Clinton Campaign Conference Call Notes

Harold Ickes & Phil Singer from Clinton Campaign on Conference Call
Saturday February 16th, 2008


Ickes: Said he had been around Democratic Presidential politics since 1968.
Served on rules committee and by-laws—have helped manage conventions

Several points— the race tied with 45 delegates—miniscule between them—18 jurisdictions yet to vote—1075 delegates up for grabs—neither will have enough pledged—Obama needs 340 of super delegates (Ickes calls them automatic delegates—under Obama’s projection then Senator Clinton needs 480.



Both of these candidates are going to need them – the supers/automatics to nail down nomination—automatics/ supers are supposed to exercise their best judgment---The Hunt commission decided as they could best win the White House

Many ways to elected delegates and the way Texas will decide them. There are 56 states and territories that elect delegates. What the press has overlooked is that these people are closely in touch with politics events etc. They are more in touch with the political process in this country. They are not divorced from the politics of the day. They have a sense of the institutional interest of the Democratic Party.

David Axelrod is a close personal friend. Axelrod said that all (super delegates /automatics should vote what is best for the party and country. Chairman Dean said that they should exercise their best judgment. Clyburn said that the supers/automatics are not there to mirror the popular vote. That was the intention of the Hunt commission when they added the supers/automatics

Mathematically impossible to reach the delegates for either nomination without the supers/automatics

Senator Clinton is urging her delegates to vote to seat Michigan and Florida on Florida—Obama broke pledge that he would not be campaigning. He bought national ads that also went into Florida. That was prohibited by the campaign. 1.5 million people voted there. In Michigan, Obama decided to curry favor with Iowa by withdrawing from Michigan. Obama got 55 pledged delegates. 600k voted in the Michigan primary. She wants to seat the delegates. Why should Florida not be heard at the convention—why should 1.5 million voters in Florida not get to be heard?—“we are going to win this nomination” in order to get this nomination we have to go to the convention.



In the general election both Michigan and Florida are important.

Nothing can be predicted with accuracy. Pundits predicted that Clinton would lose New Hampshire.

However, we believe that she will hold her own in Wisconsin. We expect her to win in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island.


She will close the delegate gap by March 5—PA suits her candidacy and by the end of June, she will be neck and neck with Obama

Question from the press: What do you say to John Lewis?—Ickes: Reasonable people can disagree about who will fare the best in Nov. This is a political operation; the states that he has won do not turn into Democratic states in the general election. turn to dems in the

Question on from the press: Why is Hillary better? What is your argument?
Ickes: We are in the peak of the ups and downs of the race and this going to be a close general election—Hillary has carried some key swing states such as Nevada, New Mexico and she appeals to women, Hispanics and lower income voters. In Arkansas, Arizona, NM and Ohio she looms large. Obama’s base relies on swing voters that may go with McCain. Obama has not been subjected to the full weight of media examination. When the GOP turns up the heat, the polls might not reflect that.

Question from the Press: Harold, did you vote to strip the delegates? Ickes: there is no change; I was not acting as agent for Mrs. Clinton. We had made rules, Rule 20 that has automatic sanction and we stripped the delegates. Those were the rules.

Ickes: This will be settled before we get to the floor—after the 7th of June she will have the majority of the delegates. On Tad Devine, Ickes said he did not cite one shred of authority.

Question from the press? A new caucus in Michigan? Ickes: No because in 2004 only 160,000 people voted in the “firehouse primary”. Over 600k have voted already. Fight not good for party or candidate—bitter fight not good—not well served by settling this at the convention. (Note: he said the opposite above) We will compete but see no need for a revote.

Question from the press: Credentials committee? Ickes: There are 150 votes plus appointments that have already been made. There are 177 votes. There may be a challenge before June 29th but there is no meeting set up yet and there is no challenge. 153 members come from the states and are apportioned by popular vote. For instance there are 17 members in California based on statewide votes so it is possible that Clinton will control the credentials committee.

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) speaks at a "Stand for Change" rally at the University of Maryland-College Park

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) held a “Stand for Change” rally today at the University of Maryland- College Park’s Comcast Center to a crowd of more than 18,000. The rally was organized by a group of college students known as Democrats for Obama The crowd was heavily dominated by college-age students, yet spectators of all ages were present. The crowd’s excitement did not wane for the more than two hours they waited for Obama’s appearance.

His speech was not focused on any one topic, but it was more of a crowd-pleaser aimed at rallying the people’s support. Obama deflected opponents’ comments about his lack of experience, jokingly stating, “I may be skinny, but I can fight.” He also distanced himself from Vice President Dick Cheney in response to the recent genealogical study which found that the two are distantly related. Senator Obama poked fun at Cheney, to much applause, saying, “Usually, when people do these studies, you want to end up being related to someone cool.”

