OPINION: We're In For A Wild Ride!

This week, I asked our staff at Talk Radio News Service to give me their predictions for the New Year. Our staff members have a wide variety of backgrounds and range from liberal to conservative. So, here are their predictions for the New Year!

Justin Duckham, our youngest staff member and our Pentagon correspondent, says:

• After being denied a speaking spot at the 2012 Republican convention, Ron Paul will irk the GOP establishment by announcing plans to host a competing event on the same days. The drama surrounding the move and the resulting media narrative of a schism within the party will overshadow anything that happens at the Republican convention.

• Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley make the vice presidential shortlist, with one of the two ultimately landing on the ticket.

• There’s serious talk among House Republicans over removing Boehner from his role as speaker and replacing him with Cantor. However, Boehner maintains his position after the bulk of the conference realizes that a sharp turn to the right will alienate general election voters.

• Mark Kelly will run for the congressional seat currently held by his wife, Gabrielle Giffords.

Richard Miller, who is both our military correspondent and a military historian, has the following predictions for 2012:

• Obama will lose, period. It will not be as easy as some righties think, but he will not win. The history isn’t with him.

• No blockade of Homuz. The real story there isn’t intentional war but the risk of accident or action by a rogue IRG element looking to start a war and no red line between Washington and Tehran to settle things.

• The euro folds for good. It either splits into two currencies or just folds.

• Look for an October surprise by an increasingly desperate Obama. The only sustained bump he’s had in two years came when he killed Osama. He might ramp up a military confrontation against Iran.

• No-brainer: Republicans take the Senate and keep the House.

• Economy continues flat.

• Supreme Court hears Obamacare arguments in March and narrowly upholds the law. But if Obama loses, the law will be waived or repealed.

OPINION: Let's Move Congress Into The 21st Century

I go to a lot of Christmas parties. I love them! Because I cover politics, the discussion at these parties often turns to how Washington is broken. This year, the conversation reached a full crescendo. The parties were in full swing as the Senate passed the payroll tax bill and the House did not. “What is going to happen?” I was asked, as if I somehow could see the future. I gave my usual answer that I give whenever Congress is in town late during the Christmas season. “Congress doesn’t want to come back to Washington” or “The husband or wife is on the phone with the kids and the family pressure is on the member to get something done.” Sure enough, this year was no exception.

Members of Congress are people, even if they are also politicians. They have kids and grandkids and husbands and wives, and it does not sit well with them at this time of year to have them in Washington, D.C. There is the Christmas play, and Aunt Jane and Uncle Jim who have come to visit. The next-door neighbor has planned a cocktail party with your friends, and your spouse is not very excited to go alone. Pressure is on, and that bill that you felt so strongly about suddenly fades with the days of the season. It’s Christmas, and no one wants to be in Washington, D.C., far away from home.

So, what did Congress do this year? It went directly to the easiest trick in the book. It decided to do things by unanimous consent. It means a few members of Congress get up in the chamber and pass a bill. It only takes a few minutes and happens while the member is out shopping, going to the Christmas play, watching a sporting event or cooking with the family. There’s no heavy lifting.

Why, if this important bill passed with just a few members showing up in the chamber, can’t most of Congress’ work happen while members are home? I am not suggesting that all bills happen by unanimous consent, but if such a big bill can get passed while members are in their home districts, then why can’t others?

We live a very technological era. There is face recognition technology, fingerprint and iris readers, complicated sign in verifications. Why can’t we use some of these so that members can vote while at home? If the idea is to be in touch with the voters, then why does everyone need to come to Washington, D.C., for every vote?

I am not suggesting that we do a virtual Congress. There are real reasons for people to work together and make decisions and get to know other members from around the country. But, the money that would be saved by having Congress in town a whole lot less is staggering. Members would not be traveling back and fourth each weekend, and those terrible fundraisers that members have to go to every night would not happen. The influence of “power breakfasts,” aka interest groups seeking to influence legislation, would not be as prevalent. The wear and tear on the body of the members traveling home every week would also be saved.

We live in the 21st century. We no longer elect someone to stay in Washington for months at a time. The founders never intended for Congress to be a weekly commute. It is time we get real and looked at the realities of how legislation can get passed, the fundraising/influence peddling that now occupies members’ time in Washington and the broken game of partisanship in Congress. Have members vote from home, come to Washington for real legislative meetings and save us all from watching the dysfunctional show we saw this December. Let’s move Congress to the 21st century.

OPINION: A Glimpse At 2012 America

Time Magazine named its person of the year this week. It was the protester. I don’t have a problem with it naming a person of the year or the protester. It was a choice I agree with. But, I thought, well enough for Time magazine, good enough for me. It jumped the gun with its timing, as it does every year.

Usually I wait for my New Year’s predictions, but this year I decided to do it the week before Christmas and not wait till next week. So, here they are:

President Obama wins re-election:

I think the president will win this election handily. Why would I come up with that prediction when his polls are low and the country is not happy with his leadership? It is a simple answer.

If the nominee is Gov. Mitt Romney, and the president debates him, it is going to be obvious to the American people that he will not be the kind of leader they want in terms of creating jobs and moving the American people forward. George W. Bush, a graduate of Harvard Business School, was also supposed to be the businessman America needed. He got us into two expensive wars and busted the budget that had finally come to be balanced.

If the nominee is Newt Gingrich, then the American people will be treated to a great debate on the economy and the direction of the country. Speaker Gingrich is so smart that the debate will be really interesting and will engage the American people in the solving of our problems. In the end, however, I think the American people will decide that he is too much of risky deal and will go to the voting booth and select President Obama. If by some chance Ron Paul is the nominee, the American people, while agreeing with a lot of what he has to say, will feel he is too “out there,” and he will not be elected.

