IMF offers mixed outlook on global economy

The Brookings Institution held a discussion this afternoon regarding perspectives on the global economic landscape. The panel addressed concerns over the declining value of the dollar, rising inflation, the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and what these factors mean for the future of the global economy.

According to John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the IMF said that the Fund predicts global economic growth will drop an entire percentage point to 4 percent this upcoming year. In addition, Lipsky stated that a primary concern for the upcoming year should be increased inflation, particularly in developing economies.

Lipsky also expressed concern over the continued decline in the value of the dollar. While the United States has seen increased exports as a result of this decline, the drop has been one of the largest sustained episodes of dollar decline in the last 50 years. However, Lipsky said that despite drops in the value of the dollar, he believes it will retain its role as the dominant international currency in the long term, though perhaps sharing it with other powerful currencies like the euro.

Lipsky also predicted an economic slowdown in the EU. He said that this could potentially be more devastating than economic issues in the United States, due to a lack of coordination of financial markets within the EU.

Domenico Lombardi, nonresident senior fellow of the Brookings Institution and president of the Oxford Institute for Economic Policy expressed concern over IMF attempts to regulate currency imbalances. While the organization has been particularly useful with developing economies, Lombardi worries that highly developed nations like the U.S. may be less forthcoming with financial information, and less cooperative with policies and oversight from the Fund.

Healthy marriage and domestic violence programs share common ground

A discussion on “Promoting safety together: Domestic violence and healthy marriage programs” was held hosted by the Brookings Institution. Mary Myrick, project director of the National Healthy Marriage Resource Center (MNHRC), said that various healthy marriage programs and domestic violence organizations have consistently done more than what is required of them.

Oliver Williams, director of the Institute of Domestic Violence in the African American Community, moderated the discussion panel and said that there is something for everyone to learn from Healthy Marriage, Domestic Violence or Responsible Fatherhood programs. Anne Menard, executive director of the National Resource Center on Domestic Violence, discussed her research and emphasized that the quality of relationships matter. Menard said that children do better when they are raised by two parents with a stable economic background. She also went on to say that this does not necessarily imply children from single parent families fare worse in life. Menard said that there are several cases of children from single parent families becoming successful and well-adjusted.

According to Menard, one of the problems faced by domestic violence support centers is the fact that their programs are tailored to white middle class families. She said that more strategies are vital to cater to the culturally specific nature of various minority groups. Menard noted that, while they share common ground, healthy marriage programs should not be treated the same as domestic violence programs. When dealing to such issues, Menard said that ‘one size does not fit all’ and that there is tremendous diversity across all the programs.

A year of controversy for the Supreme Court

The Brookings Institution held a briefing on U.S. Supreme Court rulings where high-profile cases, such as gun control, Guantanamo Bay detentions, and the death penalty, were discussed. Brookings Fellow Benjamin Wittes moderated the Judicial Issues Forum. Wittes explained that the Supreme Court has experienced a varied last couple of terms making it hard to discern an aggregate pattern from their rulings.

Stuart Taylor, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution, talked about the recent gun control case. When dealing with this case, Taylor explained that it was the first time in history that the Supreme Court definitively interpreted the Second Amendment. Taylor said that the Court produced a ruling which struck down the Washington, D.C. gun control law, holding the individual right to bear arms. However, Taylor also explained that this ruling has only limited impact because there aren’t many really tough gun control laws.

Taylor also talked about the Guantanamo Bay case. He explained that this case produced the first decision in which the Supreme Court ever overturned a previous decision made by the President during a time of war. Congress re-established habeas corpus at Guantanamo, but the Court also made it clear that the U.S. government is not holding a single person illegally at the base. Taylor said that even though the decision has been very controversial, the most important part of it is the fact that it didn’t require anyone at the base to walk free. Taylor explained that Congress needs to design a system open enough for the public to know how scary some detainess really are.

Randolph Moss, a partner at WilmerHale, talked about the lethal injection case regarding a prison in Kentucky and the Eighth Amendment. Moss explained that in most states lethal injection is administered with a process of three different drugs. The argument in this case said that this process was not the most humane way. However, Moss said that there was not enough evidence or facts produced to show that the inmate experienced any unnecessary pain.

AFRICOM has diplomatic goals

The status and future of the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) was discussed at The Brookings Institution by Vice Admiral Robert Moeller, deputy to the commander for military operations. AFRICOM, currently a sub-unified command of the United States European Command (EUCOM), will assume control on Oct. 1, 2008. Tasks currently handled by other unified commands, such as presence in the Horn of Africa, will transfer to AFRICOM on this date. Moeller said that AFRICOM will provide a primary focus on Africa for the United States military, a focus that is currently split between three unified commands. Currently, 500 individuals work for AFRICOM with a goal of 1,300 by fiscal year 2009.

According to Moeller, AFRICOM will work to prevent conflicts by engaging African states through an inter-agency partnership. Alongside the Department of Defense, other areas of the US government, such as the Department of State and the Department of Commerce, will work to assist African states in the development of intelligence and infrastructure. AFRICOM will also provide humanitarian assistance when requested. Moeller stressed that AFRICOM means to aid African partners as needed and that the United States military will not involve itself “if not invited” since a military engagement would require a change in US policy.

Currently, the headquarters of AFRICOM is located in Stuttgart, Germany. Moeller said that an African location for AFRICOM may be realized in years to come but that current military representation in African embassies is a sufficient presence. In addition, Moeller said that future discussions with African partners would be the best way to determine if an increased presence on the continent is necessary.