North Korean Threat Not So Imminent?

By Celia Canon- Talk Radio News Service.

Analysts for the Brookings Institution gathered to assess the North Korean threat on America and its allies in reaction to N.Korea's recent underground nuclear bomb detonation and the launch of two short-range missiles.

The think tank was pressed into discussing the matter following North-Korea’s acceleration in its military activity.

Pyongyang had already caught the international community’s attention in October 2007 by unsuccessfully testing a nuclear weapon.

However the threat posed by the North Asian state has reached new heights after N.Korea announced that it had conducted underground nuclear tests on Monday, followed by two short-range missiles (a ground-to-ship missile and a ground-to-air missile) launched from an east-coast base on Tuesday.

Michael O’Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution warned that although “Their options are limited,” threats must be taken seriously, they must be mitigated.

Richard Bush, a Senior Fellow and Director for the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, confirmed that “They have a problem though, and that is that deterrence is not yet credible; their missiles don’t fly far enough and accurately enough, the weapons design is not yet perfect and so they need to test, that's the only way they can demonstrate to others that they have the capability to inflict harm on the United States and on Japan.”

If the production of the missiles is one leap closer to achieving significant nuclear capabilities, O’Hanlon explained that “The real issue is the size of the weapon and how deliverable it would be by the North Koreans, if they were to choose to deliver it some day.”

Additionally, “[The missile] has to survive the stresses of missile flight, which are no trivial,” said O’Hanlon.

However, according to the analysts, this does not mean that a threat is nonexistent but rather that the U.S should not be concerned by missiles coming from North Korea directly.

O’Hanlon said “I would say the most worrisome question is the sale of nuclear material because if they attack South Korea, their regime will end.”

O’Hanlon concluded that “The only thing they can plausibly get way with is the sale.”

Six-party talks only alternative for peace in North Korea?

by Christina Lovato, University of New Mexico-Talk Radio News Service

The planned rocket launch in defiance of international law by North Korea should not hinder U.S. hopes of achieving the peaceful denuclearization of the North, an opinion backed by senior-level U.S. diplomats.

“Korea and the U.S. are fully at one voice now in tackling the North Korea missile launch and also in pushing forward the six-party process,” said Han Duk-soo, Korean Ambassador to the United States.

“The six-party talks should be promoted. That is at present the only alternative to the peaceful denuclearization of North Korea,” said Han Duk-soo. “Peace and security and prosperity in this region is very crucial not only for this region but also for the global community.”

Lee Ki-Taek, Vice Chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council said that the launch was a threat. But “It does not matter whether it was a satellite or missile for it was clearly not hope,”he said.

Charles L. Pritchard, President of the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, D.C. said that the Obama administration has shown a “conservative” response to what’s been going on with North Korea.

“The United States, it has been said here already, intends to maintain the six-party talks as the basis of engagement of North Korea. That may not turn out to be quite as accurate as they hoped,” Pritchard said.

Pritchard said that the U.S. has made an emphasis on bilateral ties, and has been directly engaged in the consultation process with North Korea and Japan.

Pritchard suggested that the continuation of the tri-lateral coordination is necessary, but that the idea of withholding visas for North Koreans as a form of punishment should be tossed out the window.