Tuesday
Feb102009
In Health Care Reform, We Don't Know What Works, But We know What Doesn't
Tuesday, February 10, 2009 at 4:55PM
In Health Care Reform, We Don't Know What Works, But We know What Doesn't
Coffee Brown,MD, University of New Mexico, for Talk Radio News Service
"We just have to try some of these, knowing some of them will fail," Director Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, told Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND). Elmendorf reinforced Conrad's statement that healthcare costs will rise from 16 percent of the GDP to 20 percent if nothing is done. One dollar out of five would then go to healthcare in 2020, and the total Medicare-Medicaid burden would rise to 52 Trillion dollars over the next 75 years if nothing were done and if that money existed, according to both Conrad and Elmendorf. This would occur within the lifespans of most of the children who are alive now.
Elmendorf told the Senate Budget Committee, that none of the projections in the CBO's report on the costs of medical reform are certain, that some are much more speculative than others, and that there is simply no way to know ahead of time which strategies will be most cost effective.
The most promising way to pay for some form of universal healthcare access,Elmendorf said, would be to completely or partially roll back tax credits for employer and personal health insurance premiums. "That saves the government money, but the cost is transferred to individuals," he said.
To achieve universal health coverage, it will be necessary to pool risks and to enforce and subsidize health insurance mandates, he said.
Medical insurance premiums increased by 78 percent during the same period,( 2003-2007) that wages increased 19 percent. So long as medical costs rise faster than wages, more of every dollar will go into medical care.
Chairman Conrad then pointed out that we pay almost twice as much, 8,300 dollars per person per year, as any other nation, yet we rank below 20th on international quality scales. Even within the U.S., he pointed out, the regions that spend the least tend to have the best outcomes. Clearly, he said, higher cost does not equal higher quality. To save healthcare, we need to put less, rather than more money into it, though he accepted that there may be transition costs.
Coffee Brown,MD, University of New Mexico, for Talk Radio News Service
"We just have to try some of these, knowing some of them will fail," Director Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, told Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND). Elmendorf reinforced Conrad's statement that healthcare costs will rise from 16 percent of the GDP to 20 percent if nothing is done. One dollar out of five would then go to healthcare in 2020, and the total Medicare-Medicaid burden would rise to 52 Trillion dollars over the next 75 years if nothing were done and if that money existed, according to both Conrad and Elmendorf. This would occur within the lifespans of most of the children who are alive now.
Elmendorf told the Senate Budget Committee, that none of the projections in the CBO's report on the costs of medical reform are certain, that some are much more speculative than others, and that there is simply no way to know ahead of time which strategies will be most cost effective.
The most promising way to pay for some form of universal healthcare access,Elmendorf said, would be to completely or partially roll back tax credits for employer and personal health insurance premiums. "That saves the government money, but the cost is transferred to individuals," he said.
To achieve universal health coverage, it will be necessary to pool risks and to enforce and subsidize health insurance mandates, he said.
Medical insurance premiums increased by 78 percent during the same period,( 2003-2007) that wages increased 19 percent. So long as medical costs rise faster than wages, more of every dollar will go into medical care.
Chairman Conrad then pointed out that we pay almost twice as much, 8,300 dollars per person per year, as any other nation, yet we rank below 20th on international quality scales. Even within the U.S., he pointed out, the regions that spend the least tend to have the best outcomes. Clearly, he said, higher cost does not equal higher quality. To save healthcare, we need to put less, rather than more money into it, though he accepted that there may be transition costs.
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