Monday
Jan022006
My 2006 predictions
Monday, January 2, 2006 at 3:00AM
By Ellen Ratner
First, some words of thanks as the old year departs. To the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, I think you heroic young people deserve a lot better than what your political commanders – many of whom never wore uniform except at prep school, have dished out to you. Nevertheless, I am grateful for your service and idealism.
To my readers – a patient lot, sometimes irritated with me, but almost always willing to debate the issues as issues – I only wish the political discourse between our two parties was as intelligent.
Finally, to Joseph Farah at WorldNetDaily – I doubt we would even agree on what time of day it is. Nevertheless, as publisher of WND, you represent the best of American journalism, allowing for healthy debate between all points of view. In that sense, WND is the perfect one-stop political-opinion-and-news shop.
OK, my conscience unburdened, let's get to my 2006 predictions:
Karl Rove, a descendent of a long line of stealthy, skillful and very lucky cats, is about to use up his "ninth political life" and be indicted by Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald over the Valerie Plame leak affair. Politics has become a little like gambling at Las Vegas – ultimately, the odds favor the house, and if you stay at the table long enough, you'll lose everything.
Contrary to his own wishful thinking, Sen. John Forbes Kerry, D-Fantasy Island, will not be a front-runner in the 2008 presidential election. The past is prologue – the Democrats haven't re-nominated a loser since Adlai Stevenson ran in 1952 and 1956 against Dwight Eisenhower. Twice bitten, shy for eternity, if I may paraphrase the old adage.
Mark Warner from Virginia may become the Democratic front-runner. While the current Democrat trio of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Howard Dean keeps liberals like me happy, it doesn't play too well in Peoria. But Warner has mastered the Bill Clinton game of tacking convincingly to the center – without Bill Clinton's political and personal baggage. In short, Warner has played very well in Peoria, and will likely be invited for a return engagement. Plus, he's a governor, and Americans historically prefer their presidents to be ex-governors.
Judge Samuel Alito, to the dismay of people like me, will be confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court. While this will unbalance the court for decades – abortion-rights advocates and civil libertarians had better fasten their seat belts (while the NRA and Bush administration can unfasten theirs) – it will happen in 2006. Yech!
Sen. John McCain, R-Self-Love, will write yet another book this year as he seeks to increase his public's adoration. (To the old adage "You can't be too rich or too thin," I'll add the words "or too adored.") Moreover, if Bush thinks McCain's been a pain in the derrier until now, 2006 will be the senator's year to become the president's vertigo, as he seeks to differentiate himself in advance of the 2008 election. That means sticking it to the president on any and every issue that he can.
Congress will remain under Republican control after the 2006 mid-year elections. I don't like this, but hiding from facts usually won't change them. The hard truth that Democrats must confront is that the tactics of trio Pelosi-Reid-Dean, while pressuring Bush (thankfully) to start bringing our boys and girls home from Iraq, was done in such a ham-fisted way as to make the president look like a patriot and the Democrats somehow look un-American. It's too bad, because just like the phony label "compassionate conservative," Bush will once again exploit a Democratic idea – drawing down U.S. forces in Iraq – for Republican advantage. For Democrats and libs like me, that means focusing our hopes on the 2008 presidential election.
Speaking of which, Hillary Clinton's prospects for the Democratic nomination are likely to become a lot murkier in 2006. That Hillary-haters from the right could be expected to attack her was always a given. But now, by tacking "right" on Iraq she has antagonized the anti-war left – a group of political warriors as committed, idealistic and well trained in "guerilla theater" as any.
Because of the new information age we live in, Hillary's problems may only get worse. In the old days, the Democrats could tack left to get the nomination and then tack right to win the presidency, just as Republicans tacked right and then left. But the Internet's memory is forever, and with the number of political blogs out there keeping score, what one says in a primary is likely to be used against one in the general election. As I like to say, "the more things change, the more they really change."
