cannot afford to have a decision that is so important to Pennsylvanians be decided by the party establishment,” and that the voters should be the ones to choose their candidate.

Sestak is rumored to be considering running for the Pennsylvania Senate seat, and would come up against Specter in the Democratic primary. When asked directly, Sestak said he had not decided yet whether or not he would run. Another contender, Representative Allyson Schwartz (D-Penn.) said today that she would not run for the seat.

The republican response has ranged from anger to confusion. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steel likened Specter to Benedict Arnold.

“Clearly, this was an act based on political expediency by a craven politician desperate to keep his Washington power base - not the act of a statesman,” Steel said. “Arlen Specter handed Barack Obama and his band of radical leftists nearly absolute power in the United States Senate.”

Specter responded, “I have not represented the Republican Party, I have represented the people of Pennsylvania.” He was referencing the fact that in the past months there has been an exodus from the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, where over 100,000 individuals changed their party registration from Republican to Democrat.

Specter is defending his position as being one of riding with the tides of his constituency, instead of bowing to the will of a national political party. Critics see it as a survival move of a desperate politician.

Speaking today with President Barack Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden, Specter said that staying in the Senate would allow him to carry forward important initiatives for his constituents, speaking specifically about expanding medical research.

Specter would prove to be the 60 Democrat in the Senate, provided that comedian Al Franken prevails in his court case for the Minnesota Senate. Sixty votes, called a supermajority, is enough to override a Republican filibuster. Specter said previously, though, that he was not going to simply back the Democrats automatically, and President Obama acknowledged that, saying, “I don’t expect Arlen to be a rubber stamp.” According to Obama, he and Specter agree in the areas of health care, education, medical research

IMF Chairman: 2010 Could Be End of Recession

Jonathan Bronstein, Talk Radio News Service

Since the economic crisis began in 2008, many people have been clinging to the hope of hearing positive news regarding to the economy. Recently, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the current chairman of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), delivered some optimistic news, as he believes that 2010 could be end of recession.

“The free-fall in the global economy is beginning to abate,” said Strauss-Kahn in an optimistic tone.

But Strauss-Kahn believes that the governments must take three steps in order to bring this current recession to a close. 

Firstly, financial sector reform, as “it is essential there is no way in the global economy without this,” said Strauss-Kahn. Governments must work to cleanse the banks balance sheets and attempt to re-capitalize the banks in order to prevent “zombie banks,” banks that keep “toxic” assets on their bank sheets, from taking hold and keeping nations in a prolonged recession.

Secondly, the need for a global and coordinated fiscal stimulus, and the IMF asked for a 2 percent global stimulus, and “I must say that globally the government delivered at the global level,” said Strauss-Kahn, who continued to say, “and for 2009 we [the world] has what it needs.” Not only was Strauss-Kahn pleased that the world heeded the warnings of the IMF, but also implemented them at a similar time, which marked a more unified response.

Thirdly, Strauss-Kahn wanted urgent action taken by the national governments on the financial front in order to keep the banks solvent, and to alleviate any pressure in emerging markets. “This is the area where the G-20 was boldest in tripling the resources of the IMF, its lending capacity, to an unprecedented $750 billion,” said Strauss-Kahn.

However, Strauss-Kahn had sobering news regarding the present, as he believes that no matter how much stimulus is placed into the economy this year, 2009 will be seen by future generations as a lost year of economic growth.

“2009 will almost certainly be an awful year; we expect global growth to enter deeply negative territory,” said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the current chairman of the International Monetary Fund.

While 2009 may be a bleak year; one must not overlook the positive indicators in the economy, like the NASDAQ recently reaching its 5-month high, which illustrate the resilience and strength of the economy. 

Strauss-Kahn continued to outline the 4 desires of the IMF in order to prevent another economic crisis, they are: better regulation of financial markets, civilian watchdogs on the “corner between main street and Wall Street,” international cooperation and financial arrangements between nations in economic troubles and the IMF so the stipulations that accompany the loan are not too stringent.

“In future time people do believe the United States economy will get better and is most secure,” said Strauss-Kahn, and for this reason the dollar will continue to be seen as the last bastion of security, even during the most tumultuous times. 

In fact, the dollar has continued to appreciate against competing currencies, like the Euro and Yen, even during this crisis, which according to Strauss-Kahn illustrates how at the end of this recession, “the dollar will still be supreme.”

Strauss-Kahn concluded by harkening back to his prediction that the crisis would ease in 2010, when he said “it is time to move forward and if we do move forward in the correct way than the recovery of the global economy in the first-half of 2010 will be a correct forecast.”