Allies Must Support Libya As Transition Unfolds, Says MidEast Expert

As Libyan rebels seem to have taken control of Tripoli, it appears imminently clear that Moammar Gadhafi’s 42-year brutal regime is coming to an end.

Scattered battles have erupted across Libya and three of Gadhafi’s sons have already been captured. As the search continues for Gadhafi and four of his other sons, Libyan citizens have taken to the streets in celebration of the end of an era.

However, rather than celebrate prematurely, Daniel Serwer, scholar at the Middle East Institute and author of the Council on Foreign relations memorandum “Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya”, says the international community and Libya itself must focus on rebuilding Libya after Gadhafi is officially taken down.

“There is a possibility here for a democratic Libya to emerge from this but there is also a real possibility that a very chaotic and non-democratic Libya will emerge,” Serwer told TRNS on Monday.

“The international community’s job,” he added, “is to try to make sure it comes out in the less chaotic, more democratic direction.”

According to Serwer, the European Union (EU), which imports a large quantity of gas and oil from Libya, should play a critical role in stabilizing the North African nation. The US, however, should only play a major role if a new UN security council resolution is required.

But the international community as a whole cannot take control of the situation from Libya, according to Serwer. Rather than lead the governmental transition, they must leave it in the hands of the Libyans and support them along the way.

And fortunately, Libyan rebels have proven themselves capable of such transition.

The Libyan community has organized a Transitional National Council (TNC), which details how the nation will proceed after rebel forces seize control of the government from Gadhafi.

Additionally, the TNC has published a constitutional charter, which, according to Serwer, is “relatively liberal and democratic.”

Yet while Libyan rebels seem to be on the right path towards a democratic government, Serwer warns that there is still the very real risk that Islamist radicals will try to take advantage of the situation and establish a non-democratic government. Additionally, there are many sources of violence that the TNC must be alert to, such as fighting among rebels themselves, backlash from Gadhafi loyalists and criminals who will take advantage of the chaotic situation.

This is where international support will be critical.

UN, Aid Agencies Shut Out Of Western Libya

International relief organizations have little or no information on the conditions and humanitarian needs in large portions of Libya, and such information is proving extremely hard to come by, says UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affair Valerie Amos.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon yesterday, called on Libyan authorities to offer humanitarian organizations unimpeded access to the country, but so far virtually no organization has been able to travel to the Western regions. 

A United Nations assessment team reached the Eastern opposition stronghold of Benghazi yesterday, where it reported that security situation was calm and that most humanitarian needs in the areas surrounding the city had, for the moment at least, been met.

However the humanitarian situation in Tripoli is for the most part unknown. The United Nations presence in the capital, which was already limited before protests broke out two weeks ago, is now reduced to a few Libyan national staff members who are unable to carry out their work due to safety concerns. 

Ms Amos, UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs who is scheduled visit the Tunisian border this weekend,  says that she has received reports that government security forces were preventing Libyans in Tripoli and other Western areas from fleeing.

The security situation along the Western border also remains uncertain . Although tens of thousands have crossed into Tunisia in the past two weeks, Amos says there are unconfirmed reports of a build up of heavily armed Libyan forces along certain border areas, preventing people from leaving.

“Our concern now is that the number leaving Libya dropped sharply yesterday” Amos told reporters.

Amos was able to confirm that as of yesterday, 172 00 people had already fled Libya, the large majority of them foreign laborers. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that there are approximately 1.5 million migrant workers in Libya, nearly a million of whom are Egyptian nationals, along with tens of thousands from Tunisia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, China, Philippines and several countries from Sub-Saharan Africa. These migrant populations are often more likely to be victims of violence. Sub-Saharan Africans from Libya and neighboring countries are often accused of being  mercenaries hired by the regime to crush the protests and have been subject to violent retribution. Egyptian and Tunisian migrants have also reportedly faced attacks and threats from Gaddafi loyalists, who blame them for inciting the popular uprising.

Although a transit camp offering shelter, food and water has been set up on the Tunisian side of the border to accommodate the tens of thousands who have fled, foreign nationals from these countries often find themselves trapped in the region for extended periods of time.  Amos said IOM and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees were working with partners to secure return flights and travel for those who have not yet been evacuated.