Secretary-General issues pressing statement on swine influenza

The United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon, issued a statement on the swine influenza crisis in Canada, US, New Zealand and Mexico. He briefed reporters this morning on the seriousness of the illness on the international community. Swine flu, a virus that normally infects pigs, weakens the respiratory tract until death.

"During the last few days as you know, we have seen a spread of influenza virus in Mexico, the US, New Zealand and Canada." We are concerned it could cause a new influenza pandemic. We are trying to find out which way it will go."

Most of the deaths in Mexico were young and healthy citizens. Over 100 people have died and 1600 new cases identified.

"The UN system is responding quickly with Dr. Chan, Director -General of the World Health Organization (WHO) taking the lead. The alert pandemic is set at phase 2 buy may be set at phase 3 which indicates a wide spread."

WHO is in an emergency operation phase for twenty four hours. There are six cases in Canada. All the severe cases have been in Mexico. WHO experts are also helping the Mexico authorities identify an effective emergency health strategy to deal with the growing cases.

"Poorer nations are especially vulnerable. We must ensure they are not hit disproportionately. Countries needing additional resources will have them. So far our response has been an example of multilateral cooperation at its best."

Comments

[Barb Lamont]

In 1918:

In large U.S cities, more than 10,000 deaths per week were attributed to the virus. It is estimated that as many as 50% of the population was infected, and ~1% died. To compare, in "normal" (interpandemic) years, it is estimated that between 10-20% of the population is infected, with a .008% mortality.

The fact the current 'swine flu' has shown to be contagious is alarming. So far the virus has shown to have a 6% to 6.3% mortality rate. It may not seem like much, but please consider the following: The deadly influenza panic in 1918 had a mortality rate of under 1%.

This virus went on to kill tens of thousands of healthy people a day in large cities and up to 100 million people world wide.

Viruses, like this strain of swine flu, kill their host by over-stimulating active immune systems that are robust and healthy. That is why the victims in Mexico were between the ages of 20 and 45.

Some have said that no one in the United States have died from the virus, so we need not worry. Experts say it is only a matter of time. The virus is not prevalent enough to reach statistical significance in the United States, with only a handful of confirmed cases. 93.7% of all Mexicans with the virus recovered.

More cause for worry: The 1918 virus started off 'mild' before it mutated into a raging storm. It also does not mean we will see millions of deaths. It is too early to draw sweeping conclusions. Nevertheless, there is potential for a disastrous pandemic. If 50% of Americans catch this flu in the next two years, and the mortality rate stays at 6.3%, we would witness 20+ million deaths.

This strain of virus is more potent and more deadly than the virus that hammered the world in 1918 and 1919. Viruses come in waves. There are striking similarities to this virus and the virus that killed up to 100 million people in 1918. The first wave is historically more mild than the later waves.

In addition to this virus becoming more severe, it is mutating faster than previous virus that we have seen. In addition, this virus is nothing like we have ever seen before because it combines features from viruses natural in different parts of the globe. We are in uncharted territory.

If it follows the same path as the 1918 flu, we will see very damaging results. However, we must remember we are a global society now and the virus can spread quicker than we have ever witnessed in history. This is very concerning especially since the drugs we have now seem resistant.

While there have been no deaths in America, it is shadowed by the fact the common variable among the deaths seem to be age. While most American cases have involved the very young and very old (under 10 and over 50) the Mexican cases that ended fatally involved the robust and healthy (over 20 and under 45).

This virus kills the host by over-stimulating the immune system. The term that is used when the immune system over reacts is called a Cytokine Storm. It is usually fatal. During this “Storm” over 150 inflammatory mediators are released. This would account for the high mortality rate in 1918-19.

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