Iowa Preps For A Photo Finish

The Repubilcan caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish with three of the candidates being separated by just two percentage points. 

According to the latest poll by Public Policy Polling, the Iowa caucus will go down to the wire as Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are raking in 20, 19 and 18 percent of the vote, respectively. 

Romney and Paul have seen similar figures in Iowa in recent weeks, but the momentum is being controlled by Rick Santorum who has clawed his way back to relevancy in the last few days. 

In addition to Santorum’s surge is Paul’s fall. Paul was previously seeing numbers in the mid-twenties but that has fallen below 20 percent and below Romney. 

“It’s impossible to say who’s going to win Tuesday night,” said Dean Debman, President of Public Poling Policy. “If you think momentum will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Santorum. If you think having the most passionate supporters will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Paul. And if you think the ability to beat Barack Obama will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Romney.”

The remainder of the field has been quietly dwindling. After seeing strong national support, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is lagging behind with 14 percent support. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman round up the field with just 10, 8 and 4 percent, respectively.  

The results of PPP’s survey were based on the surveys of 1,340 likely Republican caucus voters on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. 

Santorum Surges In Iowa

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has dedicated much of his time and money trying to win over voters in Iowa in recent weeks, and it finally seems to be paying dividends. 

According to the Des Moines Register’s latest in-state poll, Santorum is quickly gaining ground on frontrunners Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Santorum now sits in third place in Iowa with 15 percent support, nearly a double-digit deficit after four days of polling.  

Romney and Paul rake in 24 and 22 percent support, respectively, and though Santorum has struggled to gain national notoriety in the Republican presidential primary, he has continued to climb in Iowa. 

In fact, Santorum has seen figures that look more promising than his four-day, 15 percent would lead you to believe. According to the poll, the order of the top three candidates in Iowa is rearranged in the last two days, with Santorum replacing Paul as the number two in Iowa.

In the first two days of polling, Santorum was barely seeing double-digit support with ten percent. In the final day of polling, however,  Santorum’s rise became more evident when he doubled his earlier totals, falling just one percentage point short of Mitt Romney’s 23 percent.  

The poll was conducted from Dec. 27-30 and results are based on the telephone interviews of 602 likely Republican voters.

Poll: Gingrich Benefitting Most From Cain's Departure

Former House Speaker and GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich is basking in the aftermath of pizza mogul Herman Cain’s campaign suspension announcement on Saturday. 

According to a Poll Position survey, Gingrich now holds a double digit lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Gingrich is likely reaping the benefits of Cain’s weekend announcement, raking in 37 percent support from likely voters. Romney, on the other hand, continues to rake in the 23 percent that he’s seen throughout the camapign. 

Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), along with Texas Governor Rick Perry, are only seeing single digits with 7, 6 and 3 percent, respectively. Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum round up the GOP field, each earning 2 percent support.

Gingrich is now building a wider support base, specifically among conservatives who are searching for the best alternative to Romney. With Cain’s supporters now on the hunt for a new candidate to support, the remaining candidates are sure to see an influx, but the first post-Cain poll indicates that those voters are already signing on to the Gingrich campaign. 

With less than a month before the Iowa caucuses, the remaining candidates are making moves to shepherd the wandering Cain supporters. Perry is now calling himself “the only Washington outsider left,” and Bachmann said Sunday that a number of Cain supporters have been calling her campaign offices. 

With reports circling about a possible Cain endorsement of Gingrich, it’s clear the former Speaker will benefit most from the pizza mogul’s departure.