Another interesting issue that Senator Obama discussed was that of education. He drew attention to the fact that aside from all of the current administration’s propaganda, many children were being left behind. The many topics addressed were the inability of intelligent students to afford higher education, teachers being forced to pay for school supplies out of their own pockets, and possible $4000 vouchers to cover some tuition costs for students enrolled in universities.

Back in the Saddle, Still on the road

The House is back and the Senate will be meeting pro forma for this first week of the first legislative session of 2008. There is still a bad taste in every one's mouth from the close of the last session and Bush's not-so-surprising veto over the break on the defense spending measure. The administration objected to a provision that might allow for victims of terrorism to bring lawsuits against the government of Iraq, leaving the Democratic House leadership to search for a quick fix and get the bill back to the president's desk before the Pentagon gets antsy about pay raises for service members. 

Two big interrelated E words to be aware of as this session gets rolling: Election and Economy. Members of congress tend to think and act differently in an election year, particularly in one where the economic outlook is "challenging" to say the least. The latest Gallup Poll shows that the economy was an increasingly important issue in the New Hampshire primary and forecasts that it will only continue to grow in importance as the nation marches toward Super Tuesday. The credit crunch, the housing market, the weak dollar, and the rising price of gas will be harder for Congress to ignore in this new session. Other leftovers include tax reform and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which is still stuck on immunity for telecoms that helped the administration. FISA is currently running on an extension and the Senate will have about a week to address it after they return to act on the legislation before the law expires. 

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said that success in this session would depend on whether "Bush Republicans" will choose to work with or against the Democrats. But the Democrats are not sending a warm welcome back to the Bush administration as they are expected to take up contempt-of-congress resolutions against White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten and White House Counsel Harriet Miers for their failure to appear before hearings in 2007. 

Meanwhile, things on the road are starting to look nastier than Congress, and that is quite a feat. Back and forth over the weekend about an ill-advised statement has led to even higher tensions in the triangular relationship between the Obama campaign, the Clinton campaign and the press. As much as political campaigns have progressed or appeared to progress issues of race and gender are still taking center stage over serious issues, though some sparring over Iraq was evident on the Democrat side. On the Republican side the focus was the economy and the "mini"recession of the state of Michigan. Mitt Romney is hoping to get a first place out of this primary, especially since he is a native son. Most speeches by Republicans in Detroit have focused on the auto industry and the disappearance of jobs from that sector. Romney is promising a roundtable on the auto industry with unions and industry leaders and reexamine jobs that some see as extinct.

And no matter where the U.S. automotive industry is going, it's been a heck of a road trip for us at Talk Radio News Service and it's only just begun. 

Hillary's Plan B Problem

So as we’ve explained the Democratic caucus is an interesting affair where viability or having 15 percent of the caucus goers in support of a candidate. Without that 15 percent supporters are forced to either recruit other caucus goers or abandon their candidate and support another one. There’s a very slim chance here in Iowa that any of the second tier Democratic candidates will be overwhelmingly viable. Dennis Kucinich has already said that his supporters should caucus for Barack Obama if he proves not to be viable at their caucus. Now imagine if Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden all said that. Now, they haven’t but if the mentality of second tier candidate supporters is anti-Hillary, they might support Edwards or Obama should their candidate not prove viable. No one can foresee how much of a difference this will make, but depending on the pockets of Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich, and Biden supporters it could be large enough to land Hillary Clinton second or third overall in the state.

The effect of a spoiler third candidate in the general election can sometimes be enough to sway the race, imagine if there were three or four of them. Strategy, possible coming out of the second tier camps, will be the name of the game tonight

The Ron Paul Approach

Sure, he's a second tier candidate. No, his scrambling around today won't get him more votes of people who are teetering on the Republican side. Instead of shaking hands and kissing babies and running all over Iowa, Ron Paul is addressing a lecture hall of medical students at Des Moines University. Speaking as a doctor and a politician, Ron Paul is focusing on inflation and blames government policies for the rising cost of healthcare.

Ever a libertarian, for a reduced government Paul says, "Healthcare isn't a right. Housing isn't a right...You have the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness and hopefully someday you will have the right to keep what you earn." He's appealing to young people who are looking forward to the highest national debt in decades. He's appealing to older people who need expensive procedures like heart surgery or pricey prescription medications.

Paul's solution is closing down U.S. military bases abroad. The savings from running those, he proposes, will be enough to reduce the national debt. His tag line is "freedom." Free of choice, freedom of the market. He says that the Founding Fathers were right, we should stay out of foreign entanglements.

This is just another example of Paul, cool as a cucumber, staying out of the melee and doing something unexpected. Giving a lecture for students, some of whom are voting today, some who are not instead of scrambling around Iowa, vote shopping.