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Entries in Timothy Killen (1)

Thursday
Mar122009

“Our World Would Be Unrecognizable”

Coffee Brown, University of New Mexico, Talk Radio News

Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.), Chair of the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, opened the first of a planned series of hearings into practical responses to climate change with, “Dr. Killen, when does climate change become irreversible?”

Dr. Timothy Killen, National Science Foundation, replied that accommodation was becoming more important than prevention. Killen said that present models are imperfect, they show a range of possibilities for each question, but the possibilities are all about how much our world is changing, not whether it is. The overall pattern of warming and increasingly erratic and extreme weather is certain, with floods and droughts occurring back to back in the same places. One other thing the models have in common, is that the changes are already more severe and rapid than predicted, he said.

This is partly because methane gas wasn’t part of earlier models, Killen said. He confirmed that methane is 30-40 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Methane is sequestered in huge amounts in permafrost. So far, only superficial permafrost is melting and releasing the gas but, if it all melted, “Our world would be unrecognizable,” he said.

Rockefeller said this is the 11th plague on man. “The science is overwhelming… The time for arguing whether carbon emission is a factor which affects the health of the earth, or whether our sea level is rising from global warming, is and must be over.”

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), Ranking Member, asked about research into weather control. Killen indicated that we could begin such studies, with better tools than in the past.

No one among the senators or the panel questioned the reality or significance of climate change, the discussion was about what could be done.

Killen recommended specific areas of further research in order to improve computer modeling of the effects of any changes. He thought science would then yield better answers in “ten or so years.” In the meantime, we should plan for regional climate change, the local details of which were not yet predictable, rising and more acidic oceans, water scarcity, extreme weather, reduced biodiversity, crumbling ecosystems, and substantial impacts on human health.

Sean Dilweg, National Association of Insurance Commissions, recommended both insurers and government create incentives for people to drive less and use clean energy. Insurers are presently looking into other recommendations.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) suggested “something like EnergyStar on steroids.” A symbol that consumers could look for as a sign that their purchases were part of the solution.,

The Colorado River might carry 20 percent less water by 2050, Katherine Jacobs, Arizona Water Institute, said. There is a great need, she said, for the public and policy makers to be more aware of the science around climate, and to make that science part of important decisions.

Her recommendations also included plans to adapt to now-unavoidable changes, as well as defining the problems around users’ concerns, matching the timing and scale of information to decisions, and establishing credibility of sources in the minds of the public. She submitted several more technical recommendations to the committee as well.

By far the most pro-active panelist was Frank Alix, Powerspan Corporation. His company makes carbon scrubbing and sequestering equipment for coal plants. Still at the prototype stage, their equipment can remove 90 percent of the carbon from coal plant exhaust, pressurize it into liquefied form, and pump it into vast natural underground spaces, where it is expected to remain. Alix estimated that, with full implementation, total carbon emission could be reduced to about 5 percent of what it is now, for about $40 a ton.

Alix said the fastest path to adoption of the scrubbers would be a carbon tax.