Talk Radio News Service: News, Politics, Media

By Ellen Ratner
In three short months, the country will be graced (cursed?) with a Republican and a Democratic candidate for president. Sure the race will still technically be in primary season, but hey, there haven't been any surprises at conventions since . . . who can remember? But if you want official, by September '08 you'll have official.

In the meantime, not one presidential wannabe from either party has said word one about the real issue that is likely to obsess voters one, two and possibly three years hence. And barring (heaven forbid) another 9/11, that issue is not Osama, the global war on terror or the Iraq war.
And what's the real issue? Well, to quote from my favorite temporarily retired politician, "It's the economy, stupid."

While the candidates are boasting who will withdraw from Iraq faster, provide health insurance for more people, or keep more foreigners from crossing our borders and driving our streets, the economy is tanking and big time. This last week was like a shot in the arm – of cyanide. General Motors took a $39 billion write-down this quarter, it's largest in history. Sure, it was a one-time charge, but GM still lost $1.6 billion for the quarter. Citicorp, Merrill Lynch and now Wachovia bank have been gasping for air because of write-downs on subprime mortgage losses. (Didn't it ever occur to anyone not to invest in something that had "subprime" in its name?) And the average Jack and Jill, who really vote, have watched as their mutual funds and 401ks melt down. Once again, as with the crash of 2000, it looks like retirement is not just around the corner – or the corner is farther away than their financial GPS indicated.

Meanwhile, America's plans to bring stability to the Middle East have instead resulted in awarding the Gulf plutocrats and Iranian mullahs oil, the price of which has zoomed to $100 a barrel. And Bush hasn't even invaded the place yet.
What you've got here is the perfect storm gathering for a recession. Gas goes to $4 and $5 per gallon. Everything that uses energy to heat, run or manufacture also inflates in price. Meanwhile, the stuff that Jack and Jill used to borrow against – their home and their stocks – in order to pay for his and her Harley Davidsons, the vacations or much-needed health care is all going to decline in value. But while the house is not worth what it was, and the stocks have shrunk, the mortgage payments are still due, and the margin debt with the broker has still got to be serviced.

So figure it out – consumer spending, the one thing that has kept the Chamber of Commerce smiling for the last decade, is about to go the way 8-track videocassette.
This doesn't require any Wall Street wizardry – just about every recession since World War II has been preceded by a decline in the housing market. And for those of you who are sadly trying to sell your homes presently, you know this isn't a decline – it's the Little Big Horn for sellers.
The dollar is trading so low that the Canadian dollar is now worth about the same. Most baby boomers can't even remember the last time that was true. Of course, Wall Street is paying attention as it does with any issue that affects their year-end bonuses.

The people who aren't paying much attention are the presidential candidates. This should be a time that they shout the gas price situation from the roof tops, have photo ops beside abandoned and foreclosed homes and visit factories which have to help their workforce find ways to get to work because of high gas prices. Instead, it has been so quiet that you can hear a pin drop. So what we get from the candidates is what we're going to forget about during the next year – whether we need to make the Middle East safe for the League of Women Voters, whether John Edwards can convince the public that his 38,000 square-foot house is really good for the poor or whether Rudy can shout "kill the Arabs" so loud that his right constituency will forget that he's mainstream on every other issue.

Barring another 9/11, this election's real issue will be the economy. And whoever can make their case for an economic recovery will win the White House. Then-candidate Bill Clinton won the election with "it's the economy, stupid," and if a recession begins during 2008, Hillary Clinton will be in a good place to do the same. With budget surpluses during the Clinton administration, Americans remember good economic times. They disliked "Slick Willy" but they liked the extra change in their pockets.

Republicans have pushed tax reductions, and that made some inroads, but it won't be enough this time. The election is going to go to the candidate who can address middle class jobs, checkbooks and energy bills. So far, nobody's doing it. But they will be, and soon. Personally, I can't wait.
This is the normal stuff of normal American elections, and I'd like to feel normal again. The war, abortion, immigration, gun control and the rest are important for voters – but those and $2 won't even buy you a cup of coffee.