Iran is a malevolent, but manageable, threat
Congressman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) said that Iran is the most malevolent and dangerous threat to U.S. interest. As for diplomatic tactics, Pence hoped that the next President would not use direct negotiation because it is ineffective. All of the witnesses emphasized Iran’s desire to become the preeminent power in Middle East. Judith Yaphe said that Iran wants the U.S. to recognize its legitimacy and its right to be the great power in the area. Because of Iran’s expanded realm of power and threat, the issues of Iraq and Iran are not isolated. Therefore, consideration must be given to Iran’s response to any changes made in Iraq, as Yaphe said.
In addressing the question of how to end Iran’s nuclear threat, Yaphe said that there is little to lose in negotiations, but Jon Alterman emphasized that the U.S. must not approach talks with the objective of changing the Iranian government. Experts and congressmen have not agreed on a tactic with Iran. While Pence endorses stronger sanctions rather than direct negotiations, the experts contend that talks with Iran may be progressive as long as they are not too ambitious.
Ex-military men think it’s best to hold hands with China
Only three members of the group were present at the briefing: Gen. Ronald R. Fogelman, Adm. William A. Owens, and Gen. John M. Keane. Gen. Fogelman, former chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, explained that the idea behind Sanya was to have an open dialogue with China because it will be the single most important international relationship the U.S. will have in the 21st century.
The retirees were struck by the commonalities they found among their Chinese military counterparts. Adm. William A. Owens, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recalled “open, friendly” conversations with other military professionals that had also travelled the world, fought for a cause, and trained for most of their lives. Adm. Owens said that although the other men came from different cultures, they had a bond because of their experiences in the military.
Another lesson the group took home with them is that miscalculation results from no dialogue. For instance, Gen. John M. Keane, former vice chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, found that although the men had great respect for the U.S., they were ignorant about how earth devastating 9/11 was to Americans. The group was surprised to find that the Chinese leaders did not consider China a “superpower”, Gen. Fogelman said.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is deeply respected in China, but the PLA is not as mobile and efficient as the U.S. military, Gen. Fogelman said. The group stressed the importance of understanding what is important to China so that the U.S. does not make poor policy decisions. Gen. Fogelman suggested that the U.S. pay closer attention to events happening in Taiwan.