Expert Downplays Report That Gaddafi May Soon Leave Libya

I just got off the phone with Bayless Parsley, a North African analyst with the global intelligence data firm, STRATFOR. Parsley told me that a report in today’s Wall Street Journal which suggested that Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi is “seriously considering” fleeing his war-torn country is likely not true.

The WSJ report quoted unnamed U.S. national security officials who said that Gaddafi may be on the brink of leaving the capital of Tripoli, where he is assumed to be hiding out. The report, however, also mentioned that similar intelligence “has been seen before,” a fact that Parsley noted during our conversation this afternoon.

“This is nothing new,” he told me. “The significant thing is to try to understand why it was that this was leaked to the Wall Street Journal when it was.”

Parsley confirmed my belief that White House and Pentagon officials may be trying to convince a “fractured” NATO alliance, frustrated with its inability to take out Gaddafi, that the end is near.

“The Americans are trying to create the perception that the mission is almost accomplished, and that if people can just hang on a little bit longer, then they will successfully accomplish their goal of regime change by assassinating Gaddafi.”

Parsley said that it’s a safe bet to assume that Gaddafi will remain in Libya until he is either captured or killed.

“If someone put out an International Criminal Court warrant for your arrest, would you leave the country?” he asked me. “Would you trust that any foreign government wouldn’t simply hand you over to The Hague at some point down the line?”

Parsley later told me that he doubts whether President Obama is all that concerned with a pair of Libya-related measures that were rejected today by lawmakers in the House.