And with that, I'll stop and let 2006 roll in and do the talking. A happy, prosperous and healthy New Year to you all.
First, some words of thanks as the old year departs. To the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, I think you heroic young people deserve a lot better than what your political commanders – many of whom never wore uniform except at prep school, have dished out to you. Nevertheless, I am grateful for your service and idealism.
To my readers – a patient lot, sometimes irritated with me, but almost always willing to debate the issues as issues – I only wish the political discourse between our two parties was as intelligent.
Finally, to Joseph Farah at WorldNetDaily – I doubt we would even agree on what time of day it is. Nevertheless, as publisher of WND, you represent the best of American journalism, allowing for healthy debate between all points of view. In that sense, WND is the perfect one-stop political-opinion-and-news shop.
OK, my conscience unburdened, let's get to my 2006 predictions:
Karl Rove, a descendent of a long line of stealthy, skillful and very lucky cats, is about to use up his "ninth political life" and be indicted by Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald over the Valerie Plame leak affair. Politics has become a little like gambling at Las Vegas – ultimately, the odds favor the house, and if you stay at the table long enough, you'll lose everything.
Contrary to his own wishful thinking, Sen. John Forbes Kerry, D-Fantasy Island, will not be a front-runner in the 2008 presidential election. The past is prologue – the Democrats haven't re-nominated a loser since Adlai Stevenson ran in 1952 and 1956 against Dwight Eisenhower. Twice bitten, shy for eternity, if I may paraphrase the old adage.
Mark Warner from Virginia may become the Democratic front-runner. While the current Democrat trio of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Howard Dean keeps liberals like me happy, it doesn't play too well in Peoria. But Warner has mastered the Bill Clinton game of tacking convincingly to the center – without Bill Clinton's political and personal baggage. In short, Warner has played very well in Peoria, and will likely be invited for a return engagement. Plus, he's a governor, and Americans historically prefer their presidents to be ex-governors.
Judge Samuel Alito, to the dismay of people like me, will be confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court. While this will unbalance the court for decades – abortion-rights advocates and civil libertarians had better fasten their seat belts (while the NRA and Bush administration can unfasten theirs) – it will happen in 2006. Yech!
Sen. John McCain, R-Self-Love, will write yet another book this year as he seeks to increase his public's adoration. (To the old adage "You can't be too rich or too thin," I'll add the words "or too adored.") Moreover, if Bush thinks McCain's been a pain in the derrier until now, 2006 will be the senator's year to become the president's vertigo, as he seeks to differentiate himself in advance of the 2008 election. That means sticking it to the president on any and every issue that he can.
Congress will remain under Republican control after the 2006 mid-year elections. I don't like this, but hiding from facts usually won't change them. The hard truth that Democrats must confront is that the tactics of trio Pelosi-Reid-Dean, while pressuring Bush (thankfully) to start bringing our boys and girls home from Iraq, was done in such a ham-fisted way as to make the president look like a patriot and the Democrats somehow look un-American. It's too bad, because just like the phony label "compassionate conservative," Bush will once again exploit a Democratic idea – drawing down U.S. forces in Iraq – for Republican advantage. For Democrats and libs like me, that means focusing our hopes on the 2008 presidential election.
Speaking of which, Hillary Clinton's prospects for the Democratic nomination are likely to become a lot murkier in 2006. That Hillary-haters from the right could be expected to attack her was always a given. But now, by tacking "right" on Iraq she has antagonized the anti-war left – a group of political warriors as committed, idealistic and well trained in "guerilla theater" as any.
Because of the new information age we live in, Hillary's problems may only get worse. In the old days, the Democrats could tack left to get the nomination and then tack right to win the presidency, just as Republicans tacked right and then left. But the Internet's memory is forever, and with the number of political blogs out there keeping score, what one says in a primary is likely to be used against one in the general election. As I like to say, "the more things change, the more they really change."
And with that, I'll stop and let 2006 roll in and do the talking. A happy, prosperous and healthy New Year to you all.
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