Poll Reveals Good News For GOP

A new survey out today shows that voters, by a nine point margin, think Republicans will win back the majority in both the House and Senate this November.

According to the Politico/George Washington University battleground poll, 45% of voters believe the House will switch hands, compared to 36% who think Democrats will hold on to the majority. Moreover, 46% of those surveyed said they believe the Senate will turn red, while only 37% of voters said it will remain blue.

The poll was conducted last week with 1,000 registered “likely” voters. Its margin of error was 3.1%.

Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who participated in a panel discussion on the poll’s results Thursday, said the x-factor this November could be a boost in voter intensity on the part of Republicans and swing voters who went for Obama in 2008.

“This intensity of this dissatisfaction among Republicans and other persuadable voters will present strong challenges for Democratic candidates,” Goeas said. “This election provides an opportunity for these frustrated and angry voters to send a message to Obama via their Congressional and Senate votes.”

Indeed, certain sections of the poll show that Goeas and other GOP’ers have much to boast about. 43% of voters said they strongly disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress have done this year, with 41% possessing a strongly unfavorable view of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Moreover, half of those surveyed said they strongly believe the country is headed on the wrong track.

When it comes to President Obama, more strongly disapprove than strongly approve of the job he has done in office by a 38%-27% margin. Although 47% of those surveyed said they voted for Obama in ‘08, more voters said they’d definitely pick a generic Republican candidate over Obama if the 2012 presidential election were to be held today.

Yet, the news was not all bad for Democrats. 42% of respondents approved strongly of the president on a personal level, an important statistic given that Obama is expected to stump hard for Democrats in the coming weeks. By a 25%-11% margin, more voters blamed the country’s economic situation on Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush, than him. In addition, 38% said they strongly disapprove of the job being done by Republicans in Congress.

“This survey reveals the key fact that the Democrats are not facing the rejuvenated, freshly-branded, Contract-With-America era Republican Party of 1994; they are facing a Party still tarnished by the multiple—and recent—calamities of Bush economics, the war in Iraq, Sarah Palin, and an over-the-top and increasingly frightening Tea Party movement,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who also took part in today’s panel.

“The reality is that the election isn’t over by a long shot, and the Democrats still have ample opportunity to maintain their majority and keep the Republican victory laps to a minimum on November 2nd.”

New Congressional Analysis On Tax Cuts Sparks Debate

Pundits are pointing to new data released by the Joint Committee on Taxation as proof that extending a policy of tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans will saddle the U.S. with more debt.

The study indicates that renewing tax breaks for the top two percent of income earners will add $36 billion to the nation’s debt level in 2011. The cuts, enacted in 2001, and then again in 2003 under President George W. Bush, would grant households making over $1 million a tax cut of roughly $100,000 next year.

Republicans, by and large, have supported the continuation of the cuts, arguing that keeping them alive will make it easier for small business owners to hire. Democrats have countered by accusing the GOP of distorting the definition of ‘small business owner,’ and say the cuts neglect those in need.

In an opinion piece today, The Guardian’s Michael Tomasky accused Republicans of siding with the rich over the middle class. “If it’s for millionaires, it’s good, Period,” he wrote. “It’s never been quite this naked, but there it is.”

Top Democrats agree with Tomasky’s assertion.

“I don’t see any reason why we should renew a tax cut that only gives a tax cut to the wealthiest people in America, increases the deficit, and doesn’t create jobs,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in an interview. “That doesn’t make any sense.”

Yet, data also shows that the previous administration’s plan is almost as generous for middle class Americans as the one proposed by President Obama. For example, under the President’s proposal, an individual making between $50,000 and $75,000 per year would receive an average tax cut of only 13 dollars more than he or she would under the Bush plan.

Republicans say allowing the current cuts to expire equates to a giant tax hike.

“The Democratic leadership is looking to push one of the biggest tax increases in American history,” said Parish Braden, a spokesman for the RNC. “Even members of the Obama administration have said raising taxes in this climate is not good for the economy.”

In the end, Congress may base its decision on what to do on the concern over the nation’s mounting level of debt, currently over $13 trillion. In that case, the Obama tax cuts would add $202 billion to the debt next year, compared to $238 billion should the Bush cuts be extended.

Pelosi Not Happy With Rangel’s Rant

Shortly after Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) took to the House floor yesterday to defend himself against charges that he violated several congressional ethics rules, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) released a shrill statement suggesting the Harlem Democrat had breached protocol.

“As I have repeatedly stated, the independent, bipartisan Ethics Committee is the proper arena for ethics matters to be discussed,” said Pelosi.

During the course of his nearly-30-minute-long tirade, the embattled Rangel addressed a few of the key charges against him, such as securing multiple rent-controlled apartments in New York City, and failing to pay taxes on a vacation property he owned in the Dominican Republic. He defiantly challenged his fellow House colleagues to expel him from Congress, telling them he has no plans to resign, and complained about the pace of the Ethics Committee’s investigation into his alleged misdoings.

“Don’t leave me swinging in the wind until November,” he said. “If you want me to resign, tell me now!”

The response from Democrats to the unannounced speech was likely not what Rangel had hoped it would be.

“Rambling, rambling…Why in the world would he think this would help his cause?” said one Democratic aide to reporters. The Hill newspaper cited another Democratic lawmaker who called Rangel’s remarks a “train wreck.”

Republicans, meanwhile, quickly pounced on the opportunity to focus on the continued scandal that has engulfed the 80-year-old lawmaker.

“If the American people needed any more evidence that Speaker Pelosi’s party is in complete chaos, today they found it,” said Tory Mazzola, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

“Democrats would rather talk about anything other than Charlie Rangel,” Mazzola added.

Pelosi Blasts Boehner Ahead Of House Vote

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) responded today to criticism over her decision to call her chamber back into session to vote tomorrow on a bill that aims to help states avoid making layoffs.

“Why wouldn’t House Republicans want to keep 310,000 teachers, first responders and private sector workers on the job instead of on the unemployment lines?” Pelosi rhetorically asked.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) commented on NBC’s Meet The Press yesterday that the $26 billion measure is another example of Democratic over-spending.

“The American people are screaming at the top of their lungs to Washington, ‘Stop, stop the spending, stop the job-killing policies,’ and yet Democrats in Washington refuse to listen to the American people,” he said.

Pelosi, however, said Boehner is ignoring the fact that the legislation would not add to the nation’s debt, and accused her GOP counterpart of “opposing a fully paid-for jobs bill that reduces the deficit and keeps teachers in the classroom and police officers on the beat.”

The House will convene tomorrow at 10:00 am, with a final vote on the bill expected to take place in the afternoon.

Van Hollen: No Major Legislation During 'Lame-Duck' Session

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), the third-ranking Democrat in the House, told reporters today that he does not anticipate the House voting on anything big during the brief session of Congress following this November’s elections.

“It’s very clear that there’s not gonna be major legislation during that period,” he said, citing Republican “scare-tactics” as the source of such speculation.

Nonetheless, Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), has filed a resolution, to be considered this coming Tuesday - the same day the House will vote on a bill to send emergency aid to states - that would prohibit Congress from voting during the two-month session.

Price defended his resolution on the floor of the House last week.

“Americans are sick and tired of their elected leaders making backroom deals to ram through unpopular, 2000-page bills that no one has read,” he said. “They are sick of out-of-touch politicians, and they are tired of being ignored.”

Van Hollen, however, rebuked Price’s notion, saying the decision by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to call the House back into session was motivated by the need to preserve jobs.

“We’re coming back because it makes no sense from a jobs perspective and…from the prospective of our children’s education to have an insufficient number of teachers in the classroom,” he said.