Monday
Mar302009
The worst is yet to come in Sudan
“If people think the worst is behind us, they do not know Sudan,” said Andrew Natsios, former Administrator for the United States Agency on International Development, who described his concern that the situation in Sudan could escalate into violence. Mr. Natsios gave his own view on how America should deal with the Sudanese issue, and he stressed that America should work towards peace and should forget about bringing the individuals who committed atrocities to justice. The reason for such a controversial assertion is that western forms of justice are foreign to Sudan, and attempting to arrest and try 20,000 janjaweed or Sudanese soldiers is infeasible.
Additionally, Natsios outlined the basic issues that need to be settled before the 2011 referendum, in which southern Sudan can vote to become a sovereign state. Firstly, the border between the north and south needs to be entirely settled, as currently only 80 percent of it is. Secondly, the north and south must decide how to share the oil revenue because the current provision stipulates that the two sides split the amount. However, since most of the oil is located in the south, they may want to obtain a larger share of the revenue, which would stall all peace talks and lead to a breakout of violence. Nastios discussed how in 2019 the oil fields will be depleted, and “the notion that were going to have a nation go to war with a bloodbath potentially over oil fields that will be depleted in less than ten years would be a tragedy.”
Nastios asserted that America should seek to use positive incentives not negative ones in order to encourage the Sudanese government to actually reform its actions. America must cease seeking a regime change because this will cause the United States to become isolated from its European and Asian allies. Also, America should fight to get the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO’s) back into the Sudanese refugee camps, and strengthen the southern military in order to prevent a Northern attack upon it. Nastios worried that if America did not follow this plan, then Sudan could become once again entrenched in a new and even bloodier civil war.
Additionally, Natsios outlined the basic issues that need to be settled before the 2011 referendum, in which southern Sudan can vote to become a sovereign state. Firstly, the border between the north and south needs to be entirely settled, as currently only 80 percent of it is. Secondly, the north and south must decide how to share the oil revenue because the current provision stipulates that the two sides split the amount. However, since most of the oil is located in the south, they may want to obtain a larger share of the revenue, which would stall all peace talks and lead to a breakout of violence. Nastios discussed how in 2019 the oil fields will be depleted, and “the notion that were going to have a nation go to war with a bloodbath potentially over oil fields that will be depleted in less than ten years would be a tragedy.”
Nastios asserted that America should seek to use positive incentives not negative ones in order to encourage the Sudanese government to actually reform its actions. America must cease seeking a regime change because this will cause the United States to become isolated from its European and Asian allies. Also, America should fight to get the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO’s) back into the Sudanese refugee camps, and strengthen the southern military in order to prevent a Northern attack upon it. Nastios worried that if America did not follow this plan, then Sudan could become once again entrenched in a new and even bloodier civil war.
tagged 
Andrew Natsios, Janjaweed, Sudan, US AID in News/Commentary
Andrew Natsios, Janjaweed, Sudan, US AID in News/Commentary
Reader Comments (1)
If you are really interested in keeping Sudan one country and safe heaven to its people and others US and allies have to stop their biased and bad attitude towards the majority of Sudan population (what called northern).Theier acceptable efforts should go towards forcing unlimited rebel groups to sit and talk to the GOS. They have started the voilence with out thinking to the outcomes. The rebels represent factions of tribes in Darfur and not all Darfurians.Through democractic representations they can easily get what they want. After peace justice will be more easier. Getting peace in Darfur will also help Southern to make easy decision to be seperate or to remain.