Hillary's Plan B Problem

So as we’ve explained the Democratic caucus is an interesting affair where viability or having 15 percent of the caucus goers in support of a candidate. Without that 15 percent supporters are forced to either recruit other caucus goers or abandon their candidate and support another one. There’s a very slim chance here in Iowa that any of the second tier Democratic candidates will be overwhelmingly viable. Dennis Kucinich has already said that his supporters should caucus for Barack Obama if he proves not to be viable at their caucus. Now imagine if Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden all said that. Now, they haven’t but if the mentality of second tier candidate supporters is anti-Hillary, they might support Edwards or Obama should their candidate not prove viable. No one can foresee how much of a difference this will make, but depending on the pockets of Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich, and Biden supporters it could be large enough to land Hillary Clinton second or third overall in the state.

The effect of a spoiler third candidate in the general election can sometimes be enough to sway the race, imagine if there were three or four of them. Strategy, possible coming out of the second tier camps, will be the name of the game tonight

The Ron Paul Approach

Sure, he's a second tier candidate. No, his scrambling around today won't get him more votes of people who are teetering on the Republican side. Instead of shaking hands and kissing babies and running all over Iowa, Ron Paul is addressing a lecture hall of medical students at Des Moines University. Speaking as a doctor and a politician, Ron Paul is focusing on inflation and blames government policies for the rising cost of healthcare.

Ever a libertarian, for a reduced government Paul says, "Healthcare isn't a right. Housing isn't a right...You have the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness and hopefully someday you will have the right to keep what you earn." He's appealing to young people who are looking forward to the highest national debt in decades. He's appealing to older people who need expensive procedures like heart surgery or pricey prescription medications.

Paul's solution is closing down U.S. military bases abroad. The savings from running those, he proposes, will be enough to reduce the national debt. His tag line is "freedom." Free of choice, freedom of the market. He says that the Founding Fathers were right, we should stay out of foreign entanglements.

This is just another example of Paul, cool as a cucumber, staying out of the melee and doing something unexpected. Giving a lecture for students, some of whom are voting today, some who are not instead of scrambling around Iowa, vote shopping.

More photos from Iowa

Check out more Iowa photos on Flickr!

Good Morn' Des Moines!

It's like Christmas all over again here in Des Moines, Iowa. There is a huge rush of last minute "caucus shopping," as candidates try to get high turn outs. Words like "viability," "polling" and "prediction" pepper every conversation. There is so much media here in Des Moines and all over the state that it is becoming the story in some places. The floor of Exhibition Hall at the Polk County Event Center is roughly the size of a football field and reporters from all the major networks have desk or tier or floor space. All around me they are speaking different languages--behind my space is the Jiji Times, I helped a Spanish blogger upload her pictures yesterday, I watched a live shot in French. The Iowa caucus is getting more attention today than most general elections in years past.

The numbers are incredible to think about, especially for a city known for its small town feel. Over 1,700 precinct sites all over the state, two caucuses, Democrat and republican for each precinct. Approximately $200 per expected caucus supporter spent by Romney, Clinton and Obama. $17 million straight out of Romney's personal wealth. One Iowa mom told me that she got 17 prerecorded telephone calls just yesterday alone. 36 hours spent on Iowa highways and byways by John Edwards. And yet only about 7 to 10 percent of the state's population will go out tonight and caucus- between 120,000 and 150,000 Democrats, 80,000 and 90,000 Republicans. (Though it should be noted that Independents can show up to either one and anyone is allowed to change their registration on caucus night.) And three is a magic number for either John McCain, Fred Thompson or Ron Paul. Since the 1970s no candidate has been nominated for their party that finished lower than third. McCain is ahead in most polls but Thompson and Paul have a fighting chance.

And of course one is a number that is the more important here in Iowa. Iowa is getting gall this attention because it is number one. Because we have been waiting since last February or earlier in the case of some candidates, we can’t wait for them to take their first test against voters. Iowans are the SAT of who gets to go to the big show. And they are proud of that. As much as they will be happy when the national media storms Des Moines airport Friday morning and heads to New Hampshire, they are glad to be the center of attention today, defending their primacy and the tradition of the caucus.

The candidates are working full schedules. They will be doing rallies and volunteer appreciation events and of course, caucus preparedness all day. They are expected to drop by sure-to-win precinct caucuses for their respective sides and then around 10:00 p.m., 14 hours from now those counts will start to roll in. If any candidate emerges triumphant it will be "a significant victory" or a "boost to New Hampshire" but if, for example, in the Democrats there is a close result with no overwhelming leader,the message will be that Iowa is just a stop on the road to Super Tuesday.

Pictures from Iowa

Check out more Iowa photos on Flickr!