Analysts for the Brookings Institution gathered to assess the North Korean threat on America and its allies in reaction to N.Korea's recent underground nuclear bomb detonation and the launch of two short-range missiles.
The think tank was pressed into discussing the matter following North-Korea’s acceleration in its military activity.
Pyongyang had already caught the international community’s attention in October 2007 by unsuccessfully testing a nuclear weapon.
However the threat posed by the North Asian state has reached new heights after N.Korea announced that it had conducted underground nuclear tests on Monday, followed by two short-range missiles (a ground-to-ship missile and a ground-to-air missile) launched from an east-coast base on Tuesday.
Michael O’Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution warned that although “Their options are limited,” threats must be taken seriously, they must be mitigated.
Richard Bush, a Senior Fellow and Director for the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, confirmed that “They have a problem though, and that is that deterrence is not yet credible; their missiles don’t fly far enough and accurately enough, the weapons design is not yet perfect and so they need to test, that's the only way they can demonstrate to others that they have the capability to inflict harm on the United States and on Japan.”
If the production of the missiles is one leap closer to achieving significant nuclear capabilities, O’Hanlon explained that “The real issue is the size of the weapon and how deliverable it would be by the North Koreans, if they were to choose to deliver it some day.”
Additionally, “[The missile] has to survive the stresses of missile flight, which are no trivial,” said O’Hanlon.
However, according to the analysts, this does not mean that a threat is nonexistent but rather that the U.S should not be concerned by missiles coming from North Korea directly.
O’Hanlon said “I would say the most worrisome question is the sale of nuclear material because if they attack South Korea, their regime will end.”
O’Hanlon concluded that “The only thing they can plausibly get way with is the sale.”
North Korean Threat Not So Imminent?
Analysts for the Brookings Institution gathered to assess the North Korean threat on America and its allies in reaction to N.Korea's recent underground nuclear bomb detonation and the launch of two short-range missiles.
The think tank was pressed into discussing the matter following North-Korea’s acceleration in its military activity.
Pyongyang had already caught the international community’s attention in October 2007 by unsuccessfully testing a nuclear weapon.
However the threat posed by the North Asian state has reached new heights after N.Korea announced that it had conducted underground nuclear tests on Monday, followed by two short-range missiles (a ground-to-ship missile and a ground-to-air missile) launched from an east-coast base on Tuesday.
Michael O’Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution warned that although “Their options are limited,” threats must be taken seriously, they must be mitigated.
Richard Bush, a Senior Fellow and Director for the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, confirmed that “They have a problem though, and that is that deterrence is not yet credible; their missiles don’t fly far enough and accurately enough, the weapons design is not yet perfect and so they need to test, that's the only way they can demonstrate to others that they have the capability to inflict harm on the United States and on Japan.”
If the production of the missiles is one leap closer to achieving significant nuclear capabilities, O’Hanlon explained that “The real issue is the size of the weapon and how deliverable it would be by the North Koreans, if they were to choose to deliver it some day.”
Additionally, “[The missile] has to survive the stresses of missile flight, which are no trivial,” said O’Hanlon.
However, according to the analysts, this does not mean that a threat is nonexistent but rather that the U.S should not be concerned by missiles coming from North Korea directly.
O’Hanlon said “I would say the most worrisome question is the sale of nuclear material because if they attack South Korea, their regime will end.”
O’Hanlon concluded that “The only thing they can plausibly get way with is the sale.”