Thursday
Feb192009
Netanyahu likely to be Israel's next Prime Minister
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 1:57PM
After a close and inconclusive election, with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party holding 27 seats, and Tzipi Livni's Kadima party holding 28 seats, it seems that coalition negotiations will turn to favor Netanyahu as the next Prime Minister of Israel. This became apparent when Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the third largest party in the Israeli parliament, expressed his support for Netanyahu. While coalition negotiations should take several more weeks, this election showed a substantial loss for the left wing parties and a decisive voting shift to the right.
The Brookings Institution held a panel today with authors Martin Indyk, Senior Fellow and Directory of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Stanley Greenberg, Chairman and CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, to discuss what this outcome means for the future of the peace process and the U.S. relationship with Israel. Both authors have recently published books dealing with Israeli politics, and both expressed insight that even though the coalition will likely be right-wing, it will not necessarily halt the peace process.
"I don't think we should assume that because the election, which was waged in the middle of the Gaza conflict and produced a majority for the center, or the right block... I would not assume that distribution controls what happens when we get an Israeli government," Greenberg explained, pointing out that the coalition agreement will have more control over the future actions of the government. Indyk pointed out that both Livni and Lieberman are proponents of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, and Netanyahu will likely need their support in building a stable coalition. As a result, negotiations of West Bank land for peace will be possible, even though Netanyahu's party historically opposes giving back this land.
Greenberg also pointed out that Israeli public opinion has historically shown to be dynamic, and this means that peace talks with the Palestinians and Syria are possible under this right-wing government. He explained, "If Israeli leaders with U.S. support decide that this is necessary for Israelis sustaining Israel, for Israel's security, for Israel's future, I believe the Israeli public moves."
Indyk explained that he also believes peace talks with Syria are likely, because of Netanyahu's political history. "Here we go back to the 1990s experience with Netanyahu, understanding that he's likely nevertheless to face pressure from Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and George Mitchell, to move on the political level when it comes to negotiations with the Palestinians. I believe that it's likely that Netanyahu will adopt the tactic that he adopted back then which was to attempt to deflect American pressure by seeking a deal with the Syrians."
The Brookings Institution held a panel today with authors Martin Indyk, Senior Fellow and Directory of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Stanley Greenberg, Chairman and CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, to discuss what this outcome means for the future of the peace process and the U.S. relationship with Israel. Both authors have recently published books dealing with Israeli politics, and both expressed insight that even though the coalition will likely be right-wing, it will not necessarily halt the peace process.
"I don't think we should assume that because the election, which was waged in the middle of the Gaza conflict and produced a majority for the center, or the right block... I would not assume that distribution controls what happens when we get an Israeli government," Greenberg explained, pointing out that the coalition agreement will have more control over the future actions of the government. Indyk pointed out that both Livni and Lieberman are proponents of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, and Netanyahu will likely need their support in building a stable coalition. As a result, negotiations of West Bank land for peace will be possible, even though Netanyahu's party historically opposes giving back this land.
Greenberg also pointed out that Israeli public opinion has historically shown to be dynamic, and this means that peace talks with the Palestinians and Syria are possible under this right-wing government. He explained, "If Israeli leaders with U.S. support decide that this is necessary for Israelis sustaining Israel, for Israel's security, for Israel's future, I believe the Israeli public moves."
Indyk explained that he also believes peace talks with Syria are likely, because of Netanyahu's political history. "Here we go back to the 1990s experience with Netanyahu, understanding that he's likely nevertheless to face pressure from Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and George Mitchell, to move on the political level when it comes to negotiations with the Palestinians. I believe that it's likely that Netanyahu will adopt the tactic that he adopted back then which was to attempt to deflect American pressure by seeking a deal with the Syrians."
New Israeli government brings hope for peace with Syria
One outcome of this election is an apparent shift to the right in Israeli voting, with the right-wing and center parties gaining the most seats, and the left-wing party lagging behind. Peri believes that this is based on a philosophy started by Ariel Sharon, that the Israeli government's first priority should be security and tranquility within Israel, and peace talks should come as a secondary outcome. Therefore people vote for the parties that they believe will keep Israel's safety first. This shift, therefore, does not mean that Israelis do not want to pursue peace, as public opinion polls show more people than ever supporting a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Peri was not optimistic that the new Israeli administration will be able to bring about peace with the Palestinians because of Hamas' control in Gaza, and the lack of national unity within the Palestinian territories. However, Peri believes that peace talks with Syria are highly likely within the next two years, and that this could change the dynamic of power in the entire Middle East. He views Syrians as a good candidate for peace negotiations because the border disputes are not tied to religion, and because the Syrian government presents a united front and can stand by their word. Peri believes that Syria wants to pursue peace with Israel so that they can improve their relation with the United States. He sees this as changing the relations of Syria and Iran, meaning that Syria will also no longer support Hamas. Peri called this possibility "the silver lining" in the prospects for peace in the upcoming years.