July Statistics Indicate Unemployment Moderation, A “Good Sign,” Says Labor Bureau Commissioner

By Mariko Lamb, Talk Radio News Service

Keith Hall, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released data to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee Friday that indicated a moderation in unemployment, a “good sign” for economic improvement, he said.

According to the Bureau’s statistics, the unemployment rate remained relatively consistent at 9.4% in July. Job losses in wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing and financial activities industries continued, while losses in the hardest hit sectors, construction and manufacturing, increased. Employment in leisure and hospitality remained steady and health care employment increased, growing in line with the 2009 trend thus far.

Additional findings in the report show that minorities and the uneducated continue to suffer the most job losses, a trend that parallels unemployment statistics prior to the recession. “The trend is pretty much the same,” Hall said, “so when the overall unemployment rate goes up, it goes up by more for the minorities.”

Despite continued job loss, Hall said that the moderation in the past three months is a “good sign.” “While I would say we’re not in recovery yet, this is the path that we have to go through to get to recovery. We expect to see moderation first before we start actually getting improvement in the labor market,” he said.

80,000 jobs lost in March

Keith Hall, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics testified before the Joint Economic Committee on the March employment statistics. He reported that employers across all sectors of the labor market cut payroll by 80,000 in the month of March. This has cause the unemployment rate to rise from 4.8 percent to 5.1 percent in the first quarter. The total decline in the last quarter was 232,000 jobs. In his opening statement Hall said, "I would note that the labor market conditions started to weaken more than a year ago." He later added that 68,000 of lost jobs are in hosing-related industries.

There were only three members present. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), and Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) who acted as chairman. Schumer only stayed to make an opening statement saying that these numbers should serve "as a wake up call" to the Bush administration. In the questions both Brownback and Hill asked Hall to forecast the next quarter and comment on the policy context of the recent data. Hall repeatedly refused to project data or give an opinion on policy, saying that the numbers should speak for themselves. He refused to define the economy or the labor market as in a recession.



Construction jobs were the hardest hit, loosing 51,000 jobs in March. Since peak employment in September 2006, total construction employment is down by 394,000 jobs. Another sector that has decreased was manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs decreased by 48,000 and automobile manufacturing took half of those losses. In his written statement Hall reported, "The number of unemployed persons who were job losers continued to trend up. Job losers represented 54 percent of all unemployed persons in March, up from 48 percent 12 months earlier." 5,000 jobs were lost in the financial activities sector, which is normally considered a growth category.

Hall reported that the only sectors to add jobs were education and health care. In these sectors combined 42,000 jobs were gained. He said that overall this indicated that consumer spending was weak, making companies less likely to hire temps. He said that the labor market figures are consistent in what he described as "the general weakening of the country."