Senate Not Likely To Ratify Nonproliferation Treaty, Says Expert

By Meagan Wiseley - University of New Mexico/Talk Radio News Service

Deepti Choubey, Deputy Director of the Nonproliferation Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Monday that the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is not likely to be presented to the U.S. Senate for ratification before the Non Proliferation Treaty Conference which takes place in Austria next May.

“Certainly CTBT, I don’t see being ratified unless there is a massive reorientation in the administration’s political strategy about how to get it done...I think that’s one issue we can put to the side for this upcoming review conference,” Choubey said.

Adopted by the United Nations (UN) in 1996, the CTBT bans all nuclear explosions on Earth, regardless of whether or not they are conducted for civilian or military purposes. Several UN members, including the U.S. signed the treaty, but as of this year, the U.S. Senate has yet to ratify it.

Choubey said she has high hopes for the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Follow-On (START), calling it a “modest arms control measure.” In July of this year, both U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian Federation President Dmitry Medvedev signed the treaty, which aims to reduce and limit global strategic offensive arms to the range of 500-1100 by 2016.

However, Choubey warned that if the Senate does not ratify the CTBT by 2015 there will be a “negative impact” on the other members of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.

U.S-Russia Summit Low On Substance, Say Analysts

By Celia Canon- Talk Radio News Service

According to experts from the Woodrow Wilson Center, the July 6th-8th U.S-Russia Summit did not produce decisive agreements, but paved the way for the pursuit of further cooperation between the two former Cold War nations.

Blair Ruble, Director of WWC's Kennan Institute, said “Before everybody forgets about this summit, I think its important to say that the meeting accomplished certain modest goals and in the best case has provided a platform for the relationship between the United States and Russia to develop a little bit further.”

William Pomeranz, Deputy Director of WWC's Kennan Institute, added that the two countries had hoped to work on bilateral commissions and moving forward with START, but that “If the goal was initially to reset the tone, there was some success in resetting the tone.”

Experts had anticipated that the renewal of START on non-proliferation, and the U.S.'s plan to install a missile defense shield in Poland would create discord between President Barack Obama and Moscow.

Although the Poland issue was not part of the talks, Ruble said that “The granting of over-flight rights to the Americans who are moving military goods and personnel to Afghanistan is a positive step.”

Despite the fact that the two nations were able to come to any major agreements, Ruble suggested that the context in which the Summit took place may justify the lack of symbolism of the meeting.

“It already up to a certain extent, is a non event, certainly in comparison with other events in the past, and this has something to do with the G8 meting following immediately thereafter. It has to do with the coincidence of the Michael Jackson funeral really pushing the summit aside,” said Ruble.

Former Defense Secretary Optimistic That U.S.-Russia Summit Will Produce Renewed Ties

By Celia Canon- Talk Radio News Service

As the U.S-Russia summit from July 6th-8th nears, former Secretary of Defense William Cohen, who spoke at the Center for American Progress Thursday, delivered an optimistic message on the chances of cooperation between the two nations based on goals that both share.

“The distrust is long, it’s deep, but in my opinion it’s not irresponsible... [President Obama] has to decide what the nature of our relationship is going to be with Russia. He has to identify 5 or 6 areas of potential cooperation,” said Cohen.

Russian political experts and Washington think-tanks alike believe the upcoming summit could produce a renewal in Russo-American ties.

Cohen and Dr. Samuel Charap, a Fellow at the Center for American Progress, identified six points of common interest between the U.S. and Russia: Arms control and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, stability and security for the former Soviet region, the fight against violent extremism, the introduction of Russia to Western organizations such as the WTO, energy conservation, and the health and wellness of the two populations.

On the scheduled expiration of START, ratified by Russia and the United States in 1991 to achieve a dramatic reduction in strategic forces, Cohen said “If President Obama and his counterparts are dedicated to doing that [complete the renewal of START by the end of the year], it’s achievable.”

Cohen reiterated the importance of Russia’s role in foreign affairs, indicating that “the non proliferation of weapons of mass destruction: we both have interests in that; curbing Iranian and North Korean nuclear ambitions. Frankly I don’t really think we will be able to solve Iran’s ambitions for nuclear weapons capability without the help of Russia. Russia will have far more leverage than we will. The question is are they going to be wiling to exercise that leverage in their dealings with Iran. They have serious commercial interests in Iran...”

Charap agreed with Cohen that the U.S. should include Russia in international organizations.

