GOP Will Take House, Dems Will Keep Senate, Say Analysts

By AJ Swartwood

The Republicans will likely take the House this November, but Democrats are expected to keep their majority in the Senate, according to E.J. Dionne Jr. and Thomas Mann, senior fellows of governance studies at the Brookings Institution.

“The weight of the evidence suggests that the Republicans will pick up somewhere in the order of 35-50 seats,” Mann, a Congressional scholar, said during a panel discussion at the Bookings Institution Monday. “The best of the models, if the had to pick a point, it would be 45 seats.”

Although this figure would give the Republicans the 39 seats they need to take control of the House, Mann added “Nothing is set in stone.” 

In the Senate, Mann said the estimate is realistically 5-10 seats changing hands, with the best bet being 7-8. Republicans need 10 for the majority.

Dionne, who is also a columnist for the Washington Post, said that he agreed with the numbers, but that there could still be some surprises.

“The election isn’t over yet,” Dionne said. “We have 4 weeks from tomorrow to go, and there are some signs … the enthusiasm gap is closing.”