Iowa Preps For A Photo Finish

The Repubilcan caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish with three of the candidates being separated by just two percentage points. 

According to the latest poll by Public Policy Polling, the Iowa caucus will go down to the wire as Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are raking in 20, 19 and 18 percent of the vote, respectively. 

Romney and Paul have seen similar figures in Iowa in recent weeks, but the momentum is being controlled by Rick Santorum who has clawed his way back to relevancy in the last few days. 

In addition to Santorum’s surge is Paul’s fall. Paul was previously seeing numbers in the mid-twenties but that has fallen below 20 percent and below Romney. 

“It’s impossible to say who’s going to win Tuesday night,” said Dean Debman, President of Public Poling Policy. “If you think momentum will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Santorum. If you think having the most passionate supporters will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Paul. And if you think the ability to beat Barack Obama will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Romney.”

The remainder of the field has been quietly dwindling. After seeing strong national support, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is lagging behind with 14 percent support. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman round up the field with just 10, 8 and 4 percent, respectively.  

The results of PPP’s survey were based on the surveys of 1,340 likely Republican caucus voters on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. 

Poll: Gingrich Benefitting Most From Cain's Departure

Former House Speaker and GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich is basking in the aftermath of pizza mogul Herman Cain’s campaign suspension announcement on Saturday. 

According to a Poll Position survey, Gingrich now holds a double digit lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Gingrich is likely reaping the benefits of Cain’s weekend announcement, raking in 37 percent support from likely voters. Romney, on the other hand, continues to rake in the 23 percent that he’s seen throughout the camapign. 

Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), along with Texas Governor Rick Perry, are only seeing single digits with 7, 6 and 3 percent, respectively. Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum round up the GOP field, each earning 2 percent support.

Gingrich is now building a wider support base, specifically among conservatives who are searching for the best alternative to Romney. With Cain’s supporters now on the hunt for a new candidate to support, the remaining candidates are sure to see an influx, but the first post-Cain poll indicates that those voters are already signing on to the Gingrich campaign. 

With less than a month before the Iowa caucuses, the remaining candidates are making moves to shepherd the wandering Cain supporters. Perry is now calling himself “the only Washington outsider left,” and Bachmann said Sunday that a number of Cain supporters have been calling her campaign offices. 

With reports circling about a possible Cain endorsement of Gingrich, it’s clear the former Speaker will benefit most from the pizza mogul’s departure. 

Tea Party Underwhelmed By Current GOP Field

TAMPA — Conservatives will be paying particularly close attention to tonight’s Republican debate, the second of three scheduled for this month and the first ever to be co-hosted by the Tea Party.

At a pre-debate luncheon sponsored by the Heritage Foundation, voters listened to analysts explain what candidates must do to win the support of the Tea Party crowd. Most of the 150 or so in attendance raised their hands when CNN’s John King, who moderated the panel discussion, asked them whether they were satisfied with the current field. Moreover, only a handful said they wanted former Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin to enter the race.

That would appear to be good news for the current crop of contenders. Except that there are still some out there who question whether the candidates will truly represent the Tea Party’s interests.

For example, ever heard of Agenda 21? Probably not. But ask members of the Sutter Buttes Tea Party based in Yuba City, California. These folks argue that the plan, adopted by 178 nations at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) back in 1992, is allowing governments worldwide to force “green” lifestyles upon citizens. The issue most recently came up during a townhall event hosted by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who downplayed concerns over Agenda 21 after being confronted about it. Larry Virga, Coordinator of the Sutter Buttes Tea Party Patriots, told me that even the most conservative of candidates this cycle have not paid enough attention to the issue. He doubted that any of them have even heard about the program.

It’s extremely unlikely that the topic of Agenda 21 will surface either at tonight’s debate or any others that will follow. Candidates will instead be asked about their plans to grow the economy, strengthen America’s safety net programs and manage the nation’s wars abroad. In the end, the vast majority of those who align with the Tea Party will vote for a Republican — whether it’s Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin or anyone else — against President Obama next year.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll feel comfortable with their choice.

Larry Calabretta, who made the roughly one-hour trip down I-4 from Orlando, told me today that he doubts whether Republican leaders in Washington “get” the Tea Party. “I don’t know,” he said. “That remains to be seen.”

“Absolutely not,” added Billie Tucker, a leader in the First Coast Tea Party based in Jacksonville, Florida.

When I asked Calabretta about Perry, the presumptive frontrunner who leads the rest of the field according to recent polls, he sounded skeptical.

“I think a lot of [Perry’s success] is media driven,” he said. “Rush [Limbaugh] is right…you listen to what the media is saying and that’s who you want to steer away from.”