“The administration's policies should be guided by the long term goal of integrating Russia into western and other international institutions. integration in these structures, rather than isolation from them is in the U.S national interest because they require greater accountability,” said Charap.

In addition to national security issues, Cohen also discussed economic benefits of renewed ties between the two nations.

“[Russians] need to have Western investment and it has not exactly been a hospitable environment for Western investment. There are serious questions remaining concerning the rule of law... and safe investment,” said Cohen, adding that “The U.S should encourage the development of a democratic Russia that observes the universal values of human rights, political pluralism and the rule of law” in order to encourage foreign direct investment.

Key U.S.-Russia Non-Proliferation Treaty May Expire Without Renewal, Say Foreign Affairs Experts

By Celia Canon- Talk Radio News Service

Charles D. Ferguson and Stephen Sestanovich, Senior Fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations, explained that the 1991 START non-proliferation treaty may not be renewed following the U.S.-Russia Summit this July.

“There can’t be an agreement unless there’s also a formal renunciation by the U.S of the missile defense plan. That’s rather unlikely to happen, and if the Russian stick to that line, the chances of arms control are [slim],” said Sestanovich.

START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was ratified in 1991 by Russia and the U.S in an effort to achieve a dramatic reduction in strategic forces such as warheads and inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the post-Cold War era.

According to the U.S. based Arms Control Association, “Russia claimed 4,237 total deployed strategic warheads under the terms of the 1991 START nuclear reductions agreement” while the U.S has 3,696 deployed strategic warheads.

“What has really agitated the Russians... is the American plan to deploy some rather basic elements of the missile defense system in Eastern Europe,” Sestanovich explained, referencing the Bush administration’s decision to install missiles at a base in Poland and to build a radar station in the Czech Republic. Both deals intended to protect Europe from “rogue states” such as Iran.

Ferguson added, “The [Obama] administration has a review of its missile defense policy on the way, and that makes it a little more difficult for them to reach any specific understandings with the Russian about this issue. They can’t offer certain kinds of assurances.”

President Barack Obama has recently agreed to halt military developments in Eastern Europe if Russia agrees to participate actively against Iran.

Ferguson countered Moscow’s accusations that a U.S presence in neighboring states is a serious military threat, saying “What we are looking at is a much smaller, much more modest missile defense system... There’s really no technical reasons for the Russians to be worried at this stage about missile defense as it is currently proposed.”

Introducing The New Nuclear Pandemic

By Celia Canon- Talk Radio News Service

Americans should be more concerned by the proliferation of nuclear weapons from North Korea to other states or non-state actors, rather than focus on a direct N.Korean nuclear attack on the Western World.

Such was the conclusion of former Secretary of Defense William Perry when addressing the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) on U.S nuclear weapons policy today.

“When we are concerned about proliferation, for example from N.Korea to Iran, we are concerned with the possibility that nuclear terrorists might be a bomb... The greater danger is that the bomb or the fissile material leak from one of these countries.” said Perry.

On Monday, N.Korea announced that it had successfully detonated and underground nuclear bomb, and on Tuesday, it launched two short-range ballistic missiles. As a result, the Obama administration may be facing an unexpected turn in the nuclear debate.

The topic is gaining momentum as talks between the U.S and Russia on the renewal of the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start) are feared to be unsuccessful.

That N.Korea has nuclear capabilities and is testing missiles has fanned the flames on the necessity to reconsider the reduction in the Department of Defense FY2010 budget.

Perry was joined by Brent Scowcroft, former assistant to the President for National Security Affairs who explained that “a great danger in nuclear terrorism lies with the civilian nuclear power and the loose fissile material that comes with that.”

Scowcroft appealed to the security dilemma to provide a link between N.Korea or Iran acquiring a nuclear power and nuclear terrorism.

“If we don’t put a cap on proliferation now, we could easily face 30 or 40 countries with that capability, That is not a better world,” said Scowcroft, adding that “If [Iran and N.Korea] are free to enrich uranium to weapons grade, then you have others who want to do it just for protection or whatever and then you have a tremendous danger of terrorists getting hold of fissile material and then its relatively easy.”

The U.S government had already started to deal with this problem under the Bush junior administration, as Perry explains: “For one thing I support the initiative of the previous administration called the Proliferation Security initiative (PSI) and the recent moves to strengthen this initiative.”

Former President George.W. Bush said that PSI’s aim is "to keep the world's most destructive weapons away from our shores and out of the hands of our common enemies."

The initiative is limited to controlling alien ships in one’s waters to search for weapons. Airways are however not part of the PSI.