Is US Aid To Post-Election Egypt At Risk?

With the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice party likely to play an important role in the country’s next government, some observers are concerned the US Congress could cut funding to Egypt, one of America’s most important Arab partners and beneficiaries of foreign aid. 

US foreign assistance to Egypt is set to be over 1.65 Billion dollars in 2011, 1.3 billion of which is reserved for military aid. Other major areas of funding are economic development (246 million), Education (43 million) Democracy, Human Rights and Governance (30 million) Health (20 million) and Environment ( 10 million). 

Author and Council on Foreign Relations Middle Eastern Fellow Ed Husain says domestic political considerations and lack of knowledge about the Muslim Brotherhood could lead Congress to make a push for cuts, even if the preponderance of power will likely remain with the military after the election.

In June, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ileana Ros Lehtinen (R-FL) was quick to criticize Egypt’s military leaders for recognizing the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and threatened action. 

“The Muslim Brotherhood is committed to violence and extremism. Neither freedom nor justice will be advanced by any political party established by the Muslim Brotherhood.” she said in a June 8 statement . “United States policy must reflect this reality, and the Administration must not engage the Muslim Brotherhood, or allow direct or indirect U.S. assistance to benefit that organization.”

“Sadly there is a mindset and advocacy around Congress that flies in the face of facts. So the Muslim Brotherhood is being portrayed as a monolithic movement, the diverse strands of thought within the Muslim Brotherhood are not understood by most people on the Hill.” Husain said in a CFR organized conference call from Cairo. 

He says he is concerned the group’s long and often controversial history will make it an obvious target.

“Its easy to build up an argument and say “The Brotherhood supported Hamas, the Brotherhood supported the Nazi’s, the Brotherhood was a terrorist organization through out the 1940’s, the Brotherhood is an anti - US organization. Why should US taxpayers fund the Muslim Brotherhood?” Those are the kinds of arguments that are going to be thrown into the public space in the US and my fear is that it is going to be difficult to add caveat, nuance and balanced thinking amidst that storm.” 

Husein says regions of Egypt that have so far voted have done so peacefully despite a scuffle in high profile area of Cairo between an Islamist and Liberal candidate and a shoot out in the city of Asyut. He says he has visited 20 or so polling station over the past two days and that while he remains critical of the Brotherhood, its members are by far the most active and well organized.

“They are the only force out there that a) have a manifesto, b) have some kind of vision as what they want to bring about and c) have the mechanisms to do so.” 

Husain says he has been in contact with members of the Muslim Brotherhood’s three main factions and that the driving force behind its focused campaign is the faction of deputy leader Khairat el Shater, an engineer and successful banker who was imprisoned for more than ten years under the Mubarak regime. 

“He understands liberal economics, he understands capitalism, he was educated in Britain, he is not a man who is cut off from the rest of the world like some of the older leaders of the past.” Husain said of el Shater.

Husain says the Brotherhood has been consulting with the Turkish and Qatari governments and had reportedly hired a “top five” Western accountancy firm to help it devise policy mechanisms. 

“The vast majority of their leadership is dominated by people from engineering, medical and other professional backgrounds so they are by nature almost technocrats who are have given to managing large institutions.”

Hussein says the Obama administration has adjusted its policy towards the Brotherhood, since Secretary of State Hilary Clinton refused to meet with members of the group six months ago. 

He says the US is now engaging with its leaders, but the administration’s future relationship with the group remains unclear.  Husein says he believes Freedom and Justice officials will be looking for constructive engagement with the US as well as a possible free trade agreement, but that Congress’s likely hostility to the group could be a significant obstacle.