Thursday
Feb192009
Netanyahu likely to be Israel's next Prime Minister
After a close and inconclusive election, with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party holding 27 seats, and Tzipi Livni's Kadima party holding 28 seats, it seems that coalition negotiations will turn to favor Netanyahu as the next Prime Minister of Israel. This became apparent when Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the third largest party in the Israeli parliament, expressed his support for Netanyahu. While coalition negotiations should take several more weeks, this election showed a substantial loss for the left wing parties and a decisive voting shift to the right.
The Brookings Institution held a panel today with authors Martin Indyk, Senior Fellow and Directory of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Stanley Greenberg, Chairman and CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, to discuss what this outcome means for the future of the peace process and the U.S. relationship with Israel. Both authors have recently published books dealing with Israeli politics, and both expressed insight that even though the coalition will likely be right-wing, it will not necessarily halt the peace process.
"I don't think we should assume that because the election, which was waged in the middle of the Gaza conflict and produced a majority for the center, or the right block... I would not assume that distribution controls what happens when we get an Israeli government," Greenberg explained, pointing out that the coalition agreement will have more control over the future actions of the government. Indyk pointed out that both Livni and Lieberman are proponents of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, and Netanyahu will likely need their support in building a stable coalition. As a result, negotiations of West Bank land for peace will be possible, even though Netanyahu's party historically opposes giving back this land.
Greenberg also pointed out that Israeli public opinion has historically shown to be dynamic, and this means that peace talks with the Palestinians and Syria are possible under this right-wing government. He explained, "If Israeli leaders with U.S. support decide that this is necessary for Israelis sustaining Israel, for Israel's security, for Israel's future, I believe the Israeli public moves."
Indyk explained that he also believes peace talks with Syria are likely, because of Netanyahu's political history. "Here we go back to the 1990s experience with Netanyahu, understanding that he's likely nevertheless to face pressure from Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and George Mitchell, to move on the political level when it comes to negotiations with the Palestinians. I believe that it's likely that Netanyahu will adopt the tactic that he adopted back then which was to attempt to deflect American pressure by seeking a deal with the Syrians."
The Brookings Institution held a panel today with authors Martin Indyk, Senior Fellow and Directory of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Stanley Greenberg, Chairman and CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, to discuss what this outcome means for the future of the peace process and the U.S. relationship with Israel. Both authors have recently published books dealing with Israeli politics, and both expressed insight that even though the coalition will likely be right-wing, it will not necessarily halt the peace process.
"I don't think we should assume that because the election, which was waged in the middle of the Gaza conflict and produced a majority for the center, or the right block... I would not assume that distribution controls what happens when we get an Israeli government," Greenberg explained, pointing out that the coalition agreement will have more control over the future actions of the government. Indyk pointed out that both Livni and Lieberman are proponents of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, and Netanyahu will likely need their support in building a stable coalition. As a result, negotiations of West Bank land for peace will be possible, even though Netanyahu's party historically opposes giving back this land.
Greenberg also pointed out that Israeli public opinion has historically shown to be dynamic, and this means that peace talks with the Palestinians and Syria are possible under this right-wing government. He explained, "If Israeli leaders with U.S. support decide that this is necessary for Israelis sustaining Israel, for Israel's security, for Israel's future, I believe the Israeli public moves."
Indyk explained that he also believes peace talks with Syria are likely, because of Netanyahu's political history. "Here we go back to the 1990s experience with Netanyahu, understanding that he's likely nevertheless to face pressure from Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and George Mitchell, to move on the political level when it comes to negotiations with the Palestinians. I believe that it's likely that Netanyahu will adopt the tactic that he adopted back then which was to attempt to deflect American pressure by seeking a deal with the Syrians."
Biden and Kerry: Israel and America Inextricably Linked
But, "One enduring essential principle that will not change--United States support for Israel,” said Vice President Joe Biden to a standing ovation of more than 6,000 people at the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee's annual convention.
“The path we have been on in recent years has not produced peace and security for Israel and Palestinians, nor will they produce these results,” Biden said. “Because peace has not occurred, does not mean that it cannot occur."
U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), who also spoke at the event, supports the Obama Administration’s policy with Israel. “You can count on Vice President Biden and President Obama in the future,” he said.
Kerry tried to calm fears about Obama’s decision to engage in open discussions with Iran because he believed that the previous administration’s strategy with the Middle Eastern country failed, and that a change is warranted. But, if diplomacy fails, hardline sanctions will be sure to follow, Kerry said.
Since December 2008, foreign criticism of Israel reached new levels. Israel decided to retaliate against Hamas by launching a full military incursion into the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Government maintains that the action was an attempt to halt hundreds of rockets that are launched over Israeli borders by militant groups in neighboring countries.
“I heard of (Israeli) children in the second grade who had spent literally everyday of their lives never 15 seconds from danger/ Fifteen seconds... No child should live that way,” said Kerry to the audience.
Kerry is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and pledged to do everything in his power “to ensure that the $30 billion in security assistance that Congress pledged to Israel is delivered in full.”
Kerry and Biden presented a challenge to Israel: that the country needs to work toward a workable, long lasting and sustainable peace.
Biden believes that any peace is a “show-me plan,” that each side must make efforts to demonstrate their dedication for the process to continue.
Biden said that the building of Israeli settlements must be stopped and that Palestinians must be given freedom of movement so the young people see hope, and do not join Hamas.
But peace must be sought from Paestinians and Israelis. “You cannot make peace out of one side of their mouth and preach hate out of another,” said Kerry, adding that Palestinian geography books should be realistic by including Israel on the map.