Hillary’s Plan B Problem

So as we’ve explained the Democratic caucus is an interesting affair where viability or having 15 percent of the caucus goers in support of a candidate. Without that 15 percent supporters are forced to either recruit other caucus goers or abandon their candidate and support another one. There’s a very slim chance here in Iowa that any of the second tier Democratic candidates will be overwhelmingly viable. Dennis Kucinich has already said that his supporters should caucus for Barack Obama if he proves not to be viable at their caucus. Now imagine if Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden all said that. Now, they haven’t but if the mentality of second tier candidate supporters is anti-Hillary, they might support Edwards or Obama should their candidate not prove viable. No one can foresee how much of a difference this will make, but depending on the pockets of Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich, and Biden supporters it could be large enough to land Hillary Clinton second or third overall in the state.

The effect of a spoiler third candidate in the general election can sometimes be enough to sway the race, imagine if there were three or four of them. Strategy, possible coming out of the second tier camps, will be the name of the game tonight

Statements–It’s WaterLOO

I am reading/watching up on the final pre-caucus statements by the candidates. Fred Thompson posted at 17-minute video on YouTube. It's a little too "fireside chat" and a little to dry for anyone but the staunches Fred fans to want to watch all the way through. Huckabee is leveling three Ds against Romney calling him "desperate, dishonorable and dishonest," showing that the weirdly humorous Huck can throw an Edwards-like punch too.

Speaking of Edwards, much is being made over his quick response phone call to Pakistan President Pervez Musharif last Thursday. Though it appears from a run down of his recent rally Q&A that all he wants to do now is talk about Pakistan. Guiliani is saying a lot by what he is not saying in Iowa on caucus night. All but abandoning the caucus Rudy announced that he was going to be in Florida on January 3rd.

Clinton supporters, particularly Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio are feeling a little green over the superstar status of Iowa. Strickland told the Columbus Dispatch that Iowa's primacy "makes no sense." Clinton's campaign backed her away from those remarks. The Ron Paul camp is talking with its wallet as the Wall Street Journal reports $19 million in the war chest in the last quarter alone.

I witnessed a small but enthusiastic statement on my way to downtown this morning on the corner of Ingersoll and Martin Luther King as a seven or eight Chris Dodd supporters hopped around with their signs in the cold. Another statement I have been able to witness personally was a Richardson campaign rally yesterday. The governor said, in a rather honest assessment of his campaign that he was within striking distance of the top three.

McCain's latest video is a response to Romney's attacks on his immigration policy. In less than 30 seconds he lays down a bland message about border security and says, "I'll always be straight with you." Biden is looking for a "ticket out of Iowa" in order to get more press coverage.

Here's a great explanation on the polls, the most buzz worthy of which will come out tomorrow morning in the Des Moines Register.