Thursday, September 16, 2010 at 11:06AM | Geoff Holtzman
A new survey out today shows that voters, by a nine point margin, think Republicans will win back the majority in both the House and Senate this November.
According to the Politico/George Washington University battleground poll, 45% of voters believe the House will switch hands, compared to 36% who think Democrats will hold on to the majority. Moreover, 46% of those surveyed said they believe the Senate will turn red, while only 37% of voters said it will remain blue.
The poll was conducted last week with 1,000 registered “likely” voters. Its margin of error was 3.1%.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who participated in a panel discussion on the poll’s results Thursday, said the x-factor this November could be a boost in voter intensity on the part of Republicans and swing voters who went for Obama in 2008.
“This intensity of this dissatisfaction among Republicans and other persuadable voters will present strong challenges for Democratic candidates,” Goeas said. “This election provides an opportunity for these frustrated and angry voters to send a message to Obama via their Congressional and Senate votes.”
Indeed, certain sections of the poll show that Goeas and other GOP’ers have much to boast about. 43% of voters said they strongly disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress have done this year, with 41% possessing a strongly unfavorable view of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Moreover, half of those surveyed said they strongly believe the country is headed on the wrong track.
When it comes to President Obama, more strongly disapprove than strongly approve of the job he has done in office by a 38%-27% margin. Although 47% of those surveyed said they voted for Obama in ‘08, more voters said they’d definitely pick a generic Republican candidate over Obama if the 2012 presidential election were to be held today.
Yet, the news was not all bad for Democrats. 42% of respondents approved strongly of the president on a personal level, an important statistic given that Obama is expected to stump hard for Democrats in the coming weeks. By a 25%-11% margin, more voters blamed the country’s economic situation on Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush, than him. In addition, 38% said they strongly disapprove of the job being done by Republicans in Congress.
“This survey reveals the key fact that the Democrats are not facing the rejuvenated, freshly-branded, Contract-With-America era Republican Party of 1994; they are facing a Party still tarnished by the multiple—and recent—calamities of Bush economics, the war in Iraq, Sarah Palin, and an over-the-top and increasingly frightening Tea Party movement,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who also took part in today’s panel.
“The reality is that the election isn’t over by a long shot, and the Democrats still have ample opportunity to maintain their majority and keep the Republican victory laps to a minimum on November 2nd.”
Poll Reveals Good News For GOP
A new survey out today shows that voters, by a nine point margin, think Republicans will win back the majority in both the House and Senate this November.
According to the Politico/George Washington University battleground poll, 45% of voters believe the House will switch hands, compared to 36% who think Democrats will hold on to the majority. Moreover, 46% of those surveyed said they believe the Senate will turn red, while only 37% of voters said it will remain blue.
The poll was conducted last week with 1,000 registered “likely” voters. Its margin of error was 3.1%.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who participated in a panel discussion on the poll’s results Thursday, said the x-factor this November could be a boost in voter intensity on the part of Republicans and swing voters who went for Obama in 2008.
“This intensity of this dissatisfaction among Republicans and other persuadable voters will present strong challenges for Democratic candidates,” Goeas said. “This election provides an opportunity for these frustrated and angry voters to send a message to Obama via their Congressional and Senate votes.”
Indeed, certain sections of the poll show that Goeas and other GOP’ers have much to boast about. 43% of voters said they strongly disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress have done this year, with 41% possessing a strongly unfavorable view of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Moreover, half of those surveyed said they strongly believe the country is headed on the wrong track.
When it comes to President Obama, more strongly disapprove than strongly approve of the job he has done in office by a 38%-27% margin. Although 47% of those surveyed said they voted for Obama in ‘08, more voters said they’d definitely pick a generic Republican candidate over Obama if the 2012 presidential election were to be held today.
Yet, the news was not all bad for Democrats. 42% of respondents approved strongly of the president on a personal level, an important statistic given that Obama is expected to stump hard for Democrats in the coming weeks. By a 25%-11% margin, more voters blamed the country’s economic situation on Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush, than him. In addition, 38% said they strongly disapprove of the job being done by Republicans in Congress.
“This survey reveals the key fact that the Democrats are not facing the rejuvenated, freshly-branded, Contract-With-America era Republican Party of 1994; they are facing a Party still tarnished by the multiple—and recent—calamities of Bush economics, the war in Iraq, Sarah Palin, and an over-the-top and increasingly frightening Tea Party movement,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who also took part in today’s panel.
“The reality is that the election isn’t over by a long shot, and the Democrats still have ample opportunity to maintain their majority and keep the Republican victory laps to a minimum on November 2nd.”