Iowa Preps For A Photo Finish

The Repubilcan caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish with three of the candidates being separated by just two percentage points. 

According to the latest poll by Public Policy Polling, the Iowa caucus will go down to the wire as Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are raking in 20, 19 and 18 percent of the vote, respectively. 

Romney and Paul have seen similar figures in Iowa in recent weeks, but the momentum is being controlled by Rick Santorum who has clawed his way back to relevancy in the last few days. 

In addition to Santorum’s surge is Paul’s fall. Paul was previously seeing numbers in the mid-twenties but that has fallen below 20 percent and below Romney. 

“It’s impossible to say who’s going to win Tuesday night,” said Dean Debman, President of Public Poling Policy. “If you think momentum will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Santorum. If you think having the most passionate supporters will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Paul. And if you think the ability to beat Barack Obama will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Romney.”

The remainder of the field has been quietly dwindling. After seeing strong national support, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is lagging behind with 14 percent support. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman round up the field with just 10, 8 and 4 percent, respectively.  

The results of PPP’s survey were based on the surveys of 1,340 likely Republican caucus voters on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. 

Santorum Surges In Iowa

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has dedicated much of his time and money trying to win over voters in Iowa in recent weeks, and it finally seems to be paying dividends. 

According to the Des Moines Register’s latest in-state poll, Santorum is quickly gaining ground on frontrunners Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Santorum now sits in third place in Iowa with 15 percent support, nearly a double-digit deficit after four days of polling.  

Romney and Paul rake in 24 and 22 percent support, respectively, and though Santorum has struggled to gain national notoriety in the Republican presidential primary, he has continued to climb in Iowa. 

In fact, Santorum has seen figures that look more promising than his four-day, 15 percent would lead you to believe. According to the poll, the order of the top three candidates in Iowa is rearranged in the last two days, with Santorum replacing Paul as the number two in Iowa.

In the first two days of polling, Santorum was barely seeing double-digit support with ten percent. In the final day of polling, however,  Santorum’s rise became more evident when he doubled his earlier totals, falling just one percentage point short of Mitt Romney’s 23 percent.  

The poll was conducted from Dec. 27-30 and results are based on the telephone interviews of 602 likely Republican voters.

Tea Party Underwhelmed By Current GOP Field

TAMPA — Conservatives will be paying particularly close attention to tonight’s Republican debate, the second of three scheduled for this month and the first ever to be co-hosted by the Tea Party.

At a pre-debate luncheon sponsored by the Heritage Foundation, voters listened to analysts explain what candidates must do to win the support of the Tea Party crowd. Most of the 150 or so in attendance raised their hands when CNN’s John King, who moderated the panel discussion, asked them whether they were satisfied with the current field. Moreover, only a handful said they wanted former Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin to enter the race.

That would appear to be good news for the current crop of contenders. Except that there are still some out there who question whether the candidates will truly represent the Tea Party’s interests.

For example, ever heard of Agenda 21? Probably not. But ask members of the Sutter Buttes Tea Party based in Yuba City, California. These folks argue that the plan, adopted by 178 nations at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) back in 1992, is allowing governments worldwide to force “green” lifestyles upon citizens. The issue most recently came up during a townhall event hosted by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who downplayed concerns over Agenda 21 after being confronted about it. Larry Virga, Coordinator of the Sutter Buttes Tea Party Patriots, told me that even the most conservative of candidates this cycle have not paid enough attention to the issue. He doubted that any of them have even heard about the program.

It’s extremely unlikely that the topic of Agenda 21 will surface either at tonight’s debate or any others that will follow. Candidates will instead be asked about their plans to grow the economy, strengthen America’s safety net programs and manage the nation’s wars abroad. In the end, the vast majority of those who align with the Tea Party will vote for a Republican — whether it’s Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin or anyone else — against President Obama next year.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll feel comfortable with their choice.

Larry Calabretta, who made the roughly one-hour trip down I-4 from Orlando, told me today that he doubts whether Republican leaders in Washington “get” the Tea Party. “I don’t know,” he said. “That remains to be seen.”

“Absolutely not,” added Billie Tucker, a leader in the First Coast Tea Party based in Jacksonville, Florida.

When I asked Calabretta about Perry, the presumptive frontrunner who leads the rest of the field according to recent polls, he sounded skeptical.

“I think a lot of [Perry’s success] is media driven,” he said. “Rush [Limbaugh] is right…you listen to what the media is saying and that’s who you want to steer away from.”

Journalists Size Up Possible 2012 Presidential Candidates

By Kyle LaFleur - Talk Radio News Service

Two years may seem like a long period of time but, in the political world, it is just around the corner, especially when it involves an election as critical as the 2012 race is gearing up to be. Though no candidates have officially thrown in their hats, a panel of journalists recently weighed in on prospective challengers to President Barack Obama in 2012.

On the Democratic ticket, Senior Political Analyst at The Washington Examiner Michael Barone found it unlikely that President Barack Obama would be challenged in the primary. Barone said it would be surprising to see someone challenge the first African American President in his own party because the average Democratic primary electorate consists of nearly 20 percent African Americans voters.   

“It does seem to me it is possible that there may be basis for a challenge from the anti-war left,” Barone said, including Howard Dean and Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold as possible candidates. 

Executive Editor at The Weekly Standard Fred Barnes said that a Florida Governor Jeb Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie ticket would be an “absolutely winning ticket,” but acknowledged that neither have shown interest in running.

As for former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who have been receiving media buzz as potential candidates, the panelists found that neither would hold much water. Chief Political Correspondent for The Washington Examiner Byron York said he felt that Romeny would not get enough people to “love him” and would not connect with a certain part of the Republican electorate as in past Presidental runs. As for Palin, York felt she was a “divisive figure amongst Republicans.”

“I do get a sense of this extreme hunger for somebody new to come in and save them,” York said about the Republican Party. 

Romney: Obama Timid Defender of Freedom

By Leah Valencia
University of New Mexico - Talk Radio News Service

Mitt Romney doesn’t like the way President Obama is doing business. The former Massachusetts governor and 2008 U.S. Presidential candidate, said that Obama’s mild approach to foreign affairs will create a rift between America and it’s allies.

“I think the President is indicating that he is a reluctant and timid defender of freedom,” Romney said Monday to hundreds at a forum hosted by the Foreign Policy Initiative and held at the W Hotel in Washington, D.C.

Romney serves as the Honorary Chairman of the Free and Strong America PAC. He said the Obama administration is leading America toward a position of neutrality where it will no longer be the the world’s leading “defender of Democracy”. The forum comes in the wake of Obama’s decision to cancel the European Missile Defense System.

“Not surprisingly, this has come to the dismay of our allies who believe they can no longer depend on the U.S.,” Romney said. “The American image should be represented by it’s ability to have substantial military might... and Obama is jeopardizing that power.”

Romney, a potential 2012 Republican presidential candidate, recently finished second among conservative voters in a straw poll ballot in the 2009 Values Voters Summit held on Sept. 19. The former governor did not say whether he will run, but said voters will decide the direction the country will take in the 2010 Congressional elections.