Osama bin Laden still plotting attacks on America

More than seven years after 9/11, Osama bin Laden is not caught nor dead and according to Bruce Hoffman, professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. The al-Qaida network is establishing safe havens and re-organizing in the regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan, showing they’re becoming even more dangerous and likely to succeed with a new attack against America, he said. “I see al-Qaida having a lot to celebrate in 2008,” said Hoffman at the ‘Al Qaeda 3.0’ conference hosted by the New American Foundation and New York University’s Center on Law and Security.

According to Frances Townsend, Homeland Security adviser to President Bush during 2004-2008, establishing instability and strengthening extremism among the tribal areas in Pakistan is another strategical move of the al-Qaida network in order to get nuclear armed. “The Taliban has re-established it’s strength in Afghanistan, they are working very diligently to destabilized the new government in Pakistan,” Townsend said. She highlighted the importance of America recognizing and not underestimate the major influence al-Qaida have on geopolitics as they continuously have intentions to be influential in the area. Her future expectations is that the al-Qaida network will expand the foot hold they have gained in Pakistan, and continue to plot a new attack on U.S. soil and execute it.

Peter Bergen, senior fellow at New American Foundation and CNN’s national security analyst, highlighted the decreasing popularity and public support of the al-Qaida network. He said the strategy of Osama bin Laden is attack the far enemy to make his close enemies to fall. According to Bergen, the leaders and members of al-Qaida are not poor and undereducated people. “If you’re poor, you’re too busy being poor to be a terrorist,” said Bergen. He also underlined that there is still sleeping terrorist cells within American borders, planning a new attack on the United States.

Rethinking Afghanistan

While Iraq has dominated the majority of media and military attention since 2002, the public focus is beginning to shift.

The border between Afghanistan and western Pakistan, a region known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas that remains ungoverned by either Afghanistan or Pakistan, has been marred with violence and an increase in al-Qaeda and Taliban presence.

"In many of these settled areas relentless Taliban incursion have already lead to the complete collapse of tribal and civilian administration," said foreign policy analyst Malou Innocent at the Cato Institute.

"According to senior U.S. intelligence officials al-Qaida, Taliban, and allied terrorist groups have 157 training camps in the tribal areas alone and more than 400 logistical support locations in the tribal areas and the northwest frontier provence."

The situation in Afghanistan has been strained as well. Current troop levels have been insufficient for restoring security, due in part both by the amount deployed to Iraq and limitations put on NATO troops.

"We have a fair number of NATO forces, some 30,000, but many of them are stationed up North in the country where there is virtually no threat and virtually no fighting...a number of caveats, restrictions, on the use of their forces. Some can not be used at night, some can not be used in combat zones," said vice president of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute Ted Galen Carpenter.

The drug war has also threatened the chances for stability. While some funding from the international heroin reaches al-Qaida, warlords loyal to Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai and a substantial portion of the general population profit as well. According to Carpenter, these are allies that the U.S. needs to keep.

Still, Carpenter said, even if these problems are addressed it is unlikely that the shape Afghanistan takes will be particularly pleasing to the U.S.

"We have to accept the realities of Afghanistan, of regional power-brokers and less than a western style democracy...the reality is that the Afghan system, such as it was, worked pretty well for a good many decades..."

Carpenter added, "We may even need to see if we can cut a deal with the Afghan Taliban, to divide that fraction from its al-Qaida allies. Much as General Petraeus, rather shrewdly, cut a deal with indigenous Iraqi sunni insurgents to separate them from al-Qaida in Iraq."

Gates on Iraq: We must get the endgame there right

“The surge helped achieve a lower level of violence. It has not yet achieved its stated purpose- political accommodation among Iraq’s leaders,” Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich) said in his opening statement at the Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing on the Situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our “open-ended commitment in Iraq” is an invitation to “continued Iraqi dawdling and dependency,” and it’s carrying the costs of the lives of Americans and billions of dollars.

Senator John Warner (R-Va) expressed his respect for Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and said that he’d had the opportunity to work with every Secretary of Defense since 1969, and that “you never shot from the hip.” Gates, Warner said, understood that they needed bipartisan support and that Gates had it like Warner had never seen before. We thank you, Warner said, but there is much to be done. I commend the concept of the surge, he said, and I commend most heartily the courage of the troops. By any fair and pragmatic judgement, it has been a success.

The withdrawal of approximately 3,400 non-combat forces began this month, Gates began, saying that it will continue through the fall and winter, and finish in January. The drawdown is possible, he said, “because of the success achieved in reducing violence and building Iraqi security capacity.” There has been a fundamental change in the nature of the conflict, and “no matter what you think about the origins of the war in Iraq, we must get the endgame there right.”

In response to a congressional question of the assessment of the new government in Pakistan and their willingness to work with the United States, Gates said they're already seeing positive signs with Pakistan, because Pakistan has suffered a lot of casualties and they’ve captured terrorists. What’s important in Pakistan, is to forge a new stronger partnership with the civilian government. The recent attacks have made it clear to them that there is an existential threat to Pakistan.

