Monday
Oct312005
Red meat for red-meat eaters
Monday, October 31, 2005 at 3:00AM
By Ellen Ratner
Before offering my predictions about what Friday's indictment of "Scooter" Libby means ("Scooter" is an Andover Academy graduate ... where do preppies come up with these nicknames?) let me first declare – as a liberal who, unlike some in the White House, passionately believes in the rule of law – that Scooter is innocent until proven guilty, and that he'll get his day in court (unless he cops a plea first, but more on that later).
But while Scooter's actions may not amount to guilt, they clearly add up to stupid, as in politically stupid. And as Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald made clear, the legal Sword of Damocles still dangles over Karl Rove's bald pate. In sum, the White House is risking the possibility that Libby might become a redux of John Dean (of Watergate fame) who drops a dime on his ex-compatriots in exchange for a little prosecutorial love, and that Rove may soon be devoting his enormous talents to developing brilliant "strategy" for winning the hearts and minds of grand jurors, rather than Red State voters.
And add this to the mix: Before the Libby indictment, Bush's poll numbers were already low from the lingering smell of Hurricane Katrina, the continuing saga of Iraq, the nomination of the now-withdrawn hack Harriet Miers, and gas prices so high that the SUV-driving base of the Republican Party would even consider nominating Noam Chomsky for president in '08 if he campaigned on one-buck-a-gallon gasoline.
So what's a beleaguered president to do? There are three things he must do immediately. First, he should consolidate his right-wing base. Second, he must consolidate his right-wing base. Third, he will consolidate his right-wing base. Given this, here are my predictions:
1. Red-state red meat for the Supreme Court. I don't know who Bush will nominate to fill the Court's open slot, but I know this – it won't be some mumbly-bumbly hackette or a tactful smooth talker whose IQ exceeds the combined brains of the Senate Judiciary Committee. No, Bush needs to rally his base, and that means picking a fight with Democrats. So expect a real right-wing brawler for nominee, some Bible-toting guy or gal who says-it-like-it-is, who writes an opinion on speeding tickets and includes dicta opposing abortion and gay rights. In short, somebody to rally the base.
2. Expect to hear the F-word. No, I don't mean anything profane. I mean, "f" as in "fence," as in "fence along the border between Mexico and the United States." You see, the Republican Party is like a guy who doesn't fear the coming economic depression because he's got a ton of gold buried in his backyard. And what is this Republican gold? Exploiting the immigration issue!
As average Americans suffer from rising interest rates, unrestrained globalization, Bush-beloved-but-greedy Arab-oil sheiks, exported jobs and weak unions, they, like most folks, tend to offload their frustrations on the lowest man on the totem pole. In our day, that low man is the illegal immigrant – who can't vote, is often forced to work under table, who looks different, sounds different, eats different food ... you know, the quintessential Other.
In fairness to Bush, this isn't something he'll want to do – inspired by Rove, he's been nurturing the dream of The Great Hispanic Republican Majority – but faced with survival, he'll do what politicians in sinking ships have always done: throw overboard excess weight in order to keep the boat afloat. At the moment, illegal immigrants are definitely Bush's excess weight.
3. Declare victory in Iraq and then withdraw. Shedding more precious American blood on behalf of Muslims who delight in shedding it ain't smart politics, as proven by Bush's declining poll numbers in support of the Iraq War. Here's the twist – in the old days, a president might swashbuckle when his numbers were down and the country was at peace, e.g., when Bill Clinton bombed the aspirin factory around the time of his impeachment. But now, we're already at war and it's an unpopular war, so it's likely that Bush will shake the olive branch rather than rattle the saber.
My prediction is that after the Iraqis elect a permanent government in December, President Bush will make a dramatic announcement of rapid troop draw-downs. (And faced with vengeful Shia and Kurds, once the United States is gone, the minority Sunnis should make sure their life insurance policies are paid up).
