Thursday
Feb192009
Netanyahu likely to be Israel's next Prime Minister
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 1:57PM
After a close and inconclusive election, with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party holding 27 seats, and Tzipi Livni's Kadima party holding 28 seats, it seems that coalition negotiations will turn to favor Netanyahu as the next Prime Minister of Israel. This became apparent when Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the third largest party in the Israeli parliament, expressed his support for Netanyahu. While coalition negotiations should take several more weeks, this election showed a substantial loss for the left wing parties and a decisive voting shift to the right.
The Brookings Institution held a panel today with authors Martin Indyk, Senior Fellow and Directory of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Stanley Greenberg, Chairman and CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, to discuss what this outcome means for the future of the peace process and the U.S. relationship with Israel. Both authors have recently published books dealing with Israeli politics, and both expressed insight that even though the coalition will likely be right-wing, it will not necessarily halt the peace process.
"I don't think we should assume that because the election, which was waged in the middle of the Gaza conflict and produced a majority for the center, or the right block... I would not assume that distribution controls what happens when we get an Israeli government," Greenberg explained, pointing out that the coalition agreement will have more control over the future actions of the government. Indyk pointed out that both Livni and Lieberman are proponents of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, and Netanyahu will likely need their support in building a stable coalition. As a result, negotiations of West Bank land for peace will be possible, even though Netanyahu's party historically opposes giving back this land.
Greenberg also pointed out that Israeli public opinion has historically shown to be dynamic, and this means that peace talks with the Palestinians and Syria are possible under this right-wing government. He explained, "If Israeli leaders with U.S. support decide that this is necessary for Israelis sustaining Israel, for Israel's security, for Israel's future, I believe the Israeli public moves."
Indyk explained that he also believes peace talks with Syria are likely, because of Netanyahu's political history. "Here we go back to the 1990s experience with Netanyahu, understanding that he's likely nevertheless to face pressure from Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and George Mitchell, to move on the political level when it comes to negotiations with the Palestinians. I believe that it's likely that Netanyahu will adopt the tactic that he adopted back then which was to attempt to deflect American pressure by seeking a deal with the Syrians."
The Brookings Institution held a panel today with authors Martin Indyk, Senior Fellow and Directory of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Stanley Greenberg, Chairman and CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, to discuss what this outcome means for the future of the peace process and the U.S. relationship with Israel. Both authors have recently published books dealing with Israeli politics, and both expressed insight that even though the coalition will likely be right-wing, it will not necessarily halt the peace process.
"I don't think we should assume that because the election, which was waged in the middle of the Gaza conflict and produced a majority for the center, or the right block... I would not assume that distribution controls what happens when we get an Israeli government," Greenberg explained, pointing out that the coalition agreement will have more control over the future actions of the government. Indyk pointed out that both Livni and Lieberman are proponents of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, and Netanyahu will likely need their support in building a stable coalition. As a result, negotiations of West Bank land for peace will be possible, even though Netanyahu's party historically opposes giving back this land.
Greenberg also pointed out that Israeli public opinion has historically shown to be dynamic, and this means that peace talks with the Palestinians and Syria are possible under this right-wing government. He explained, "If Israeli leaders with U.S. support decide that this is necessary for Israelis sustaining Israel, for Israel's security, for Israel's future, I believe the Israeli public moves."
Indyk explained that he also believes peace talks with Syria are likely, because of Netanyahu's political history. "Here we go back to the 1990s experience with Netanyahu, understanding that he's likely nevertheless to face pressure from Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and George Mitchell, to move on the political level when it comes to negotiations with the Palestinians. I believe that it's likely that Netanyahu will adopt the tactic that he adopted back then which was to attempt to deflect American pressure by seeking a deal with the Syrians."
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