Thursday
May222008
New polls gage likely outcome of Election 2008
George Washington University held a conference call to release the findings of a new Battleground Poll that tested national attitudes on race, the economy, and the Iraq War in relation to the candidates involved in the 2008 presidential election.
Brian Nienaber, vice president of the Republican polling firm the Tarrance Group, said that with three out of four voters disapproving of the direction the country is headed, “you’d certainly be well-positioned to think that the Republican Party and its presidential nominee would be in a nearly hopeless position, even at this early stage in the electoral process.” He went on to enumerate what he believed to be presumed presidential nominee Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) strengths on issues like Iraq and national security, saying that he has his own “brand of change” to sell that will distance him from anti-incumbent sentiment without “repudiating” the Republican Party. Citing statistics from the poll analysis that support this, Nienaber said that 40 percent of Americans still believe the U.S. should maintain a presence in Iraq until military officials say it is safe to leave. He said that 56 percent of voters still like President Bush as a person, even if they do not approve of his Administration. Nienaber also cited the Democratic Party’s weaknesses, saying that 1 in 5 supporters of each major nominee did not plan to vote for the other if their candidate was not elected. Nienaber said that “as bad as things are right now,” the Republican Party can still look forward to “successes” in November.
Celinda Lake, president of the Democratic polling firm Lake Research Partners, said “there’s no question that there are enormous challenges to the Republican brand,” but that McCain is a “formidable candidate” that Democrats should not underestimate. However, she said that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is “overwhelmingly” winning over independent voters compared to McCain. Lake said that 87 percent of Democratic voters say that the Iraq war was not worth the cost, while 75 percent of Republicans still think it was. Lake also said that Republicans in Congress have even lower approval ratings than Bush, emphasizing the strength of voters motivated by a desire for a change of the party in power. While she said that the general presidential election “bodes well for the Obama ticket,” Lake maintained that “it’s not over until the fall.” She also said she thinks Obama can “bring home” Hillary supporters to the Democratic Party if he is the nominee.
Brian Nienaber, vice president of the Republican polling firm the Tarrance Group, said that with three out of four voters disapproving of the direction the country is headed, “you’d certainly be well-positioned to think that the Republican Party and its presidential nominee would be in a nearly hopeless position, even at this early stage in the electoral process.” He went on to enumerate what he believed to be presumed presidential nominee Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) strengths on issues like Iraq and national security, saying that he has his own “brand of change” to sell that will distance him from anti-incumbent sentiment without “repudiating” the Republican Party. Citing statistics from the poll analysis that support this, Nienaber said that 40 percent of Americans still believe the U.S. should maintain a presence in Iraq until military officials say it is safe to leave. He said that 56 percent of voters still like President Bush as a person, even if they do not approve of his Administration. Nienaber also cited the Democratic Party’s weaknesses, saying that 1 in 5 supporters of each major nominee did not plan to vote for the other if their candidate was not elected. Nienaber said that “as bad as things are right now,” the Republican Party can still look forward to “successes” in November.
Celinda Lake, president of the Democratic polling firm Lake Research Partners, said “there’s no question that there are enormous challenges to the Republican brand,” but that McCain is a “formidable candidate” that Democrats should not underestimate. However, she said that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is “overwhelmingly” winning over independent voters compared to McCain. Lake said that 87 percent of Democratic voters say that the Iraq war was not worth the cost, while 75 percent of Republicans still think it was. Lake also said that Republicans in Congress have even lower approval ratings than Bush, emphasizing the strength of voters motivated by a desire for a change of the party in power. While she said that the general presidential election “bodes well for the Obama ticket,” Lake maintained that “it’s not over until the fall.” She also said she thinks Obama can “bring home” Hillary supporters to the Democratic Party if he is the nominee.
Clinton Campaign pushes for Florida and Michigan
Ickes said that the campaign believes that all delegates from both states should be seated and have a full vote. Of the 55 uncommitted delegates from Michigan, Ickes said that all should be seated as uncommitted delegates. He said he is hopeful that this will be resolved in the Clinton Campaign’s favor at the Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws meeting on May 31.
Wolfson said that Clinton has a “winning map” in the general election against Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), despite recent portrayals of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) as the inevitable Democratic presidential nominee. He said this does not mean that Obama could not win the general election if he became the nominee, but that he believes superdelegates should choose Clinton as the stronger candidate.
When asked why Clinton’s position seemed to be that states could “break the rules” of the party with no real consequences, Ickes replied that the intention in excluding Florida and Michigan was to “send a message” to other states that there would be “severe consequences” if they did not comply with party mandates. He said that goal was accomplished since no other states broke the rules, and the states did suffer by being denied a full-fledged campaign.
Wolfson said voters turned out in unprecedented numbers and due to the high level of voting, every measure should be taken to make sure their opinions are honored and respected. When asked if he would still think the votes should be counted if the turnout was much lower, Wolfson said that there was “every expectation” before the primaries that the Florida and Michigan votes “would not be consequential.” He said people in states like West Virginia and Kentucky have turned out despite being told their votes would not matter, and that this means every vote should count.
Wolfson said that contrary to rumors, there has been no discussion between the campaigns about a possible joint ticket between the two leading candidates. He also said that Obama’s search for a vice presidential candidate was premature in light of the fact that he is not yet the nominee, but said it is not the Clinton Campaign’s position to judge how the Obama Campaign operates. He said that to his knowledge, Clinton was not currently looking for a vice president to run on her potential ticket.