I think the president can go to bed this Christmas safely knowing he will be re-elected. He will have to work for it, but he will be re-elected.

Syrian “President” Assad will be deposed:

Year 2011, the year of the Arab Spring, saw changes in governments in Tunisia and Egypt and some major changes in others. By the most recent counts, more than 5,000 protesters have been killed. The U.N. Security Council is considering action, and clearly the various CIA-type organizations from different countries are helping the opposition. It may take some months, but with recent army defections in Syria, there is almost no way he can stay in power. The Arab League has rejected him, and with major trade sanctions there is no way he can survive. His best hope is to recredential himself as a physician and have a nice life on the millions of dollars he undoubtedly has socked away.

The Supreme Court finds that Obama’s health-care plan is legal:

Most of the justices believe Congress can make laws and that the laws it makes should be upheld. Although Congress might find some parts of the law to be unconstitutional, I think the law will move forward and stay law in 2014.

Congress will pretty much stay the same:

I don’t think the House will turn over to the Democrats, and I don’t think the Republicans will take back the Senate. The Republicans will pick up some seats in the Senate and lose some in the House, but look for it to be pretty much the same configuration it has been this election cycle.

Iran continues to make noise, but no action is taken except via drones:

Iran will play its version of the kids game “mother may I” and try to taunt the rest of the world, but no major progress in their goals will be made. Iran will continue to be an election hot point, but neither Israel nor the U.S. will make moves to be more aggressive, other than surveillance by drone.

The Keystone XL pipeline will stay the political hot potato it is now:

It will take much more of the up-front Democrat-Republican partisan wrangling than the unemployment insurance or the payroll tax reduction that has surfaced. Most Republicans agree on both issues, even though they are loath to say it. The real disagreement is over energy policy and the XL pipeline.

These are just a few of my predictions and I might add some in the next few weeks. Of all my predictions, I am sure of President Obama’s re-election. That might irk some readers, but we can check in next year and see if President Obama is re-elected.

TRNS Interviews: White House Advisor On Violence Against Women

TRNS Bureau Chief Ellen Ratner interviews Lynn Rosenthal, the White House’s Advisor on Violence Against Women. Rosenthal, the former executive director of the National Network to End Domestic Violence, was appointed to her current position in June of 2009.

During the interview, Rosenthal says that overall incidents of domestic violence are down, but says there are concerns regarding high rates of sexual assault and dating violence among young people. Rosenthal adds that the White House is working hard to prevent domestic violence, particularly on college campuses nationwide.

Click the “listen” link below to hear the full interview. (4:45)

Listen

OPINION: Cain's Self-Delusion

Like many of us who watch politics, we have all watched and weighed in on the spectacular rise and fall of Herman Cain. Most of the press folks with whom I spoke this week were incredulous as to how someone like Cain could even think of running for office, given his skirt-chasing.

I have now covered Washington politics for 20 years. That’s 20 years of seeing people self-destruct. Of course, I had quite a bit of experience seeing people self-destruct in my 20 previous years working in the mental health field. People with perfectly good lives would spin out of control with relationships or rage attacks or substance abuse. It was really quite a spectacular thing to observe.

Previously, I have written about people whose inner life does not match their outer life and, hence, the need to become active in political life to control their inner demons. These types of politicians have often come from very difficult backgrounds and seek to get approval by doing something good and having people vote for them and often adore them. It sets up a never-ending wish for more political praise and often more political power. However, the end result to that kind of inner conflict is more disconnect between the inner and out self and more need to match the two selves by doing something self-destructive. We have all seen this pattern of behavior.

The Herman Cain self-destruction may be something else entirely. It may be the bubble that goes along with power and business. Most of us have been involved with that kind of bubble in order to survive. We might be asked by a boss to render an opinion on his management technique or some new product. How many of us in a business situation have not told the truth to a manager or even a co-worker, fearing that telling them the truth would lead to a problem down the road for us?

How often does someone present us with an idea, a product or new way of doing something and we encourage our associate or boss to go ahead with it, thinking that there is no harm in trying but it is most likely a terrible idea? This is what I think happened to Herman Cain.

He came up through the ranks, but once he became CEO of Godfather Pizza, all reality must have been lost. It was most likely a rare if a never occurrence that anyone said, “Mr. Cain, that idea is off the wall.” If most people said that to their CEOs, they would not be employed by the company much longer.

After Godfather’s Pizza, Cain became a radio talk-show host. Some small market talk-show hosts take their own calls and hear a variety of opinions. However, in most large markets such as in Atlanta, the hosts have call screeners. That means hosts don’t have to hear any opinion they don’t want. In fact, shows often screen out demographics they don’t want, such as people who sound old. Herman Cain did not have to be confronted on a daily basis by people from whom he did not want to hear.

It is true that the Internet has now provided people with the opportunity to immediately comment on a program or written commentary they don’t like, but talk hosts and writers don’t have to read those comments. Unlike a call or an opinion given to a co-worker or boss that is verbally rendered, written opinion can just be ignored.

The self-delusion that took over candidate Herman Cain is an example of what is a problem in business management and often in politics. People surround themselves with a “yes” culture, and even the CEO who wants to hear the truth might not because people are afraid to let them understand reality. It happened to Bill Clinton in the White House. No one wanted to warn him about his wanton eyes. It has happened to many members of Congress when staff can see scary behavior and bad decisions. It clearly happened to Herman Cain. Maybe there needs to be a 9/11 style campaign directed to the candidate’s staff: “If you see something, say something.” It might prevent the soap opera we saw this week and restore some sanity to future self-deluded politicians.