One thing about Bush: Somebody else always gets the bill for his mistakes – and you can bet that history is about to repeat itself.
Before offering my predictions about what Friday's indictment of "Scooter" Libby means ("Scooter" is an Andover Academy graduate ... where do preppies come up with these nicknames?) let me first declare – as a liberal who, unlike some in the White House, passionately believes in the rule of law – that Scooter is innocent until proven guilty, and that he'll get his day in court (unless he cops a plea first, but more on that later).
But while Scooter's actions may not amount to guilt, they clearly add up to stupid, as in politically stupid. And as Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald made clear, the legal Sword of Damocles still dangles over Karl Rove's bald pate. In sum, the White House is risking the possibility that Libby might become a redux of John Dean (of Watergate fame) who drops a dime on his ex-compatriots in exchange for a little prosecutorial love, and that Rove may soon be devoting his enormous talents to developing brilliant "strategy" for winning the hearts and minds of grand jurors, rather than Red State voters.
And add this to the mix: Before the Libby indictment, Bush's poll numbers were already low from the lingering smell of Hurricane Katrina, the continuing saga of Iraq, the nomination of the now-withdrawn hack Harriet Miers, and gas prices so high that the SUV-driving base of the Republican Party would even consider nominating Noam Chomsky for president in '08 if he campaigned on one-buck-a-gallon gasoline.
So what's a beleaguered president to do? There are three things he must do immediately. First, he should consolidate his right-wing base. Second, he must consolidate his right-wing base. Third, he will consolidate his right-wing base. Given this, here are my predictions:
1. Red-state red meat for the Supreme Court. I don't know who Bush will nominate to fill the Court's open slot, but I know this – it won't be some mumbly-bumbly hackette or a tactful smooth talker whose IQ exceeds the combined brains of the Senate Judiciary Committee. No, Bush needs to rally his base, and that means picking a fight with Democrats. So expect a real right-wing brawler for nominee, some Bible-toting guy or gal who says-it-like-it-is, who writes an opinion on speeding tickets and includes dicta opposing abortion and gay rights. In short, somebody to rally the base.
2. Expect to hear the F-word. No, I don't mean anything profane. I mean, "f" as in "fence," as in "fence along the border between Mexico and the United States." You see, the Republican Party is like a guy who doesn't fear the coming economic depression because he's got a ton of gold buried in his backyard. And what is this Republican gold? Exploiting the immigration issue!
As average Americans suffer from rising interest rates, unrestrained globalization, Bush-beloved-but-greedy Arab-oil sheiks, exported jobs and weak unions, they, like most folks, tend to offload their frustrations on the lowest man on the totem pole. In our day, that low man is the illegal immigrant – who can't vote, is often forced to work under table, who looks different, sounds different, eats different food ... you know, the quintessential Other.
In fairness to Bush, this isn't something he'll want to do – inspired by Rove, he's been nurturing the dream of The Great Hispanic Republican Majority – but faced with survival, he'll do what politicians in sinking ships have always done: throw overboard excess weight in order to keep the boat afloat. At the moment, illegal immigrants are definitely Bush's excess weight.
3. Declare victory in Iraq and then withdraw. Shedding more precious American blood on behalf of Muslims who delight in shedding it ain't smart politics, as proven by Bush's declining poll numbers in support of the Iraq War. Here's the twist – in the old days, a president might swashbuckle when his numbers were down and the country was at peace, e.g., when Bill Clinton bombed the aspirin factory around the time of his impeachment. But now, we're already at war and it's an unpopular war, so it's likely that Bush will shake the olive branch rather than rattle the saber.
My prediction is that after the Iraqis elect a permanent government in December, President Bush will make a dramatic announcement of rapid troop draw-downs. (And faced with vengeful Shia and Kurds, once the United States is gone, the minority Sunnis should make sure their life insurance policies are paid up).
One thing about Bush: Somebody else always gets the bill for his mistakes – and you can bet that history is about to repeat itself.
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