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At a discussion on the Housing Crisis and Lessons for Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institute today, International Monetary Fund Economic Counselor and Director Simon Johnson predicted a “mild contraction” in the U.S. economy this year followed by a “relatively slow recovery” next year. Johnson discussed the link between housing and mortgage finance and said that the link between monetary policy and housing is stronger because of recent governmental intervention in the current crisis.

IMF Senior Economist Roberto Cardarelli said that over the last four quarters, residential investment has contributed 56% to the decline in U.S. GDP, “and by that standard, we are very much in a recession environment in the United States.” Cardarelli said another cause for concern is the impact of housing prices on the decline in consumption, which further stunts economic growth. He also emphasized that inflation rates need to change in order to stabilize inflation and minimize loss.