Tuesday
Jul222008
IMF offers mixed outlook on global economy
The Brookings Institution held a discussion this afternoon regarding perspectives on the global economic landscape. The panel addressed concerns over the declining value of the dollar, rising inflation, the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and what these factors mean for the future of the global economy.
According to John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the IMF said that the Fund predicts global economic growth will drop an entire percentage point to 4 percent this upcoming year. In addition, Lipsky stated that a primary concern for the upcoming year should be increased inflation, particularly in developing economies.
Lipsky also expressed concern over the continued decline in the value of the dollar. While the United States has seen increased exports as a result of this decline, the drop has been one of the largest sustained episodes of dollar decline in the last 50 years. However, Lipsky said that despite drops in the value of the dollar, he believes it will retain its role as the dominant international currency in the long term, though perhaps sharing it with other powerful currencies like the euro.
Lipsky also predicted an economic slowdown in the EU. He said that this could potentially be more devastating than economic issues in the United States, due to a lack of coordination of financial markets within the EU.
Domenico Lombardi, nonresident senior fellow of the Brookings Institution and president of the Oxford Institute for Economic Policy expressed concern over IMF attempts to regulate currency imbalances. While the organization has been particularly useful with developing economies, Lombardi worries that highly developed nations like the U.S. may be less forthcoming with financial information, and less cooperative with policies and oversight from the Fund.
According to John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the IMF said that the Fund predicts global economic growth will drop an entire percentage point to 4 percent this upcoming year. In addition, Lipsky stated that a primary concern for the upcoming year should be increased inflation, particularly in developing economies.
Lipsky also expressed concern over the continued decline in the value of the dollar. While the United States has seen increased exports as a result of this decline, the drop has been one of the largest sustained episodes of dollar decline in the last 50 years. However, Lipsky said that despite drops in the value of the dollar, he believes it will retain its role as the dominant international currency in the long term, though perhaps sharing it with other powerful currencies like the euro.
Lipsky also predicted an economic slowdown in the EU. He said that this could potentially be more devastating than economic issues in the United States, due to a lack of coordination of financial markets within the EU.
Domenico Lombardi, nonresident senior fellow of the Brookings Institution and president of the Oxford Institute for Economic Policy expressed concern over IMF attempts to regulate currency imbalances. While the organization has been particularly useful with developing economies, Lombardi worries that highly developed nations like the U.S. may be less forthcoming with financial information, and less cooperative with policies and oversight from the Fund.
No “one-size-fits-all” solution for high gasoline prices
Chalk explained that developing and introducing high-efficiency combustion engines in conventional, hybrid electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is the most effective way to improve fuel economy in the near future. Chalk also explained that there are more than six million flexible-fuel vehicles on American roads that can utilize ethanol blended gasoline up to 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, yet those six million are only 2.7 percent of the 222 million total cars.
David Greene, a corporate fellow at the Center of Transportation Analysis, said that there are many things consumers can do themselves to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles, and there are also things Congress can do to help. Greene explained that the driver can have the greatest influence on a vehicle’s fuel economy, saying that typical drivers can increase their miles per gallon by about ten percent by curbing aggressive driving, observing speed limits, removing unnecessary weight from cargo compartments, planning ahead, and avoiding unnecessary idling. Greene also said that gasoline prices at $4/gallon provides a strong economic incentive to increase fuel economy for both car makers and car buyers, and by extending and simplifying incentives for hybrid vehicles new vehicle fuel economy would be raised and the transition to more efficient electric drive systems would be encouraged.
Steve Winkelman, the director of transportation and adaptation programs at the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP), explained that CCAP helps governments at all levels design and implement energy and climate policy solutions that balance economic and environmental concerns. He also explained that with limited travel choices, Americans are “left vulnerable” to high fuel prices and are “hit hard in the pocketbook” while the national economy suffers. Winkelman said that smart growth policies that encourage infill and transit-oriented development will be critical to reducing future gasoline demand, because “what we build now will last for a century” -- and will determine whether the next generation will have viable alternatives to paying high oil prices. However, Winkelman said that there is no “one-size-fits-all approach,” and that solutions must be developed locally and not dictated by the federal government.