Gates said he is not satisfied with the civil reconstruction and the development of the capacity of the Afghan government. “That war on terror started in this region, and it must end there.” The reality is, Gates continued, is that in the last 18 months, we have added over 20,000 troops to Afghanistan, and there are two considerations about the situation. One, we need to think about how heavy a “military footprint” the United States ought to have in Afghanistan, and are we better off channeling resources instead into “building the Afghan Army” as quickly as possible. Two, (which he says he feels is evident to all), is that without changing deployment patterns, and length of tours, we do not have the forces to send three additional brigade combat teams to Afghanistan at this point, but they will probably become available in the spring/summer of 2009. That’s a decision that will ultimately be up to President Bush’s successor.

Code Pink, an anti-war group, proliferated the audience, wearing “Bail out of Iraq” placards and multitudes of pink buttons, signs, and t-shirts. They mainly sat quietly in the audience, appropriately not holding signs above their heads, but at one point one member started calling out “shame!” during Gates’ speech.

White House Gaggle

Briefer: Deputy White House Press Secretary Tony Fratto

President’s Schedule

This morning President Bush got an update from National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and also spoke to Secretary Rice on the phone. He then received his daily intelligence briefings where Georgia was also discussed.
There have been a number of calls made to foreign leader in the last 24 hours: Yesterday, President Bush made calls from Air Force One to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Lithuanian President Adamkus, and President Kaczynski of Poland. Following last night’s statement in the Rose Garden, he also spoke with Georgian President Saakashvili. This morning, President Bush talked to Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi and Chancellor Merkel of Germany.
At 1.15 pm, the President will meet with the Coalition for Affordable American Energy.

At 11 am, National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley will hold a briefing on the situation in Georgia, and there will be no regular White House briefing today.

Georgia

When asked about an assessment of the ground and the White House reaction to Russia’s saying that they are halting their attacks; Fratto said that Hadley will be able to give us an assessment at the 11 am briefing and talk about what a halt really means and whether it is taking place. Fratto is not in a position to talk about the conditions on the ground and how to read it.
Fratto was also asked what else the US can do apart from calling foreign leaders and expressing their disapproval, and he said that the there is great unity within the global community. Everyone believes that cease-fire and returning to the August 6th status is critically important, Fratto said.
When asked if President Bush has been asked to consider any military engagement to back up Georgia, Fratto said that he is not aware of any request. Right now, the US is providing some humanitarian assistance, but we have to wait for the shooting to stop in order to assess the need for the civilian population. At the request of the Georgian authority, the US was able to assist in returning their troops from Iraq.

President Bush talked to Prime Minister Putin in Beijing, and made a phone call to President Medvedev subsequent to that. When asked if there are any plans to call the Russian President now, Fratto said that no calls were planned.
When asked to state who bears the blame for the situation, Fratto replied that he is not going to get in to the position of blame, or become a fact witness of the events, as he thinks it is irrelevant question at this point. It is clear that there have been lots of provocations well before August 6th. The history between Georgia and Russia is long and complicated, and Fratto was not to make any assessments of it.
“Since August 6th… the escalation on the part of Russia was disproportioned to their stated intentions, and that is our position, “Fratto said. He continued to say that at this point Russia need to pull back, agree to a cease fire, respect the territorial integrity of Georgia, and begin a dialogue with the international mediators.


Pakistan

When asked if Fratto had any comment on Pakistan claiming that a senior Al Qaeda commander, Sheik Saeed al-Masri, has been killed, Fratto said that he saw the report just as he walked out to the gaggle and did not have a comment on it.



CPSC legislation signing

Fratto was asked if there are any plans to sign the CPSC legislation today, and he reponded that it is probably going to happen either day or tomorrow.


North Korea

When asked about a comment on today’s meeting between North Korea and Japan, Fratto said that questions regarding de-listing of North Korea requires a verification protocol and will not go forward until fulfilled. However, he also said communication between the parties is still very positive.

Kerry: US in danger of losing in Afghanistan

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) delivered a speech on a new approach to fighting terrorism. Kerry cited a memo authored by Donald Rumsfeld in 2003 that asked if the United States was dissuading more people from becoming terrorists than radical clerics were deploying. Kerry said the United States still is not deterring terrorists, noting al-Qaeda's strength along the Afghan-Pakistani border, the Taliban's resurgence, Hamas's grip in the Gaza Strip, and Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon.

Kerry said the United States should engage in a strategic reorientation already enacted by Saudi Arabia. He stated that the Saudi government has been able to gain the upper-hand in the fight
against terrorism by using counter-indoctrination. According to Kerry, the Saudi government has imams explain Islam's opposition to extremist ideologies to detainees and sponsors messages at soccer matches featuring former terrorists who urge against radical jihad. Kerry said the United States was most successful in the fight against extremism when it provided post-earthquake aid to Pakistan and assisted tsunami relief in Indonesia. Kerry called the Administration's policy of torture and indefinite intention "self-defeating."

To win the global war on terror, Kerry advocated helping Pakistan fight al-Qaeda along the Afghan border and increasing American aid to the Pakistani people, a move he suggested would cause the population to grow tired of extremists' presence. Kerry said "We're in real danger of losing in Afghanistan" and said fixing problems in Pakistan is the only way to prevent a loss from occurring.